Week 5 NFL Odds: Lookahead Lines Report
The only way to consistently put yourself in a position to gain positive expected value (+EV) while betting on NFL sides is to beat the closing line. Sportsbooks gradually increase the limits they let bettors get down as the week progresses, indicating that the book feels they've priced the game correctly. So unless you're waiting later in the week because you're betting five to six figures on a side, you're +EV increases if you can get down on a number before it's sharpened by the whales.
Each week of the season, I'll provide a first glance at the upcoming NFL slate through the lens of lookahead lines. This brief lookahead window offers a sneak peek at how teams are valued by bookmakers before the start of the week. It's also an opportunity to act before the games are posted and sharpened on Sunday evening- after the previous week's games are complete. These lines are a true indicator of how bookmakers value each team, without the influence of the recency bias that comes after watching eight hours of football earlier in the day. Depending on the bookmaker, and bettor for that matter, you may or may not be able to get the type of action down that you'd like, depending on your unit sizing. The key is understanding where the value is on the board in any given week, and that is easier to do once you know what the opening number is. The limits are lower in this lookahead window, but that's not a problem for about 95% of you reading.
When I take a position on a lookahead line, I believe the current number will beat the closing line. It's an effort to get ahead of the market movement to land the best of the number, which is ideal. Basically, I'm parlaying my handicap. In essence, if I'm right in my Week 4 evaluation of the team and market, I will have an advantage in predicting where the line movement will come first in Week 5.
For reference, I'll use the initial odds released by Westgate back in May to show you how the game opened. Then, I'll note each current Week 5 lookahead line at FanDuel, with the spread listed based on the home team:
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| GAME | CURRENT LINE (9/28) | PRESEASON LOOKAHEAD LINE |
|---|---|---|
| Bears @ Commanders | -5.5 | -1.5 |
| Jaguars vs. Bills (LONDON) | -4.5 | -3.5 |
| Giants @ Dolphins | -9.5 | -4.5 |
| Titans @ Colts | -1.5 | -1 |
| Texans @ Falcons | -3.5 | -3 |
| Panthers @ Lions | -7.5 | -5 |
| Saints @ Patriots | -2.5 | -3 |
| Ravens @ Steelers | +2.5 | +1 |
| Bengals @ Cardinals | +7.5 | +7.5 |
| Eagles @ Rams | +6 | +4.5 |
| Chiefs @ Vikings | +6 | +4.5 |
| Jets @ Broncos | -3 | +1 |
| Cowboys @ 49ers | -3.5 | -2 |
| Packers @ Raiders | +1.5 | -1.5 |
Week 5 Lookahead Lines Takeaways
- It matters less in Week 5, but I'm always on the hunt for scheduling and travel advantages. For the most part, these things are already baked into the number, but I believe there are instances each week that aren't accurately accounted for in the market.
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Bye Weeks: Browns, Chargers, Seahawks, Buccaneers
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Bears @ Commanders (-5.5)
This was a primetime matchup last season, and it was borderline unwatchable. Justin Fields took five sacks, threw for 190 yards, and was by FAR the best quarterback on the field. The bar is low for this rematch.
Jaguars vs. Bills (-4.5, London)
Big travel advantage for the Jaguars since they're already in London for Week 4's matchup against the Falcons. Even though this has jumped a point from the lookahead line, it feels like that travel advantage is baked into this number. If Buffalo slows Miami down in Week 4, this will likely climb out to -6.
Giants @ Dolphins (-9.5)
This line has moved five points since the start of the season, and it may not be enough. The Giants get a short week to prepare for the Dolphins after hosting Seattle on Monday night in Week 4, which is not ideal. I expect Wink Martindale and the Giants to bring blitz after blitz here, but Tua Tagovailoa's 2.18-second time to throw is the quickest in the league. I'm not sure 9.5 is enough.
Panthers @ Lions (-7.5)
The Lions have a slight rest advantage after playing on Thursday night in Week 4. The Panthers are the team that needs the rest, given the assortment of injuries that have ravaged the start of their season.
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Ravens @ Steelers (+2.5)
This feels like a sneaky schedule spot that the Steelers need to take advantage of. This is back-to-back divisional road games for the Ravens and the middle of three consecutive road games for Baltimore. It's not just three straight on the road, which is rare, but next week's game is in London. That's a brutal stretch and something that one of these next few teams will likely take advantage of. The Steelers have been so unimpressive that I'd want this to move to +3, but they'll have my attention if that happens.
Jets @ Broncos (-3)
I'm sure the Jets circled this one on the schedule after Sean Payton popped off about Nathaniel Hackett this offseason, but alas, they're neutered with Zach Wilson under center. What would've been a can't-miss viewing experience has turned into something I'll be making sure isn't on my multiview quad boxes on Sunday.
Cowboys @ 49ers (-3.5)
An electric Sunday night matchup with two of the NFC's best teams. The 49ers have moved out to 3.5 after Dallas couldn't take care of the Cardinals in Week 3. Both teams have had an easy start to their 2023 schedule, so this is definitely an early-season litmus test for both squads as we work into the heart of the season.
Packers @ Raiders (+1.5)
The Packers are on the road here but get an extended mini-bye this week, playing on Monday night after Week 4's Thursday night home game against the Lions. That explains the market movement toward Green Bay, but this could swing back if the Packers stumble at home against Detroit.
