Welcome to the special Christmas Day edition of the showdown snapshot, featuring three exciting island games in the NFL. The first contest is an AFC West showdown between the much-improved Raiders and the division-leading Chiefs, who haven’t been the typical offensive juggernaut we’re used to but remain in the driver’s seat in a hotly contested AFC playoff race. This game is also the annual Nickelodeon game (which turned Russell Wilson into a meme last year), so if you’re looking to add some spice—and maybe some slime—to this matchup, the NFL’s got you covered there as well. Let’s dig into the top plays and key strategies for this intriguing single-game slate.
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Game Environment
Raiders (16.5) @ Chiefs (26.5); Over/Under 43
This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.
Quarterback Analysis
While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.
Core Plays and Auxiliary Options
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