2021 Houston Open Preview
With only two regular events left on the 2021 calendar, the PGA Tour finally returns to the States in the form of the Houston Open. Memorial Park Golf Course is a long Par 70 that sits at 7,412 yards. Not only is it the fourth-longest course in the annual Tour rotation, but it also played as the fifth-toughest regular course with golfers averaging 1.03 strokes over par in last year’s event. With the year winding down, we have a decent field teeing it up this week headlined by Sam Burns, Brooks Koepka, Scottie Scheffler and Patrick Reed.
Course Details and Stats
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- Par: 70
- Length: 7,412 yards (4th-longest on Tour)
- Architect: John Bredemus/Tom Doak
- Average Score Relative to Par: +1.03 (5th Toughest)
- Grasses: Fairway - Bermuda; Greens - Bermuda; Rough - Bermuda 2.25"
- Greens Size: 7,000 square feet (slightly larger than average)
- Greens Speed: 12 stimpmeter (faster than average)
- Field Size: 132 players
- Cut Line: Top 65 and ties will advance
- Strength of Field: 337 (350 is average)
*Player quotes from above thanks to Steve Bamford @Bamfordgolf and Josh Culp @futureoffantasy
Course and Field Preview
Memorial Park Golf Course is a long Par 70 that sits at 7,412 yards. It is a 100% bermudagrass course with five Par 3s and three Par 5s. With only 17 bunkers and four holes with direct water danger, the bermuda rough and undulating green complexes are the course’s most prominent defense. Scoring will be difficult. Last year, only three players reached double digits under par. The Par 5s are the most difficult on Tour and are another reason there are fewer birdie (and eagle) opportunities than normal. The combination of gnarly rough and length will present difficulty off the tee for golfers this week. With five of the Par 4s over 490 yards, distance is definitely an advantage. However, golfers who miss the fairway will have to deal with the bermuda rough that caused golfers all sorts of problems last year. In 2020, golfers in the rough only hit the green 43% of the time, one of the lowest percentages on Tour. Even though the rough height is only 2.25 inches, as Scott Stallings told me, it was so difficult last year because, “At that length, it is very unpredictable and volatile. Also last year the greens and course were brand new, which probably led to those numbers being low.” Along with Driving Distance, Good Drive % will also be crucial this week. It measures how often approach shots stay on the green in regulation even when tee shots land in the rough.
On approach shots, players can expect to hit numerous long irons into greens that have specific beneficial landing areas in order to avoid the ball running off the putting surface. The combination of bermudagrass rough and firm, young bermuda greens makes it tough to land greens in regulation if you are trying to attack from off the fairway. With a scrambling rate at 3% lower than Tour average and tough undulating green complexes with runoff areas on almost every hole, a player’s ability to get up and down for par and avoid bogeys will be critical to success. A majority of the player quotes from last year commented on how tough the greens were when chipping and scrambling. Once on the greens, the data shows putting averages are very close to the Tour average. These greens do run a bit faster than normal, and if they are firm, they will really test a player's ability to avoid bogeys.
According to the current betting odds, Sam Burns is the favorite at +1600, followed by Scottie Scheffler (+1800), Cameron Smith (+2000), Sungjae Im (+2300) and Tony Finau (+2500). Other notables like Brooks Koepka, Patrick Reed and Tyrrell Hatton are also in the field. Last year's champion, Carlos Ortiz, had to withdraw due to a shoulder injury. For many of these players, it is their last event of the year, and I believe motivation will be high to gain momentum heading into the offseason.
Houston Open Key Splits, Player Selection and Final Model
Based on the data, the most important splits and metrics this week include Driving Distance, Good Drive %, Approach from 150-200 yards, Scrambling and Bogey Avoidance. Three custom splits in the model can also help us narrow down our player pool. These include "SG: Swing Season" (annual performance from September through November), "SG: Long, Difficult Courses", and "SG: All-Bermuda Courses". Scrambling is another key stat this week. Last year's champion, Carlos Ortiz, gained 6.1 strokes Around the Green here. In fact, each of the top five players from last year gained 1.5 strokes or more Around the Green for the week. I am also looking at golfers who have had success on faster bermudagrass greens. Finally, I do not believe this is the type of course that allows a "long shot" to come out of nowhere and win. I'm not a huge proponent of a longshot outright as is, but especially on a course like Memorial Park, it takes true talent, skill and shot-making ability to even have a chance to win. To me, this is a course where both power and touch will be paramount.
As I attempt to improve the model, this week's version adds betting odds and DraftKings salaries for the first time. Also included is a +/- "value" number, which shows how those odds and salary rankings compare to the model rankings. The higher the positive number the more value a player has based on the final model rankings.
Houston Open Final Model
Outright Betting Selections
Scottie Scheffler +1800
Thus far over his young career, Scottie Scheffler is gaining a reputation for thriving on difficult courses. The data bears that out as he has the third-highest strokes gained average and ranks 16th in the field by outperforming his baseline by 0.63 strokes per round on these types of courses. He finished fourth last week at Mayakoba and is trending towards his first PGA Tour victory. He has the ninth-best SG: Approach numbers in my model and is second-best on “All-Bermuda” grass courses. He also has the length off the tee and the “high-ceiling” short game to emerge victorious this week.
Cameron Smith +2300
(1u) FanDuel
At first glance, Cameron Smith is not someone in which I had any interest. Once the model played out, though, he finished fifth overall and really stood out in many of the important categories. While his Strokes Gained numbers don't jump out, he is better than average in each area and really stands out in the other sub-models. He is sixth in the "Swing Season" model, eighth in the "Safety" model, and in the top 15 in three other splits. While he has not played in over three weeks, that has not limited him in the past. I really love him for a top-20 bet but also think he has a great chance to win the whole thing.
Sungjae Im +2400
(1u) FanDuel
Finishing first in my overall model, Sungjae Im is also the highest-ranked golfer in the field over the past 24 rounds. While not the longest hitter off the tee, Im is among the most accurate drivers of the ball. He is a great “rough” player hitting the green in 58% of rough approaches from 150-200 yards. He is fifth in Good Drive %, eighth in Around the Green and the seventh-best bermuda putter in the field.
Tony Finau +2800
Known as one of the bigger hitters on Tour, Tony Finau is also excellent with a very soft touch around the greens. Finishing third overall in my model, he ranks high in past performance on other tough “scrambling” greens. He ranks 14th on “Long Difficult” courses and is one of the best Tee-to-Green players in the field. If he can putt consistently he will be right in the mix come Sunday.
Brooks Koepka +3000
(1u) FanDuel
The self-proclaimed “range-rat” returns to a course that fits his eye, and where he finished in fifth place last year. Brooks Koepka admitted he is motivated to reverse his poor recent results. With this being his last main event for the calendar year, I expect Koepka to be laser-focused this week. He ranks second overall on these long and difficult courses and has all the tools to finish high on the leaderboard this week.
Patrick Reed +4500
After a period of sickness and struggles, Patrick Reed came roaring back with a second-place finish in Bermuda. Last week, he struggled again, though. This week, he returns home to the Houston area to a course that values his world-class short game. The best “Around the Green” player in the world, Reed has the skill to handle these green complexes and avoid bogeys. While his ball-striking has been inconsistent, these are the types of courses he thrives on. He ranks third in the field on “Long Difficult” courses and third on courses with all bermudagrass. He has the winning equity and course fit to finish on top. This is a great value play.
Max Homa +6600
What a disrespectful opening price for a multiple event winner from this calendar year on the PGA Tour. While it is very possible Max Homa comes out rusty and completely misses the cut, he also has the ability, and the course fit, to lift the trophy come Sunday. Though his current metrics are average at best, when his odds dip this low, he becomes an "auto-bet" based on win equity and course fit alone.
Mito Pereira +8000
Sorry, but I can't just quit the guy. Coming off his first “awful” tournament performance, losing 9.6 strokes in two rounds at Mayakoba, I’ll return to Mito Pereira’s excellent overall ball-striking numbers. He is fourth in Good Drive % and fourth overall in my SG: Approach model. Some have claimed he struggles putting on Bermuda, but he only has six measured rounds on that surface. He also ranks top-five in the field in my Scoring/Safety model combination.
Keith Mitchell +15000
Keith Mitchell was a late add to the list but presents too much value to pass up. He has proven to be a true boom-or-bust type of player. In his last eight tournaments, he has finished in the top eight three times and has finished 55th or worse in the other five events. He is third-best in my OTT model and has the Driving Distance to boot. Bermuda is also his best putting surface.
Finishing Positions
Top 10
Top 20
- Scottie Scheffler +105 (2u) PointsBet
- Cam Smith +125 (2u) PointsBet
- Tony Finau +140 (1u) PointsBet
- Tyrrell Hatton +155 (1u) PointsBet
- Talor Gooch +155 (1u) FanDuel
- Brooks Koepka +160 (1u) PointsBet
- Aaron Wise +165 (1u) PointsBet
- Patrick Reed +240 (1u) FanDuel
Top 30
- Matthew Wolff +115 (1.5u) FanDuel
- Sungjae Im +120 (2u) FanDuel
- Joaquin Niemann +125 (1u) FanDuel
- Cameron Tringale +130 (2u) FanDuel
- Shane Lowry +140 (1u) FanDuel
- Russell Henley +150 (1u) FanDuel
- Max Homa +180 (1u) FanDuel
Top 40
For the most up-to-date picks, or if you have any questions or comments, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.
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