Week 10 Sunday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Nov 11, 2023

Sunday Night Single-Game DFS: Jets at Raiders

Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the showdown breakdown for the Week 10 Sunday Night Football showdown, where the New York Jets take on the Las Vegas Raiders in a pivotal AFC matchup. Both teams are hanging on to playoff hopes, with the Jets at 4-4 in the tough AFC East and the Raiders at 4-5 after a statement win under new coach Antonio Pierce. This game, with several moving parts and unique team conditions, promises to be a crucial junction for both teams in their season narratives. Let’s dig into this game from a DFS strategy perspective.

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Game Environment

_{^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}}

Jets (+0, 18.25) @ Raiders (+0, 18.25 ); Over/Under 36.5

The Jets and Raiders enter this game with no clear favorite, with both teams having an implied total of 18.25 in a game with a weekend-low 36.5. This low-scoring projection is an indicator of not just the uncertainty related to both offenses, but of the defensive prowess on display, particularly from the Jets, who boast one of the stingiest defenses in the league. With that, there could be some fluctuation in play style. The Raiders have been almost exactly league-average in pace and passing rate this season. And they face arguably their toughest challenge all season against the Jets’ elite pass defense. The Raiders have been struggling to find the end zone as a squad, with a meager 1.7 offensive touchdowns per game, a trend they hope to reverse against a Jets team that has its own offensive woes, marked by a paltry 0.7 offensive touchdowns per game, worst in the NFL.

On the other side, the Jets, despite a more aggressive passing approach in neutral game scripts, have struggled to sustain drives and create scoring situations. This is evidenced by their historically low touchdown rate mentioned above. Their slow pace of play and low efficiency on deep passes or in the red zone have rendered their offense one of the least effective in the last half-decade. With injuries plaguing their offensive line, they face a challenging task against a Raiders team that, while not dominant, has shown flashes of defensive competence, especially on the defensive line led by Maxx Crosby. This setting creates a game environment where defensive prowess and opportunistic plays could be the difference-makers, leading to a battle of attrition rather, an dwindling the shootout potential to near-zero.

Quarterback Analysis

_{^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}}

Zach Wilson is a sad, sorry excuse for a quarterback who should not have a second-string job in the NFL. He’s outside the top 20 in completion percentage vs. expectation, and that’s better than he can say in most efficiency categories. He’s outside the top 30 in true drive success rate and in EPA per game. He’s 25th in QBR, 30th in adjusted yards per attempt, and 32nd in fantasy points per game. His rate of on-target pass rate is barely inside the top 35 qualified passers this season. No team—not even a squad with as elite of a defense as this Jets team—has any iota of a chance of success with Wilson as their quarterback.

In his second start in Week 9, Aidan O’Connell looked much more comfortable in the pocket but didn’t need to do a ton as the Giants had absolutely no offense to speak of whatsoever. Luckily for O’Connell, he’ll likely be in a similar position again Sunday night, but he’ll be facing arguably the toughest secondary in the league, as the Jets’ defense ranks fourth in pass defense