First Round March Madness Bets from Connor Allen
Playing in bracket pools is awesome but betting on March Madness adds another layer of fun. Every year I do both and if you are looking for bracket advice, check out my free article where I highlight historical trends that can help you choose a winner.
Throughout the tournament, i’ll be releasing bets in our discord which is included in our betting subscription! Use code: “MM10” to get 10% off a year of everything on 4for4 including bets, projections, breakdowns, tools, Fantasy Football Rankings, and so much more!
I always cite domestic sportsbooks along with the odds, and how much i’m risking on each bet.
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First-Round March Madness Bets
The first round of the tournament drew some interesting matchups. I have already released multiple plays and will continue to add more throughout the week and tournament!
Tennessee vs St Peters 1H U61 (-110 CZRS, -120 at FD fine at 61.5, -115 61 DK last option)
This is another matchup with an elite defense squaring off against a terrible offense in a game that could be slower. Tennessee is 3rd in adjusted defensive efficiency and St. Peter's is 306th offensively while also ranking 345th in tempo and 350th in effective field goal rate. This means they play slow, don't take good shots, and don't make them.
Meanwhile, St Peter's defense is not completely bad! They are 77th in adjusted defense and 21st in effective field goal rate allowed meaning they have forced opponents to take tough shots. If we don't adjust their defense for their opponents, their raw defense is 12th! If we get even a little bit of defense here from St Peters this game could be unbelievably low scoring. As I have mentioned in previous posts, 1H unders in the first round of games are hitting 59% of the time blindly since 2011 (H/T SGP/DaltonKates).
Risk 1.10 units to win 1 unit
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St Mary's vs GCU 1H under 61.5 points at DK and 60.5 FD
St Mary's is only allowing 26.6 first half points per game this season, 3rd best in the nation. They rank top-15 in defensive efficiency, play super slow (358th in pace), and get a Grand Canyon opponent who is 51st in adjusted defensive efficiency but is 10th in effective field goal rate allowed. Offensively the antelopes are just 63rd in adjusted offense and rank 101st in effective fg rate. With both teams playing good defense and a slow pace this is a perfect fit for a 1H under. As I mentioned before, 1H unders historically already at a near 60% clip in the first round of tournament games.
Risk 1.10 units to win 1 unit
Auburn -12.5 (-110 at FD)
Loved this nugget from ClevTa: “Yale is 84th in kenpom. Auburn has faced 18 teams ranked 80th or worse and are 18-0 and have not won by less than 14 pts against any of them. That includes 7 gms vs tms ranked 80th-95th. They did lose to #79 App st on the road which is the only tm lost to worse than 30th.” I also really like Auburn’s profile and would be placing futures on them if they didn't have Uconn as a likely roadblock in the Sweet 16.
Risk 1.10 units to win 1 unit
Samford +7.5 at FD (-120)
One of Kansas’ best players Kevin McCullar is out for the tournament and he has been massively impactful. We also don’t know if Hunter Dickinson will be at full strength. Per Evan Miya they fall from 18th to 48th without Mccullar. Meanwhile Samford presses nearly 40% of the time which could cause issues for Kansas.
Risk 1.20 units to win 1 unit
Morehead State +12 (-110 CZRS) vs IL
Morehead state has the exact profile of a team I want to back against a big spread here. On paper their adjusted metrics don't look that good. But they rank 35th in effective FG rate offensively and 9th defensively. Meaning they take good shots and don't allow easy ones on the other side. On the other side, Illinois ranks 55th and 48th in those same categories. Morehead state also plays insanely slow, ranking 356th in average possession length. One thing MH State struggles with is turning the ball over but Illinois is among the worst teams in the league at forcing turnovers, ranking 360th.
Risk 1.10 units to win 1 unit
Iowa State-SD State First Half U65.5 (-120 at FD, 65 at DK)
Iowa State has played elite defense against national contenders all season and they now draw SD State who is 79th in raw offensive efficiency and outside the top-100 when adjusted for opponent.. Dalton Kates researched 1H unders in the first round as a trend and in the last 20 years they are hitting close to 60%. Add in some matchup edges plus both teams forcing long possessions for opposing teams (both ranked 280th+ in average possession length) and this first half could be wildly low-scoring.
Risk 1.20 units to win 1 unit
Oregon Moneyline (+110 DK)
Oregon to Make the Sweet 16 +470 at FD
I threw in a bonus bet here since I love Oregon's profile with multiple upperclassmen coming off a dominant run in the Pac-12 tournament and wins over Arizona and Colorado. They now draw an overrated South Carolina team that plays slow and doesn’t do anything particularly outstanding.
The round after they would likely draw Creighton, another team with a slightly overrated profile due to their “late-bloomer” status that Ken Barkley has shown to lose at an insanely high rate early on.
Risk 1 unit to win 1.10 on Oregon ML
Risk 0.25 units to win 1.175 units on Oregon Sweet 16
Northwestern +2.5 -110 at Caesars
FAU is massively overrated after a deep run in the tournament last year and i've been looking for a way to fade them. This Northwestern team is inconsistent but has a lot of good pieces who match up well against FAU.
Risk 1.10 units to win 1
