NBA Best Bet: Going Low in Los Angeles

The NBA season comes for us all. Last night we saw it come for Giannis Antetokounmpo's knee after having already taken Trae Young’s ankle. It already took Kawhi Leonard from us and although the Suns have avoided injury as much as any team, there is still time left. I know that’s pretty grim, but it is worth noting at this point. It’s truly remarkable. I’m not saying I’m handicapping with the assumption that someone will get hurt, but I am avoiding championship futures when I normally like to grab a price on a team I like before the conference finals end. Speaking of last night, I do think the Bucks get right in the confines of their home court. They shot 39% from the field and 20% from the three-point line while getting caught by surprise, it seemed, by Trae Young not playing. Mike Budenholzer is not known for his in-game adjustments and we saw that in Game 4. Now, let’s get into tonight’s Western Conference finals matchup.

Projections for June 30, 2021

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Best NBA Bet of the Day (June 30, 2021)

Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Clippers Game Total Under 215 Points

Game 6 is here, which is pretty surprising since a Phoenix Suns team that was 27-9 at home this season and closed as 6.5-point favorites lost in Game 5. I guess practicing for the trophy ceremony wasn’t the best use of time. Perhaps planning to slow down Marcus Morris in the post would have been a good idea. At the very least, it must have been a distraction because the Suns started slow and never caught up with a Clippers team that played a fantastic first half of basketball. Los Angeles shot almost 55% from the field for the game, and that number was greater than 60% in the first two quarters. The Clippers also won the turnover battle by four and recorded five more offensive rebounds than Phoenix. Those extra nine possessions can be a huge advantage. Winning at least one of those areas is key for a Suns team that would love to avoid a Game 7.

Tonight’s game is a pick'em after opening Clippers -1. That’s not an important move, but keep an eye on the line to see if Phoenix continues to get betting support throughout the day. You can see above that Suns closed -1.5 in Game 3 and +0.5 in Game 4, which puts the Game 6 line right in the middle. For the series, the Clippers have actually outscored the Suns by three points. Of course, their 14-point victory in the last game drives a lot of that discrepancy, but the Suns have yet to win a game convincingly this series. Their largest margin of victory was six points in Game 1. I have the spread as Clippers -1, which is close enough to the line for me to stay away from the spread. I think Phoenix is the better team, but blowing a chance to close the series out at home in Game 5 can creep into players’ minds creating doubt and we all know of Chris Paul's past failures.

Where I see value in this game is the total. The playoffs, in general, present us with a lot of value in going under the number. You may remember the last three minutes of Game 5 being slow and ugly—because it was. The score was 114-100 with 3:05 on the clock in the fourth quarter. The Clippers took the air out of the ball, dribbling and running out the clock on offense while allowing players to set up on defense even as they missed long jumpers. Phoenix did push the ball initially, but never really tried to force shots in shorter time frames like most teams down 14 in a playoff game. The Suns, especially Chris Paul, want to play at a slower, more controlled pace. If they can keep the Clippers from shooting 60% in the first half again, they will be able to keep the game slow. I’m also expecting some adjustments on defense to slow down Marcus Morris and, therefore, the Clippers' half-court offense. A lot of things are pointing to a low score including my projections, which have it at 211.

Here are a few other thoughts if you wanted to consider other wagers or would like to bet the game live:

• If you think the Clippers win this game and are planning to bet them tonight, be sure you place a small wager on them to win this series. They are +410 at FanDuel and this number will move to less than 2-to-1 odds if they win tonight, giving you a lot of equity in Game 7.
• If you think the Suns win this game and are planning to bet them tonight, you might also want to consider a bet on them at -155 to win the title. Even if Giannis Antetokounmpo is healthy, they’ll be a bigger favorite over Milwaukee if they make the finals and will be a much bigger favorite over Atlanta. That gives you less equity than the previous suggestion, but it’s a good wager if you’re of the opinion that the Suns win tonight and win the title.
• If you are betting live look to accrue positions on the under in the first half if the game starts quickly. I know we already bet the pre-game under, but as I mentioned, the fourth quarter of this game should be very low scoring unless someone gets out to an unlikely 25+ point lead. In Game 5, the live total got to be as high as 228.5 in the first half and as low as 214.5 in the second half. That would have been a tasty middle for anyone who was quick enough to get both numbers, but more importantly, you had a lot of chances to bet under 228.5, 227.5 and 226.5, all the way down to 220.5, all of which cashed. If it starts slow and shooting is bad, just enjoy the pre-game bet, but I will be adding more live bets if Game 6 starts out at all like Game 5.

Risk: 1.1 units on Suns/Clippers Game Total Under 215 Points on DraftKings to win 1 unit.

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