SharpClarke's Week 9 NFL Bets
Week 9 in the NFL this season is going to be difficult to navigate. With four marquee matchups that are absolutely must-watch, that leaves a lot of games with major injury question marks, quarterback uncertainty, and just bad football. Of course, every game has a price, and that's what we must evaluate as bettors. I anticipate a lighter week this week, but I see a couple of spots with perceived value. This article provides my analysis for my weekly bets as I document them in the 4for4 Discord. For access, you'll need a 4for4 Betting Subscription. Good luck if you follow along!
NFL Week 9 Bets
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NYJ +3.5 (-110) v. LAC (Bet365, 11.1.23)*
*Available at DraftKings, Circa, Caesars, Bet365, PointsBet
It's time to plug my nose again and play what my model tells me to. The Jets' offense is currently my lowest-rated offense in the NFL, even factoring in all the backup quarterbacks going this week. Their offensive line, which was not good to begin with, is now completely banged up. And Zach Wilson cannot handle pressure. I say all this because my model factors all this in and still makes the line under 3 for the Chargers. Beating the betting markets is not about betting the good teams; it's more specifically about identifying elements that are not appropriately reflected in the market's inputs, including statistics. Here, the Jets' defense is better than people realize because they have dealt with injuries and faced a very difficult schedule of opposing offenses. They are elite at coverage and getting pressure with four. Justin Herbert can abuse a team that needs to blitz to get pressure because his reaction to quick pressure is excellent. But when the coverage is there, he does not have that next-level creativeness of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen to overcome it. He also does not have receivers who can win these matchups, and the Chargers' offense overall has simply looked worse without Mike Williams and Corey Linsley, just like last year. It will be tough sledding here in a hostile environment, where the Jets have beaten the Bills, taken the Chiefs to the wire, and beaten the Eagles.
We likely need something from Zach Wilson and the offense. But the Jets' offense has also faced a brutal schedule of defenses so far, including the Bills and Patriots before they suffered key injuries, and the Broncos after they got their key players back. Raw numbers on opponents don't do justice to the strength of their opponents, but even the raw numbers have been impressive. The Chargers are likely the softest defense they have faced all season. Finally, just like when I bet the Giants against the Commanders, the offensive line injuries are over-counted because the players being replaced are themselves virtually replacement-level (outside of Elijah Vera-Tucker). This means that the bad offensive line play has already been on display. Moving as a reaction to it can become an overreaction in this circumstance. I almost certainly will not watch this one live, but I have to put my money where I see edges and let the chips fall.
Risk: 2.2% on Bet365 to win 2%.
IND -2.5 (-110) @ CAR (DraftKings, 11.2.23)*
*Available at -105 at Bookmaker, -108 at DraftKings, but will grade -110 available at Circa, Caesars, BetMGM, Bet365, etc.
Square bet alert. Based on price movement, I would guess that the sharper bettors are on Carolina here. The line opened at -2.5, took a little bit of Colts money, then got beaten back down to 2.5 today. Laying under a field goal on the road with a perceived better team, I think I'm siding with the "square" side of this bet. My numbers suggest this should be Colts -3.5 because the gap between these teams is notable. When I work on my team profiles, I look at the metrics compared to what you would expect based on matchups, and the Colts with Gardner Minshew have faced such a tough slate that their raw metrics don't do justice to the quality of their offense. Specifically, in the four games Minshew has started, they have faced four of the top six defenses in terms of EPA/play (BAL is 2nd, JAX is 4th, CLE is 1st, and NO is 6th). Now he goes up against the 29th-ranked defense in Carolina, and should be able to rely heavily on a successful ground game to create easier opportunities in the passing game.
Meanwhile, there was a lot of talk about the Panthers' offense taking a step forward with new play-caller Thomas Brown last week out of the bye, but I saw nothing encouraging against Houston. I know that some bettors will prefer Carolina here because of Frank Reich's familiarity with the Colts' defense, and perhaps that is valid. But the bottom line is they are not nearly as talented. The receivers are not able to capitalize against a banged-up secondary the same way the Saints' receivers were able to, and the run game continues to struggle, currently boasting a bottom-7 success rate and bottom-4 EPA/rush. The Colts' injuries won't help, of course. But until the Panthers' offense puts together one decent offensive performance, I'm not going to hold bets back anticipating the one week it finally happens. That said, I don't like the market movement here so I'm downsizing the bet slightly to a 1.5% bet.
Risk: 1.65% on DraftKings to win 1.5%.
DAL +3 (-110) @ PHI (FanDuel, 11.2.23)*
*Actually available -105 at FanDuel but grading the widely available -110 at Circa, Caesars, BetMGM, Bet365, etc.
I have deliberated for a long time on this one. My numbers show value on Dallas here, making it much closer to a pick 'em. But my numbers routinely seem to undervalue this Eagles team and I wanted to make sure there isn't something important I am missing. I dug into the season so far and I am comfortable making this bet. The primary angle is that I think this Eagles' defensive line might be overrated. I know that is blasphemy. But let's look at their opponents. In Week 1, the Patriots were down two starting offensive linemen. In Week 2, the Vikings were down two starting offensive linemen and lost their backup tackle in-game. In Week 3, they faced Tampa Bay's weak offensive line. In Weeks 4 and 8, they struggled relatively to harass Sam Howell, who has constantly been sacked. In Week 5, they faced the Rams' weak offensive line. In Week 6, they faced the weak Jets' offensive line down it's best player. And in Week 7, the Dolphins also lost several linemen in-game (and came in with injuries). This Cowboys' offensive line, assuming Tyron Smith plays, will be, by far, the toughest test they have faced. Despite facing all those weak offensive lines, teams that have been able to get the ball out have moved the ball well and scored on this Eagles' secondary. I expect the Cowboys will do that here.
The Cowboys' defense also presents a unique challenge for the Eagles. None of the teams the Eagles have faced boast near the defensive front talent that the Cowboys do, outside of the Jets. The Jets beat the Eagles 20-14, and granted that involved some very high-leverage plays going the Jets' way. But it showed what can happen when this offense does get disrupted, which hasn't happened frequently in the last two seasons. I don't grade the Cowboys all that highly because so much of their performance has come with drastic point differentials. But I think this Eagles team has more weaknesses than people realize. Jalen Hurts' injury could also play a factor with Micah Parsons harassing him in the backfield. I wouldn't be surprised to see Hurts take more sacks than usual, and for them to struggle to consistently get to third-and-short. It's with a big sigh that I take this number, knowing how good the Eagles can look. But I think there is a strong chance this is a tight game, and I love taking the field goal in a game like that.
Risk: 2.2% on FanDuel to win 2%.
HOU -2.5 (-110) v. TB (DraftKings, 10.30.23)*
*Available at Circa, Caesars, BetMGM, PointsBet, and -112 at FanDuel
This bet simply results from my effectiveness ratings to date. To measure those, I watch and grade every snap, then analyze performance on both sides of the ball relative to opponent strength and accounting for injuries. I use weighting factors to identify trends as well, particularly where injuries may have led to differences in performance. The Bucs continually grade poorly in my ratings, whereas the Texans are close to average. Coming off the bye, I would have loved a better offensive performance from the Texans, but it felt more like an outlier good performance by the Panthers' defense (players making great plays) than anything wrong with the Texans' offense. They did lean too heavily on the run once the game got going, but I do not anticipate that being a problem moving forward with a smart offensive coordinator and head coach.
The matchup does not look particularly favorable for the Texans, because C.J. Stroud has not played as well against zone-heavy teams like the Bucs. But that also includes some games where Tank Dell missed, and the offensive line was banged up. We also see rookie quarterbacks get more comfortable as the season goes on when they play well out of the starting gate. That applies to Stroud. I anticipate continued improvement, although not linearly. It should be enough at home, where Stroud has played better, to overcome another mediocre performance by the Bucs' offense. The Texans can stop the run with just the front six or seven players, and the Bucs continue to run into big boxes on early downs. That will put a lot of pressure on Mayfield to convert third downs at a high rate against a difficult zone defense. Advantage, Houston.
Risk: 2.2% on DraftKings to win 2%.
MIN +5 (-110) @ ATL (DraftKings, 10.30.23)*
*Available at Circa, Bookmaker, PointsBet, and playable at +4.5 -110 everywhere else
This line is an overreaction to the Kirk Cousins injury, in my opinion. We often see teams that lose a good starting quarterback undervalued the next week, because the worst is assumed. When in reality, the expectations form a range of outcomes. That range of outcomes, in the first game at least, benefits from an offense that can build a game plan around the strengths and weaknesses of the backup without any benefit to the defense from being able to watch prior film on that game plan. The other players on the team can also step up, knowing they will need to play their best football in order to make up for any perceived weaknesses. It doesn't always happen, but it pushes the range of outcomes higher than the expected median.
In addition, the Vikings' defense has been playing extremely well under Brian Flores, terrorizing opposing quarterbacks with confusing and aggressive blitzes. Whether it's Desmond Ridder or Taylor Heinicke playing quarterback, they will be susceptible to key mistakes that will make covering a big spread a tough task. The Falcons' strength on offense is the offensive line, but a blitz-heavy team can neutralize that advantage because winning one-on-one matchups becomes less important. Drake London is also questionable with a groin injury, and the receiver room lacks depth. Throw in the Grady Jarrett injury to a defense that has played so far mostly injury-free, and there is some value here on the underdog Vikings. Even recognizing the uncertainty here, the Vikings would need to be the worst offense in the league to justify this spread based on my team ratings. I doubt that's the case.
Risk: 2.2% on DraftKings to win 2%.
Bet365 Promo Code
6-Point Teaser: MIA +8.5 v. KC, NO -1.5 v. CHI (-120) (Betonline, 10.31.23)*
*Playable anywhere with -120 6-point teasers
I really like both these legs individually, making a hugely valuable teaser opportunity here. The Dolphins' offense is not one that can be put out quietly. They can score in bunches and can play from behind. The two blowout losses to the Bills and Eagles involved some unique dynamics that I do not believe are particularly predictive. I also see value on the Dolphins here at +2.5, as I make the Chiefs only slight favorites. But I don't want to bet on the Dolphins at that number or on the moneyline because that would require Patrick Mahomes to lose outright, and that is a spot I tend to avoid. Getting the teaser number up above the 8 covers over all tight games, all Dolphins wins, and even some of the games where the Chiefs run away with it. They tend not to keep their foot on the gas.
I also like the Saints against the spread at -7.5. But those numbers have burned me (last week, the Bills' loss at -7.5 still stings) because teams with a lead do not need to extend it if they know they can win on defense. That could happen here in an ugly game. Tyson Bagent benefitted from a strong run game against the Raiders in a blowout win, then relied again on strong running against the Chargers, but it didn't work because they were playing from behind. This will be the Bears' toughest test from a running standpoint since Bagent took over, and they do not benefit from quarterback mobility in the same way they would with Justin Fields against this man-heavy defense and strong front. It's exceedingly unlikely that Bagent has an outlier game to the positive side, and the Saints are finally clicking on offense after dealing with injuries and suspensions. This should be a game where the Saints comfortably take care of business at home.
Risk: 2.4% on Betonline to win 2%.
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