Week 11 NFL Odds: Lookahead Lines Report

The only way to consistently put yourself in a position to gain positive expected value (+EV) while betting on NFL sides is to beat the closing line. Sportsbooks gradually increase the limits they let bettors get down as the week progresses, indicating that the book feels they've priced the game correctly. So unless you're waiting later in the week because you're betting five to six figures on a side, you're +EV increases if you can get down on a number before it's sharpened by the whales.

Each week of the season, I'll provide a first glance at the upcoming NFL slate through the lens of lookahead lines. This brief lookahead window offers a sneak peek at how teams are valued by bookmakers before the start of the week. It's also an opportunity to act before the games are posted and sharpened on Sunday evening- after the previous week's games are complete. These lines are a true indicator of how bookmakers value each team, without the influence of the recency bias that comes after watching eight hours of football earlier in the day. Depending on the bookmaker, and bettor for that matter, you may or may not be able to get the type of action down that you'd like, depending on your unit sizing. The key is understanding where the value is on the board in any given week, and that is easier to do once you know what the opening number is. The limits are lower in this lookahead window, but that's not a problem for about 95% of you reading.

When I take a position on a lookahead line, I believe the current number will beat the closing line. It's an effort to get ahead of the market movement to land the best of the number, which is ideal. Basically, I'm parlaying my handicap. In essence, if I'm right in my Week 10 evaluation of the team and market, I will have an advantage in predicting where the line movement will come first in Week 11.

For reference, I'll use the initial odds released by Westgate back in May to show you how the game opened. Then, I'll note each current Week 11 lookahead line at FanDuel, with the spread listed based on the home team:

Get a full year of our subscription for as low as $10, or 2 months for $5! Find out how.

Week 11 Lookahead Lines Takeaways

[subscribe_betting]

• I'm always on the hunt for scheduling and travel advantages. For the most part, these things are already baked into the number, but I believe there are instances each week that aren't accurately accounted for in the market.
• Bye Weeks: Patriots, Colts, Saints, and Falcons

Bengals @ Ravens (-2.5)

With every AFC North club currently two games above .500 and positioned to make the playoffs if the season ended today, these head-to-head matchups are critical. This one is especially intriguing because I'm not sure I believe in the long-term 2023 prospects of the Browns or Steelers, but there's no doubt these are two of the AFC's best teams. The added layer of intrigue is the current form for both teams, who enter Week 10 playing their best football of the season. There are some -2.5 (-120) in the market, so if you like the Ravens in this spot, it's likely wise to get it now before a move to -3.

Steelers @ Browns (-5.5)

Well, look what we have here. The other two AFC North clubs are battling this week as well.

I like the Steelers (-3) in their Week 10 matchup against the Packers, and I think the Browns struggle to score enough to knock off the Ravens. The results of those games, even if I'm wrong, will impact this game's line and price. When we see games in this 4.5-5.5 range, it tells me that the market is willing to move a bit toward key numbers on either side. In my opinion, if you like the Steelers in this matchup, I'd grab the +5.5 now.

Raiders @ Dolphins (-10)

I don't love to make plays on double-digit favorites in an NFL game, but getting the Dolphins at home off the bye against an Aidan O'Connell-led Raiders club has my attention. The bye came at a good time for Miami, who should be as healthy as ever and have absolutely annihilated bad football teams this season, and this should be no different.

Jets @ Bills (-7)

We'll hear a lot about the Bills and Josh Allen's struggles against the Jets leading up to this one. Often, narratives take on a life of their own and don't matter, but there's actual data to back up this sentiment. Josh Allen has a passer rating of 79.0 with 2,277 yards, nine touchdowns, and ten interceptions in 10 games versus the Jets in his career. He hasn't topped 240 yards in any of the past four meetings and has a 4-to-5 touchdown-to-interception rate in those games. That makes things tough, considering this current version of the Bills, with a decimated defense, requires a superhero effort and no turnovers from Josh Allen.

Seahawks @ Rams (+2.5)

If the Seahawks are to be taken seriously, they need to go into Los Angeles and beat the Rams by margin. We don't know who'll be starting at quarterback for the Rams in this matchup, and I'd feel a lot better about backing Seattle if I knew Matthew Stafford was out for sure, but I think his thumb injury was a multiple week issue, which is why the Rams made a move for Carson Wentz. The Rams are on a bye in Week 10, but I'll be watching the news here closely.

Eagles @ Chiefs (-2.5)

Week 11 gives us bookend primetime bangers, and this Super Bowl rematch and possible preview should be compelling. Going against Andy Reid coming off the bye is probably dumb, but I like the Eagles getting points in this spot. Their offense has been excellent by any metric and would look even better without a handful of red zone turnovers in the past few weeks. The Chiefs' defense has been excellent, but the Eagles can win in so many ways, and while I think the loss of Dallas Goedert matters, I think the Week 10 bye week (for both teams) helps Philadelphia get situated moving forward.