2023 Breakout Receiver Model: Week 17

Dec 27, 2023
2023 Breakout Receiver Model: Week 17

The 4for4 breakout receiver model keeps up its momentum for Week 17, still adeptly handling the unique challenges of this NFL season. In these last regular season weeks, our focus remains on identifying players with outstanding opportunity value and those ‘overperformers’ who are exceeding opportunity-based expectations. With many evolving player roles and offensive strategies shifting with new quarterbacks under center, let's delve into the Week 17 model insights and seek out as many hidden treasures as we can for the DFS main slate and your fantasy football championships.

About the Breakout Receiver Model

The 4for4 data science team, in conjunction with our award-winning projections expert John Paulsen, created the current iteration receiver "buy-low" model in order to use machine learning to identify under-performing wide receivers and tight ends on the verge of a breakout performance. The model utilizes historical data and recent player performance to help determine players who have received opportunity that is typically more valuable than recent production would indicate. This particular model's features include air yards and routes-run data as a means of determining opportunity. It also utilizes a proprietary efficiency metric that looks back at the past 10 weeks of individual player performance, all to better help predict the likelihood of a bounce-back in a player's future production. The model most heavily weights the last three weeks of data.

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