NBA Player Prop Bets: Tatum Sets Up the Cs

It's day two of the playoffs and we have a new set of games ones to look at. With both 1-8 matchups and the series with the second-largest price in play today (Bulls at Bucks), the only difference to the prep from yesterday is having to keep some blowout potential in mind for these games. The top seeds have all had a week off, so there could be some extended time versus a traditional blowout situation but it should be factored in.

For additional help with your prep, make sure to check out 4fo4’s Player Prop Tool, Prop Explorer, and get involved in the Discord chat. Let’s make it a profitable Sunday.

*Betting lines accurate at time of publication.

FanDuel Player Prop Bets (April 17, 2022)

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Brook Lopez Over 12.5 Points (-108)

When Brook Lopez made his season debut in mid-March, most of the thought process went to how he would help stabilize the Bucks' defense, which had become less consistent without him. What slipped through the cracks is the additional offensive element he has brought in specific matchups—matchups like the struggling Bulls.

Lopez brings another physical inside presence, that can post up or rim run, outside of Giannis Antetokounmpo. Those elements have proven extremely effective in his couple of contests against the Bulls. In the two contests against Chicago, Lopez has averaged 19 points against Nikola Vucevic, who has become exposed when having to defend in space. When Lopez comes in with second unit players, Tristan Thompson has issues with the sheer size of Lopez in the post and has not slowed him down much either.

Since returning to the lineup, Lopez has gone over this prop in seven of the 10 games where he gets 20+ minutes, and he has done it in his last four. When Lopez gets at least 25 minutes this season, he is averaging 19.3 points. Considering Chicago’s lack of lineup that would require Milwaukee to pivot to more switching, it is fair to expect Lopez to hit the 25-minute threshold in game one, bringing plenty of value to this prop.

Risk: 1.08 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit. (Playable to -120)

Caesars Player Prop Bets (April 17, 2022)

Jayson Tatum Over 4.5 Assists (+120)

Marcus Smart complaining publicly about Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown not passing the ball enough feels like an eternity ago. Maybe the crazy run the Celtics have gone on since we hit 2022 had something to do with it or maybe it is how well the ball has been moving for Boston. That ball movement, along with a great defense leading to easy offense, has given Boston a top-five offense in 2022, and the best offense since the All-Star break.

Tatum being more willing to not iso until he has to has been a big part of the offensive success the Celtics have been having, averaging 5.1 assists since the break. Tatum is consistently going to be on the edge of 40 minutes in competitive playoff games. He has averaged 5.6 assists on 11.8 potential assists since the All-Star break when playing 35+ minutes. In those 10 games with 35+ minutes, Tatum went over this prop in seven of them.

Even looking back at the last playoff run, Tatum went over this number in eight of 11 games, including both games where he played fewer than 40 minutes. Brooklyn lacks the defensive options to be able to combat the weapons Boston has, so there should be spots to attack in switches or to run plays to get others open. The extra volume with playing time and the offensive role the Celtics are on bring plenty of value to this prop.

Risk: 1 unit on Caesars to win 1.2 units. (Playable to -105)

BetMGM Player Prop Bets (April 17, 2022)

Devin Booker Over 27.5 Points (-105)

There are times it is satisfying to have a great stat on a player that most are not thinking of for a certain prop and be able to be the one to drop the bomb on it. Then there are other times to not overthink and just accept the value and a good chance to make some money, Devin Booker presents one of those opportunities today.

The return of Chris Paul allowed Devin Booker to return completely to his shooting guard position and focus his efforts on scoring, and he has done that very well. In the six games Booker and Paul have played together since Paul’s return, Booker is averaging 35.3 points. In those six games, five were against playoff teams as well, so the sample gains some more validity. Booker’s shot attempts jumped from 20.8 before Paul got hurt to 24.0 since he returned.

If it was not clear after the last playoff run, Booker has emerged as the go-to guy for Phoenix and being treated as such down the stretch before the playoffs is likely no coincidence. The matchup however is not an easy one, which makes the volume even more important. Herb Jones of the Pelicans is one of the best rookie on-ball defenders the NBA has seen in a while and he helped put himself on the map early in the year by holding Booker to 18 points. In the three subsequent matchups, Booker has averaged 30, so after getting some tape on Jones, and likely just shooting better, Booker has been very effective.

Outside of Jones, New Orleans does not have any great defensive options in the backcourt, so if Jones gets in foul trouble, it will be an all-out feast for Booker.

Risk: 1.05 units on BetMGM to win 1 unit. (Playable to -120)

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