Monotone's Week 3 Best Bets: Week 3 NFL Player Prop Bets

We are back for another crack at the NFL slate after last week's article resulted in a small profit. Week 3 is here, and we have plenty of action for an exciting weekend. In today's article, I break down the rushing upside for a couple of superstar quarterbacks, along with a plethora of other player props. It's still a great time of the year to get early value on players with new roles that aren't being reflected by the sportsbooks: find out who I'm backing to do just that.

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NFL Props

Rhamondre Stevenson o2.5 receptions -139

(-130 BR/MGM, -139 C, -145 DK, -155 FD) - Risk 0.69u to win 0.5u

The Patriot's O-line is not only awful, but they also had to deal with multiple starters listed on the injury report, with OT Vederian Lowe and G Sidy Sow ruled out. They have already allowed the second-highest pressure rate on the season and this profiles as a prime bounceback game for the Jets front four.

Per beat reporter Andrew Callahan:

Patriots opponents have blitzed them just 6 times over 2 games. Despite that, the Pats have allowed a pressure rate of 45.9%.

They also are tied for the lead in quick pressure rate allowed, which is pressure allowed in under 2.5 seconds, according to MB Fantasy Life. Even if they wanted to throw the ball down the field, the O-Line actually isn’t allowing the time. In addition, you have the worst WR group in the NFL going up against arguably the best secondary in football, especially with Reed and Carter practicing in full. Brissett will need to get the ball out extremely quickly, and Stevenson has run at least 20 routes in both games this season, with Gibson seeing surprisingly minimal passing game usage (21 vs 4 routes last week).

When Stevenson recorded 20+ routes last season, he was over this number in 3/3 games. It seems like the sportsbooks haven't caught up with his role versus Antonio Gibson. The game plan will be run, run, then run some more… but likely trailing and put in a negative script; they should rely on Stevenson through the air enough to cash this ticket.

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Kyler Murray o34.5 Rush Yards -105

(-105 DK, -111 CZR, -110 MGM/365) - Risk 1.05u to win 1u

Teams will need to come in game planning for the elite Lions rush defense, which limited the Buccaneers to 70 yards on 23 carries (3.0 YPC) & the Rams to 83 yards on 22 carries (3.3 YPC). While ARI has really leaned on James Connor, this will be the toughest test by far, and some of those extra carries should be up in the air. I’m expecting ARI to use Kyler’s legs as a way to keep DET’s defense on their toes, and with Hutchinson and that D-Line dominating, we should see a couple of extra scramble opportunities (already two 20+ yard scrambles this year).

DET is also playing the third-most-man coverage in the NFL, which is good for mobile quarterbacks and helps open up some of those downfield rushing lanes. Baker Mayfield even highlighted this as going 5-34-1 last week. In 2023, DET barely saw any mobile QBs, but they still had success:

• Fields 12-58
• Fields 18-104
• Jackson 9-36 (357 passing, extreme blowout)
• Mahomes 6-54

We also saw Love & Purdy clear 35+ yards with chunk runs despite not being mobile QBs.

Kyler had cleared 50+ rushing yards in both games to start the season. Far removed from the injury that stunted his mobility, he looks fully healthy, playing some of his best career ball. In a game with the highest total on the slate, I think Kyler will be on track to cover that number again in a very good matchup against a pressure-filled man coverage-heavy Detroit team.

Jalen Hurts o9.5 Rush Attempts

+105 365, -120 DK/MGM, -128 FD playable to -140. Split my bet at 365/DK so played half a unit on +105 & -120

Going back to a familiar play from last week, in arguably a better matchup against a Saints team with a lot of shootout potential. Last week reaffirmed my belief that the only way Hurts doesn’t get near this number is in a situation where they are blowing out a team. Without A.J. Brown, the Eagles will need to lean even more heavily on the ground game of Saquon Barkley + Hurts.

The designed runs have been through the roof, with 10+ in each of the first two games, but I think we could see even more scrambles in this one. Saints are coming in ranked top 3 in defensive EPA per dropback & rush, and if things aren’t materializing, then he may need to rely even more on his legs. Always can sneak in some extra carries with tush pushes & kneel-downs as well. With the Saints putting up back-to-back 40+ point games & the Eagles defensive struggles, we could see some extra possessions in a high-scoring shootout.

Rashid Shaheed o46.5 Rec Yards -117

(46.5 CZR -119/MGM -115, DK 48.5 -110) - 1.17u to win 1u

Really surprised we aren’t seeing a number in the low-mid fifties after his dominant start to the season. While my first inclination was to fire on the longest reception, I do think there is enough value in his increased usage in the screen/short-yardage game, where I’m comfortable just going to yards.

Rasheed has an insane 18.0 ADOT (6th highest in the NFL), posting 59 & 70-yard receptions in back-to-back games. Interestingly, though, his average route depth is the lowest it’s been in his career (down from 9.0 L2 seasons to 7.4). While Fangio’s two-high usages will look to eliminate these explosive plays, they’ve still struggled in that department & Shaheed has enough underlying usage to overcome that now that he isn’t just a deep threat. Sitting at a team-leading 23% target share, I think the sportsbooks aren’t giving him enough credit for his new and improved role.

The final tidbit is the Saints are running far more 2WR sets than any other team in the NFL, condensing the target share even more between Olave and Shaheed. I don’t think he will catch a 50-yard pass every week, but I do think he should be priced at over 50 yards every week. Would play this up to 50 or pivot to longest completion o22.5

Dare Ogunbowale o1.5 Receptions +125

1u to win 1.25u (MGM, +123 CZR, +120 DK/365)

This seems like a very low number for a unit without both Mixon & Pierce, where Dare profiles as the clear pass-catching option in the backfield. In the last game, he played 45% of snaps and even took over for Akers late after a fumble. He played 20 snaps vs 13 for Akers (and Dare even had an 18% share in Week 1, the pass-catching role isn’t new). In the game, he posted 2 catches for 20 yards with an impressive 86.5 PFF pass-blocking grade (something that could earn him extra snaps). Flores is known for creative blitz packages with high levels of 2-deep zone behind it, that defense has created the league’s highest pressure rate (46.2%). Strouds YPA drops a full yard under pressure, and checking down + getting the ball out quickly will be key here. We saw Singletary go 4-15 (with Tracy/Gray adding 2 catches) and Juszczyk 3-19 & Mason 1-4 last week.

De'Von Achane o23.5 Rec Yards -110

-110 MGM/365, -120 DK, -139 CZR With @Noonan, playable to 27.5 or pivot to 3.5 receptions

While the Miami offense takes a hit with Skylar Thompson in at QB, Achane might actually get a boost. Thompson possesses a 27% career RB target share, a nice increase from Tua’s 18%. RBs (nasty committee of Gaskin/Mostert/Smith Jr) combined for 5, 13, 5, and 6 catches in his 4 appearances with 20+ pass attempts.

Achane has already posted 76 and 69 receiving yards on 14 catches through two games, and finds himself in another trailing gamescript as a 3-point dogs. Running a route on 52% of dropbacks (which could increase with Mostert potentially back) but still has an elite 30% TPRR.

The Seahawks also have one of the best outside CB combos in Witherspoon and Woolen, who have allowed the 2nd fewest WR yards thus far. This should funnel even more targets to the lethal backfield weapon who can also flex out to the slot. Love this matchup for one of Miami’s best weapons.

David Montgomery o53.5 rush yards -105

Playable to 57.5u risk 1.05u to win 1u

Love targeting Mongomery in games where they will likely be leading, and there is no better way to slow down this Cardinals offense than some classic Dan Campbell x David Montgomery ground and pound. We saw him highly involved in the first game of the season, but Gibbs took over in a trailing gamescript in Week 2 where Goff threw the ball over 50 times. As long as this team is comfortable in a neutral/leading gamescript then I trust them to exploit the biggest mismatch in this game, which is the Lions O-Line vs the Cardinals D-line. Montgomery's profile is perfect for wearing down a below-average Cardinals defense as they control time of possession and keep that explosive offense off the field.

Trey Benson u14.5 rush yards -110

Risk 0.55u to win 0.5u (FD/DK/365, -115 MGM/CZR )

Among all RB’s with 10+ carries, Trey Benson possesses the highest stuff rate in the NFL (71%) and couldn’t even cash this with the perfect blowout game script against the Rams recording 11 carries for 10 yards. I expect his workload to look much more like Week 1 where he had 3 carries for 13 yards. Only this time he gets his toughest test yet against a strong Lions rush defense. They should continue to be a pass funnel ranking 24th in epa/dropback and 20th in dropback success rate & as 3-point dogs ARI might not be able to run as much as they want. Benson is also in a weird middle ground where he isn’t even really eh RB2, with Demarcado getting way more involved on passing downs. Still u15.5 on rivers line got bet typing this.

Justice Hill o1.5 receptions/Bengals ML +100

Risk 0.5u to win 0.5u (+100 DK/365, -103 FD)

Hill has recorded 8 catches through two games, hitting this number in both matchups. The Ravens have a very clear weakness, the offensive line. This is unfortunate because that’s the exact strength of the Cowboys, ranking 3rd in pressures & first in QB knockdowns thus far. The result of this mismatch should lead to Jackson locking in on his short-yardage targets, like Andrews/Likely/Hill, who even has a 14% target share thus far. 15 & 28 routes so far, with that kind of volume it’s hard to not see him cash this in a good matchup with a close game script. On the Bengals side, I’ll have a lot of exposure this week with survivor, going against a WSH unit with the worst secondary in football. While some advanced stats like WSH I really think that’s overvaluing QB scrambles and checkdowns in garbage time. Daniels has looked deeply uncomfortable in the pocket and I trust Lou Anarumo to make his life difficult. WSH could possibly keep it close early with running + TOP but as soon as they fall behind it’s over.