Week 2 NFL Odds: Lookahead Lines Report

Friends don't let friends bet NFL sides on game day. I understand the appeal of getting action down on a game about to kick off, but please, for the love of all things sacred, don't do it. I understand that most casual bettors out there don't have time to comb through every news blurb and injury report the moment it comes out. It's difficult for most bettors to feel informed early in the week, or even more, right when next week's line is posted on Sunday evening for the following week's games.

In my opinion, the only way to consistently put yourself in a position to gain positive expected value (+EV) while betting on NFL sides is to beat the closing line. Sportsbooks gradually increase the limits they let bettors get down as the week progresses, indicating that the book feels they've priced the game correctly. So unless you're waiting later in the week because you're betting five to six figures on a side, your +EV increases if you can get down on a number before it's sharpened by the whales.

Each week of the season, I'll provide a first glance at the upcoming NFL slate through the lens of lookahead lines. Lookahead lines offer a sneak peek at how bookmakers value teams before the start of the week, without the influence of the recency bias that comes after watching eight hours of football earlier in the day. It's also an opportunity to act before the games are posted and sharpened on Sunday evening- after the previous week's games are complete.

Depending on the bookmaker, and bettor for that matter, you may or may not be able to get the type of action down that you'd like, depending on your unit sizing. The key is understanding where the value is on the board in any given week, which is easier to do once you know the opening number. The limits are lower in this lookahead window, but that's not a problem for about 95% of you reading.

When I take a position on a lookahead line, I believe the current number will beat the closing line. It's an effort to get ahead of the market movement to land the best of the number. Basically, I'm parlaying my handicap. In essence, if I'm right in my Week 1 evaluation of the team and market, I will have an advantage in predicting where the line movement will come first in Week 2.

For reference, I'll use the initial odds released by Westgate back in April to show you how the game opened. Then, I'll note the consensus for each current Week 2 lookahead line at DraftKings, with the spread listed based on the home team.

Lookahead Lines Takeaways

• It matters less in Week 2, but I'm always on the hunt for scheduling and travel advantages. For the most part, these things are already baked into the number, but I believe there are instances each week that aren't accurately accounted for in the market.
• Week 2 is "Overreaction Central," where the general public makes concrete assumptions after just 60 minutes of football the week prior. We all fall victim to it, so check yourself before clicking 'submit' on anything in Week 2.
• I'm including game totals this season and looking for any edge we can exploit. I prefer team totals over full-game totals, and while we don't have that information specifically, it can be derived from the spread and total, so we know the range to expect.

Week 2

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Bills @ Dolphins (-1)

This is a healthy total, sitting on the key number of 51, down from the opening 51.5, which I'd love to see come back. These early season contests down in South Florida are never ideal for clubs coming from less tropical climates. It's obviously still warm all over the country, but the humidity in Miami hits differently. We've seen fireworks at times in this inter-division matchup, but these clubs play slower than you think. The last three times these teams played in Miami, two of which were in the September heat, the total did not exceed 40 points.

Buccaneers @ Lions (-6.5)

This is a rematch of last season's surprising NFC Divisional matchup, won by Detroit 31-23. I'm extremely bullish on the Lions this season and quite dubious about the Buccanneers' ability to repeat last season's success. Laying 6.5 is a bit rich, but it is my lean, though a strong Week 1 performance at home against the Commanders could improve the overall sentiment in the market on Tampa Bay. I lean toward Detroit here, but I'm going to watch this line. A shaky showing against the Rams could drive this down to 5.5.

Colts @ Packers (-4.5)

I think these clubs play in two of the Week 1 spots that are most ripe for overreaction, and this line at -4.5 is indicative of that. This is the bookmakers throwing their hands up a bit, knowing that this line could move down to -3 or up to -6, depending on how things play out during the opening week.

Jets @ Titans (+4)

If you're bullish on the Jets, I think jumping on this line now is advisable. The Titans aggressively built what appears to be a pass-centric attack this offseason. There are still questions and concerns about the offensive line, and this is a bad matchup against a strong Jets defense. Titans quarterback Will Levis could take a step forward in Year 2, but the high pressure-to-sack rate that plagued him in college followed him to the NFL, and his turnover-worthy play rate from a clean pocket, per PFF, was the third-highest in the league. That's a tough recipe against a Jets defense that can lock down receivers on the outside and bring pressure from all levels.

Seahawks @ Patriots (+3)

This moved from -2.5 to -3 over the past week or so and presents New England's best opportunity for a win in the season's first two months. Their schedule is a murderer's row of playoff teams and Super Bowl contenders, a cruel fate for a rookie head coach and the league's worst roster.

Situational bettors will likely lean into the West Coast team traveling east in the early window on Sunday, but I need more than that to back New England, even out to -3.

Browns @ Jaguars (-2)

Back in 2000, author Stanford Wong published "Sharp Sports Betting." The book included a detailed analysis of NFL teaser bets. Wong discovered that certain teased point spreads consistently exceeded the 70.71% threshold for profitability. He found that if a tease passed through the key numbers 3, 6, and 7, it was likely to be a profitable teaser. For example, teasing a team from +1.5 to +2.5 up to +7.5 to +8.5 or teasing a team from -7.5 to -8.5 down to -1.5 to -2.5 proved profitable. Wong's backtesting revealed that teams teased through these key numbers collectively won 76.1% of the time. These types of bets became known as "Wong teasers."

By now, you see where I'm going with this one. I like the Browns in this spot, likely on the moneyline, but if this number holds, they'll make an excellent Wong teaser leg.

Rams @ Cardinals (+2.5)

I have these two clubs much closer than this line indicates, so I'm happy to take the points with the Cardinals, but I'm still going to wait. The total of 48.5 is a bit higher than I'd like for a Wong teaser leg, but this could be something to pair with Cleveland, as noted above.

I'm worried about this Rams defense in 2024. The unit way exceeded expectations in 2023 but lost Hall of Famer Aaron Donald along with defensive coordinator Raheem Morris, who deserved Coordinator of the Year honors after taking Donald and a bunch of 3rd-round-or-later guys to the playoffs. This total is now at 48.5, up 2.5 points from the 46 at open.