NFL Spread and O/U Picks: Hunter's Divisional Weekend Best Bets

Wildcard Weekend went 2-1 on the week for +2.89 units. I tanked the 2-0 Wildcard Weekend by trying to be a little greedy with a late Buccaneers team total over. They moved the ball well (6.5 yards per play and a 79.2 series conversion rate), but they fell victim to only having the ball for 44 plays. Only 7 games left in the season as a whole. Let’s finish strong.

2024 NFL Week Divisional Weekend Sides and Totals

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Bet #1: Baltimore Ravens ML +104 v Buffalo Bills (graded at FanDuel, Pinnacle has +107, BetMGM has +105)

It's no secret these offenses are both in the top 3 in the league, but defensively, the Ravens are better both against the run and against the pass and are 6th in defensive DVOA versus the Bills' 11th DVOA rating. While they are 14th on the season in EPA/Dropback, they made some secondary lineup changes, and since Week 10, they are 1st in EPA/Dropback and 2nd overall in EPA/play.

Offensively, the Ravens are 1st in offensive DVOA on the season. While the Bills are second, the gap between the Ravens and the Bills is the same distance as the Bills to the 13th-ranked Eagles. I don’t want to put a ton of stock into the Ravens' first match against the Bills because the Bills didn’t have Taron Johnson, Terrel Bernard, or Matt Milano in their Week 4 matchup. They will get to take that on a Bills defense that has been 24th in EPA/Dropback since Week 10, and 14th in defensive DVOA. Without Zay Flowers, the Ravens should be using two-TE sets and taking advantage of the poor cover grades all 3 of the Bills' linebacker corps bring to the table.

Risk: 2.41 units to win 2.5 units

Bet #2: Philadelphia Eagles -6 -110 v Los Angeles Rams (graded at Circa, most US Books have the same except Fanduel and ESPNBet at -6.5 -105)

I started writing this up yesterday and saw that Dallas Goedert missed practice due to an illness, so I thought maybe there is a chance that the line would move and/or Goedert may not play. The line didn’t react at all. Odd, as Goedert adds value over his replacement in both the receiving and run-blocking game. Shoutout to Brenden Deeg (@BrendenDeeg_ on X) for the stat that Eagle's run game is .163 EPA/Rush with him on the field and .057 EPA/rush without Goedert. It could be the edge in a game where the 6th best-rushing offense by DVOA gets to line up against the Rams’ 21st-ranked rush defense.

Many times this season, when talking about the Eagles offense, I talk about getting pressure on Jalen Hurts and how effective a team can be in that facet. The Rams blitz at the 20th-highest rate in the league and get pressure at the 21st-best rate. I know they dismantled the Vikings' offensive line last week, but the Eagles’ offensive line is still an order of magnitude better than the Vikings' unit.

The Eagles' defense plays a style that is different from what Stafford shredded last weekend. Stafford is one of the best QBs in the league against the blitz, but the Eagles blitz at the 5th lowest rate in the league. McVay has also been one of the ‘establish the run’ coaches with his team 24th in Pass Rate of Expectation on the year. However, the Eagles’ are 2nd best defense in the league in rush DVOA. I think there is a good chance at a game state where the Eagles can get a lead early in the game and can keep the ball mostly out of the hands of Jalen Hurts.

This late in the season, edges aren’t huge. I make this game PHI -6.9.

Risk: 2.2 units to win 2 units

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This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks and those from the rest of the betting staff. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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