SharpClarke's Week 11 NFL Bets

After another crazy week of the NFL, capped by absolute madness on Monday Night Football, it's immediately time to turn to Week 11. In a season that has been full of tight spreads and toss-up games, this week shows a lot of clear favorites. But are they all justified? And where can we put ourselves in the position to capitalize on variance? This article provides my analysis for my weekly bets as I document them in the 4for4 Discord. For access, you'll need a 4for4 Betting Subscription. Good luck if you follow along!

NFL Week 11 Bets

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GB +3.5 (-110) v. LAC (FanDuel, 11.12.23)*

*Also available at Bookmaker, DraftKings, Betonline, etc.

As always, my spread bets are based on my model, and my model suggests this spread should be LAC by less than a field goal, with an above-average range of outcomes that includes the Chargers winning by exactly 3. Historically, my bets have performed very well when I first see value on a team that I have consistently bet against, or bet against a team that I have consistently backed. This typically happens when an overrated team is being correctly downgraded by the market while simultaneously showing something on the field that leads me to believe they are improving. That's the case here with the Packers. I was quite impressed with Jordan Love, in particular, heading into hostile Steelers territory and showing poise and, more importantly, consistency downfield. The offensive line also held up very nicely against a tough front and now goes against a Chargers' defense that is struggling to stop all but the worst NFL offenses. I doubt the Packers have the same level of success that the Lions had last week, but with a quarterback who is very susceptible to pressure and benefits from a strong ground game, the projected win on the offensive line matters a lot. I also have my doubts about this Chargers team being able to sustain offense, especially if Keenan Allen is hurt. I'll happily take the hook.

Risk: 2.2% on FanDuel to win 2%.

NYG @ WAS Over 37 (-110) (DraftKings, 11.12.23)*

*DraftKings has Over 36.5 -110, which Is preferable. FanDuel has 36.5 -115, also a good bet. But I'll grade Over 37, which is widely available.

Another week, another Commanders' over for me. Granted, the Giants part of this game is bringing the total down, but I still think the market is undervaluing the scoring potential in Commanders games, both on offense and defense. It's been three weeks now with Washington's offensive shift, and the trend is real. We see this sometimes, especially with new coordinators and young quarterbacks, where a team makes a change and recent outcomes need to be weighed more heavily than is typical. I believe that applies here. The Giants' defense seems to have given up (and why not) in the last couple of weeks, and Kayvon Thibodeaux got hurt against Dallas. They also traded away Leonard Williams a few weeks back, and that has hurt them. Dexter Lawrence is basically on his own at this point, especially if Thibodeaux can't go. The Giants love to blitz, but Howell has been great at getting the ball out to his running backs in space, which is a great way to counter the blitz. And yes, the Giants' offense is a complete mess. But it's still an NFL unit, and the Commanders have no teeth on defense. Hopefully, Washington can get to 27-30 by itself, and we don't need much from New York, but if the Giants show any life on offense at all, it's hard to see this game staying under.

Risk: 1.65% on DraftKings to win 1.5%.

JAX -6.5 (-110) v. TEN (Bet365, 11.13.23)

The Jaguars just got destroyed by the 49ers, but I can forgive them for that. The 49ers, when fully healthy, are the best team in the NFL. They smothered everything in the short game and put pressure on Lawrence whenever the Jaguars tried to let plays develop. On top of that, when they did get things going, they got untimely turnovers that skewed the result. The Titans are not a very good team, and the initial boost we saw from Will Levis in game one is slowly fading away. This happens frequently, where a quarterback plays his best football in his first game, and then when defenses get film on the player, things get tougher. I like Levis, and I think he is capable. But the offensive line is not very good, and the Titans' offense needs more from the run game to take pressure off him. The Jaguars' defensive front has played very well this season, especially against the run. They should continue to make things difficult for Levis. While I do not typically factor in situational spots or motivational factors (because I think they can be misleading in the aggregate), I do believe that good teams typically respond well after an embarrassing loss. The Jaguars should "bounce back" here, and hopefully, that means covering a big number.

Risk: 2.2% on Bet365 to win 2%.

ARI @ HOU Under 49 (-110) (Bet365, 11.13.23)*

*Also available at Caesars, BetMGM, Circa, Beonline, etc.

This one is not overly complicated. Scoring in the NFL is down this season, and this total is too high, outside of a projected shootout between two elite offenses. Even the Chiefs-Eagles matchup on Monday night has a projected total of 45.5 to 46.5 right now. Kyler Murray returned and looked a lot like his old self. But that also meant offensive penalties, mistakes, and low-probability throws downfield on third down. The Texans' defense should hold up, and, if nothing else, prevent big plays with its liberal use of zone and patient, low blitz rate. I also think the Cardinals' defense continues to be underrated after another strong performance against Atlanta. They have now played four straight games where the opposing defense failed to live up to expectations. Maybe having Budda Baker back from the IR helps, and maybe this team is not ready to quit. I like C.J. Stroud a lot, but I am not expecting him to dominate this defense and score touchdowns at will.

Risk: 1.1% on Bet365 to win 1%.

CHI +10.5 @ DET (FanDuel, 11.13.23)*

*Circa has +11, but +10.5 is available at FanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars, BetMGM, and Betonline.

Once again, this ultimately reflects my model's projection that the spread should be under 10. When getting through a relatively key number, I typically see value and will bet it. My numbers rate the Bears' offense fairly similar with either Tyson Bagent or Justin Fields, so this bet does not rely on a specific quarterback decision. Fields has more play-to-play upside, but Bagent runs the offense more smoothly. Regardless, the offensive line has been playing much better football, and the run game is working. They should be able to sustain drives, and with such a big spread, that might be enough. At least, unless the Lions' offense just runs all over the Bears on every drive. That's certainly possible, especially after another masterclass by Ben Johnson against the Chargers. But I wouldn't count on it. This Bears' defense has shown signs of life recently, especially after acquiring Montez Sweat. Their secondary was hurt early in the year, and now that they are healthy, they have been causing issues for opposing quarterbacks. With such a big spread, it's possible the Lions' offense is not as aggressive and creative, as they have to be thinking about the playoffs at this point. If they don't bring their absolute best, this number is too big. If they pull out the trick plays and convert just about every fourth down once again, then it will be on the Bears' offense to get within the number. That's not impossible, especially with a potential backdoor.

Risk: 2.2% on FanDuel to win 2%.

KC ML (-140) v. PHI (FanDuel, 11.15.23)*

*FanDuel actually has -136 but I'll grade -140 available at Circa, playable to -145

I haven't enjoyed the results of betting against the Eagles this season, but I have to trust my process here. But given that this is another prime-time game with a team that possibly defies my metrics, I'm keeping it to a slightly smaller play. Both offenses have been remarkably consistent (outside of the weird Chiefs game in Denver when Patrick Mahomes was recovering from the flu, let's give him a pass). But the difference is that the Chiefs' defense is playing much better than the Eagles' defense. Not only have they been better by just about any metric, but they have faced the Dolphins, Chargers, Vikings, Lions and Jaguars. The Eagles' defense has had an easier road overall, facing the Dolphins and Vikings with banged-up offensive lines and the Cowboys and Rams as the most competent offenses outside of that. The Eagles have also benefitted from playing their biggest games (against Miami and Dallas) at home in a very advantageous home stadium and now must go into Arrowhead on Monday night. Both teams have had an extra week to prepare for this Super Bowl rematch, but that gives an edge to Andy Reid, who is excellent with extra time to prepare. I like the Chiefs against the spread, but you can never count the Eagles out. With both teams (especially the Eagles) analytically driven, we could see a scoreline that falls off the standard and I feel more comfortable backing Mahomes to win outright here over covering a short spread. This should be a fantastic game, and in those spots, give me the greatest quarterback to every play the sport.

Risk: 1.4% on FanDuel to win 1%.

TB @ SF Over 41.5 (-110) (DraftKings, 11.15.23)*

*Available at -108 on DraftKings, Over 41 -116 at Bookmaker, Over 41 -117 at Betonline, 41.5 -110 available at Bet365, FanDuel, Caesars, BetMGM

The 49ers have been an absolute truck on offense when healthy this season, scoring 30+ points in every game outside of the three they played without Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams (with Brock Purdy concussed for a portion of those games). They are back and healthy now, fresh off a dominant performance against a good Jaguars' defense and ready to take advantage of a below-average Bucs' defense at home. I expect Kyle Shanahan to help Purdy capitalize against the Bucs' blitz, and to exploit the holes in the zone downfield. The 49ers are also excellent in the red zone. The Bucs' offense has also played well for two weeks in a row now, and Baker Mayfield could hit some deep shots to Mike Evans against the 49ers' only weakness on defense (the secondary). But even if that doesn't happen, the 49ers should extend their lead and bring garbage time points onto the table. Either way, this total is too low for the projected number of explosive plays in this game, and I expect either game script to lead to the total going over. I think the 49ers big win is more likely, but not necessary here.

Risk: 1.1% on DraftKings to win 1%.

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