Week 5 NFL Odds: Lookahead Lines Report
Each week of the season, I'll provide a first glance at the upcoming NFL slate through the lens of lookahead lines. Lookahead lines offer a sneak peek at how bookmakers value teams before the start of the week, without the influence of the recency bias that comes after watching eight hours of football earlier in the day. It's also an opportunity to act before the games are posted and sharpened on Sunday evening- after the previous week's games are complete.
Friends don't let friends bet NFL sides on game day. I understand the appeal of getting action down on a game about to kick off, but please, for the love of all things sacred, don't do it. I understand that most casual bettors out there don't have time to comb through every news blurb and injury report the moment it comes out. It's difficult for most bettors to feel informed early in the week, or even more, right when next week's line is posted on Sunday evening for the following week's games.
In my opinion, the only way to consistently put yourself in a position to gain positive expected value (+EV) while betting on NFL sides is to beat the closing line. This is easier said than done.
Sportsbooks gradually increase the limits they let bettors get down as the week progresses, indicating that the book feels they've priced the game correctly. So unless you're waiting later in the week because you're betting five to six figures on a side, your +EV increases if you can get down on a number before it's sharpened by the whales.
Depending on the bookmaker, and bettor for that matter, you may or may not be able to get the type of action down that you'd like, depending on your unit sizing. The key is understanding where the value is on the board in any given week, which is easier to do once you know the opening number. The limits are lower in this lookahead window, but that's not a problem for about 95% of you reading.
When I take a position on a lookahead line, I believe the current number will beat the closing line. It's an effort to get ahead of the market movement to land the best of the number. Basically, I'm parlaying my handicap. In essence, if I'm right in my Week 4 evaluation of the team and market, I will have an advantage in predicting where the line movement will come first in Week 5.
For reference, I'll use the initial odds released by Westgate back in April to show you how the game opened. Then, I'll note the consensus for each current Week 5 lookahead line at DraftKings, with the spread listed based on the home team.
| Game | Opening Line | Current Line | Opening Total | Current Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers @ Falcons | -3 | -3 | 44 | 44 |
| Jets vs. Vikings | +3.5 | +1.5 | 44.5 | 42.5 |
| Panthers @ Bears | -5.5 | -4 | 42 | 42 |
| Ravens @ Bengals | -1.5 | +1 | 46.5 | 47 |
| Dolphins @ Patriots | +4 | -2 | 45 | 36.5 |
| Browns @ Commanders | +3 | -1 | 43.5 | 42.5 |
| Colts @ Jaguars | -2.5 | -2.5 | 47.5 | 46 |
| Bills @ Texans | -1.5 | -1 | 48 | 47 |
| Raiders @ Broncos | -1 | -1 | 41 | 39.5 |
| Cardinals @ 49ers | -9.5 | -7 | 47 | 47.5 |
| Packers @ Rams | -1.5 | +3 | 48.5 | 46 |
| Giants @ Seahawks | -3.5 | -6 | 43 | 42 |
| Cowboys @ Steelers | +1.5 | +1 | 43 | 42 |
| Saints @ Chiefs | -8 | -6.5 | 44.5 | 45 |
Week 5 Lookahead Lines Takeaways
- Bye Weeks begin this week.
- Week 5 also begins the string of early Sunday morning games in Europe, so adjust accordingly.
- It matters less early in the season, but I'm always on the hunt for scheduling and travel advantages. For the most part, these things are already baked into the number, but I believe there are instances each week that aren't accurately accounted for in the market.
- I'm including game totals this season and looking for any edge we can exploit. I prefer team totals over full-game totals, and while we don't have that information specifically, it can be derived from the spread and total, so we know the range to expect.
Bye Weeks: Lions, Chargers, Eagles, Titans
Week 5
[subscribe_betting]
Panthers @ Bears (-4)
The Panthers showed a pulse with the quarterback change in Week 3, and the market has responded with pro-Panthers line movement in weeks 4 and 5. It's clearly been a frustrating start for Caleb Williams and Chicago's offense, but they're getting healthier, and this is about as soft of a strength of schedule stretch as any team in the league has all season. Even with the offensive struggles, this defense is legit and offers a much tougher test than the red carpet that the Raiders rolled out last weekend.
Ravens @ Bengals (+1)
This game was always going to be an important one, but at this point, it's a borderline 'Loser Leaves Town' matchup in Week 5. That's a bit of hyperbole, but it'll be increasingly difficult for either team to make the playoffs if they lose this one. I worry about Cincinnati's defense holding up against Baltimore's strong rushing attack, and you're lying to yourself if you think Joe Burrow is firing on all cylinders right now.
Dolpins @ Patriots (-2)
The Patriots are favored!! A six-point shift in the market (and nearly a 10-point dip in the total!) due to the uncertainty at quarterback for Miami, and the Patriots have shown a pulse, which exceeds my preseason expectations for them. While there are questions about who'll be healthy enough to take snaps for Miami, there are also questions about New England's quarterback situation, and I anticipate this will be the first start of Drake Maye's career.
Colts @ Jaguars (-2.5)
I might look to hedge a bit here after playing Jacksonville to start 0-5 at 15/1 in the preseason, something I discussed on multiple episodes of Move The Line this offseason. The negative momentum is starting to snowball for head coach Doug Peterson and quarterback Trevor Lawrence, but perhaps this beaten-up Colts defense is what they need to get back on track.
Bills @ Texans (-1)
This is the second of three straight road games for the Bills, a tough stretch against three potential AFC playoff teams (Ravens, Texans, Jets). I'm interested to see if the Texans can bounce back in a big way in Week 4 and win by margin against a scuffling Jaguars club. I doubt this moves too much, but it could float out to -2 or -2.5 if the Bills struggle badly against the Ravens in Week 4. Either way, it's not getting to -3.
Cardinals @ 49ers (-7)
The 49ers offense, despite all of the injuries, has still been elite despite the team's 1-2 start. Defensively, this team has been medicore at best. They're 30th in rush defense EPA allowed heading into Week 4, and they're middle of the pack against the pass. Arizona's offense ranks inside the top-7 in yards per drive, points per drive, and percentage of drives that result in a score. I'm not sure if they cover here, but it's likely Cardinals or nothing for me. However, I'm more intrigued by the over despite it moving out to 47.5.
Packers @ Rams (+3)
It's hard not to be bullish on the Packers after they survived and thrived during their two-game Malik Willis window at quarterback. With Jordan Love set to return in Week 4, I think we can see this get out to Packers -4 or -4.5 if Love and company look sharp against the red-hot Vikings this week. A Packers team total will also be something I'm looking at closely.
Saints @ Chiefs (-6.5)
Interesting shift in how we perceive these teams after just a few weeks into the season. The Chiefs are undefeated and should handle a depleted Chargers club in Week 4, but they haven't flashed much offensive upside yet. The Saints have shown an offensive ceiling, which has been one of the biggest surprising storylines through the season's first month of play. I think the Chiefs will continue to improve as the season progresses, but they haven't been winning by a margin. This might be a total bet for me if it stays under 47.
