Week 2 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen
It feels incredible to be back. Not just the daily grind but the highs and lows of betting on the NFL. Sharp Clarke both absolutely crushed this week with more than 15 units on sides and totals. I was just a smidge positive, while Noonan won roughly a unit. For those new to this column, I usually recap the previous week with any close wins or bad beats on official plays prior to breaking down my plays for the following week.
Week 1 Recap: Thursday Night went fairly well, with both unders cashing but my lone over on Jahmyr Gibbs falling short. We bet the over on his receiving yards at 25.5. By game time, it closed above 30. At 4for4, we like to joke that is called “LCLV” or “losing closing line value.” It’s when you make a bet that beats the closing price by a significant margin, but still wind up losing. It never feels good, but beating the market at least gives us something to hang our hats on in those situations. It’s not as big of a deal in the prop world in most scenarios since steam moves props, but in this situation, we know multiple other groups were on this as well, and it moved a ton.
I have to get this off my chest. I simply could not have been more wrong about Anthony Richardson and Shane Steichen. I thought the Colts were going to go run-heavy and pass the ball occasionally, pretty similar to the Falcons and Bears of last year. Shane Steichen gave me and many other Richardson doubters a massive middle finger when he was masterfully scheming easy throws for Richardson and squeezing as many edges as possible despite limited wideout and offensive line play. It is almost reminiscent of what we saw from Brian Daboll and Daniel Jones last year. Despite my confidence in Anthony Richardson’s passing under, losing it didn’t even feel that bad because it was so impressive compared to my expectations. Considering I double-dipped on the Colts' passing game and lost both, it felt good to still end up in the black heading into Week 2.
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Week 2 NFL Player Prop Bets
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Josh Downs under 31.5 receiving yards (-115 Bet365)
Widely available at CZRS, BR has 32.5, and play to FD at 29.5.
Josh Downs had just a 3.4-yard ADOT (average depth of target) last week and now draws a surprisingly tough matchup against Texans slot CB Tavierre Thomas who ranked first out of all cornerbacks in PFF's Week 1 grades. I'm normally not a massive WR/CB guy but Downs lined up in the slot on 47/57 plays and Thomas was exclusively a slot corner too. With a low depth of target and tough matchup, I like this under a good bit. We have 26.8 yards projected here.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Gabe Davis over 41.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
In a predictably quiet game against the Jets stingy outside corners, Gabe Davis still played on 94% of the snaps. and 32 receiving yards. Now he gets a much softer draw against the Raiders who played zone on 84% of their snaps. Gabe was much better against zone defenses last year, Davis averaging a 5% higher target share (18.2%) and doubling his yards per route run (1.81) against zone coverage. Even if they play more man, he will get Jakorian Bennet or Marcus Peters, neither of whom are very good (69th and 70th of 83 qualifying corners via PFF). Play to 45.
Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit
Nick Chubb over 75.5 rushing yards (-115 DK)
Nick Chubb saw almost all of the work last week before the game was out of hand whereas Jerome Ford saw 8 carries in the fourth quarter. Chubb ripped a Bengals run D for over 100 yards last week that we expected to be strong with DJ Reader last week and now draws a ripe matchup against the Steelers who were just rinsed by the 49ers for 152 yards on 22 carries by CMC and now will be without Cam Hayward on the DL. From the start of last season, Nick Chubb has 75 rushing yards or more in 14-of-18 games including 77 and 113 against PIT last year. This number should be in the mid-80' and we have 92 yards projected.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Christian McCaffrey over 3.5 receptions (-120 DK, MGM, -121 CZRS, -130 FD)
Over in 9-of-13 games with the Niners including playoffs if you exclude his first game with the team on limited snaps plus the Week 18 game he was benched at halftime. This one may move quick but 4+ outs here. We have 5.1 receptions projected and other sources are at 4.7-5.
Risk 1.20 units to win 1 unit
Justin Herbert over 276.5 passing yards (-115 FanDuel)
I already liked the over here but now the Titans have announced starting S Amani Hooker and CB Kristian Fulton are out. The Titans were already a mess on the back end allowing over 9 yards per attempt to Derek Carr and more than 300 passing yards in Week 1.
The Chargers went extremely run-heavy against Miami in Week 1 but I think that was by design given what Miami's defense was allowing. It may be some faith in rational coaching but we have seen Kellen Moore in the past scheme his offense toward opponent's weaknesses (Think Dallas vs TB when TB had an elite run D and Dak threw it 58 times). The Titans front 7 is one of the best in the league. The current shape of their secondary puts them as one of the worst in the league.
I know this normally isn't my style but this is truly an eruption spot if Kellen Moore does what I think he will AND the Chargers OL holds up (it should). You can play alt overs as well and I mixed in Herbert to lead the league in passing on Sunday at 8/1.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Courtland Sutton under 51.5 receiving yards (-115 MGM)
Play to 45. A bit confused by this line with Jerry Jeudy practicing in full yesterday. Sutton was only targeted on 15.6% of his routes last week against a porous Raiders secondary and had just 32 receiving yards. Marvin Mims also figures to continue to take strides forward and now they get an above average Washington defense
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Cam Akers under 31.5 (-110 DK, -115 MGM, -119 CZRS, -118 PB)
Akers turned 22 carries into just 29 yards last week. He started the game and led the team in carries but this was very misleading. He was out-snapped by Kyren Williams 26-4 in the first half and 12 of Akers' 22 carries came in the fourth quarter. He saw just 4 carries in the first half with the Rams losing 6-13 at half. With the Rams dominating the second half, they resorted to the running game with 18 second-half carries for Akers. 18! That almost certainly won't be the case here against a stiff San Francisco defense and electric offense that should push this Rams offense. If the Niners are winning like sportsbooks/bettors anticipate (7.5-point favorites), Akers may not see much work, and if he does it'll be tough to be efficient. The 49ers allowed just 3.3 yards per carry to opposing running backs last season and the Rams OL did not show anything against SEA to make us think they will be efficient running the ball here.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Fanduel Sportsbook Bonus
Kenny Pickett under 202.5 passing yards (-115 at Bet365)
Play to 195 and is also available at every other shop. The preseason hype didn't translate to Week 1 as it took insane garbage time for him to get over 200 passing yards. He had 9 total passing yards before a 2 minute drill at the end of the first half where the Steelers were already losing 20-0.
This game projects to be a bit closer. The Steelers also lost their clear No. 1 wide receiver in Diontae Johnson, which means it will be a combination of George Pickens, Allen Robinson, and Calvin Austin against a Browns defense that looked absolutely elite last week. Maybe it was Burrow recovering, or the rain, but I was impressed with the Browns' defense regardless and holding Burrow to 82 yards in any circumstances is impressive.
On the other side, I fully expect the Browns to be able to dominate TOP with their running game against a Steelers front missing Cam Heyward.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 units
Zach Wilson under 178.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings, 175.5 -115 at Bet365)
The number is low. I get it. Yet he has gone under this number in more than half of his career games played. We also now have Zach Wilson paired with arguably the worst OC in the league in Nathaniel Hackett against a Cowboys defense that we projected to be elite yet found a way to exceed expectations in Week 1. On top of this, Zach Wilson was getting minimal reps with the starters all offseason and they now have to scramble to prepare for one of the best defenses in the NFL.
I anticipate the Jets going extremely run-heavy here with Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook and even if they fall behind, they know they can't just let Wilson sit back and chuck it because he is so turnover-prone. On top of a stout Cowboys defense, I expect this game to be a snooze fest. The Jets' defense is awesome and should keep the game close enough so that there isn't immense negative game script. Even if there is, I could see them still not letting Wilson sling it.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Dallas Goedert over 46.5 receiving yards (-115 FanDuel)
Goedert is coming off a dud, but this is a great buying opportunity. The Eagles passing game struggled last week but should be much more successful against a Vikings defense that let Baker Mayfield look competent last week. Mayfield also targeted the tight end position on 6 of his 34 attempts despite it being Cade Otton and Ko Keft, two players who are obviously not even in the same stratosphere as Goedert.
Goedert cleared 44.5 receiving yards in 11-of-15 games last season and now draws a great matchup against the Vikings. They played the highest rate of zone coverage (87%) in Week 1 and blitzed at the highest rate (47%). In those situations last year (zone and blitz), Dallas Goedert had a 21% target share and averaged more than 10 yards per target.
On top of this, you have OC Brian Johnson mentioning they need to get Goedert more involved after last week, so a bit of a squeaky wheel narrative as icing on the cake. If you go back and watch the game last week, there were gaping holes in the seams of the Vikings' defense that Goedert should be able to pick apart.
I know a couple of people got on this early at open, but as I have mentioned before, I do not plan on blasting solo-out, new lines and still think there is plenty of value at the current number. I would play this up to the 46.5 at FD. This was originally released at 44.5 receiving yards in our subscriber discord.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit at FanDuel
Fanduel Sportsbook Bonus
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