Thursday Night DFS Single-Game Breakdown: Chiefs at Broncos

Oct 16, 2019
Thursday Night DFS Single-Game Breakdown: Chiefs at Broncos

The 4-2 Kansas City Chiefs are coming off of consecutive losses and hope to turn things around on Thursday night when they visit the 2-4 Denver Broncos. Can the home team Broncos, winners of their last two, pull off the upset as home dogs? We have a high-powered offense taking on a team that loves to establish the run with a good 1-2 punch in Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. Points should be scored and it's an intriguing game from a fantasy perspective to analyze.

Let's break down the game and how we can find the edge that might get us at the top of the leaderboards.


Watkins sat out last week's game but put in a limited practice yesterday. He's still uncertain for tomorrow, but if he puts in another practice today, it's a good indicator that he'll give it a go tomorrow. His absence is a bump for the backup WRs on Kansas City, but there are so many of them now with the addition of Pringle to the rotation, that it's hard to narrow it down. DeMarcus Robinson is the most likely beneficiary if Watkins sits. If he does play, I love Watkins as a play because of the likelihood of Broncos star CB Chris Harris keeping an eye on Tyreek Hill opening up some possibilities.

Evaluation of Vegas Spread and Total

Chiefs -3 Over/Under 49

The Chiefs have struggled the last few weeks, but are still road favorites against a Broncos team that has looked better the last few weeks. Vegas expects the game to be close with some points put up on the board. I tend to agree, and would not be surprised to see the Broncos win outright. Let's look at the likely game flow given this spread and total and assign some probabilities to each potential outcome.

  • Close, low-scoring game (<40 points) - 0%
  • Close, average-scoring game (40-49 points) - 40%
  • Close, high-scoring game (50+ points) - 40%
  • Blowout for the home team, low-scoring game - 0%
  • Blowout for the home team, average-scoring game - 0%
  • Blowout for the home team, high-scoring game - 0%
  • Blowout for the away team, low-scoring game - 0%
  • Blowout for the away team, average-scoring game - 10%
  • Blowout for the away team, high-scoring game - 10%
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