Trader's Alley: Week 2 Buy Low, Sell High and Hold

Sep 11, 2019

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Week 1 is one of my favorite weeks of the NFL season. Not only do we finally get to see the team’s we’ve been thinking about all offseason in action, but there is no greater theater for surprises and overreactions than in Week 1. I know it was an eternity ago, but let’s rewind the clock just one year and look back at what happened in Week 1 of 2018. The Buccaneers went into New Orleans and hung 48 points in an upset victory over the Saints. The Jets went to Detroit and smoked the Lions 48-17. The Broncos snuck by the Seahawks, 27-24. And the Bengals beat the Colts in Indianapolis 34-23. All four of those winning teams picked in the top 12 of the 2019 NFL Draft. My point in this exercise is that Week 1 can be incredibly misleading for what is yet to unfold in the remained of the NFL season. However, this creates opportunities in fantasy football to exploit values on the trade market.

Below, I look at several Week 1 surprises (good or bad) and offer a take on whether you should buy, sell, or hold the player(s). As the season progresses, this column will develop and I’ll add more to it using the 4for4 Trade Evaluator. For now, use the Week 1 madness to your advantage and get ready for Week 2.

BUY LOW or HOLD – David Montgomery, RB, Chicago Bears

Few rookies built up more fantasy hype this offseason than Montgomery. So it was incredibly deflating to see Montgomery essentially play third fiddle in the Bears backfield with Mike Davis and Tarik Cohen on Thursday night versus the Packers. While Montgomery led the squad with a whopping six carries, he saw just one target versus seven for Davis and 10 for Montgomery. Making matters worse, per the 4for4 Snap App, Montgomery had the lowest snap share of the bunch, seeing the field on just 38% of the Bears’ plays.

Now, whether this was the result of a game-plan or just veteran deference remains to be seen. Montgomery looked great in his limited work, forcing multiple missed tackles and hauling in his one target for 27 yards. He’s very talented and should see more work as the season progresses. If you have Montgomery, be patient. If you know the Montgomery owner in your league is already worried, use this as an opportunity to buy low on the rookie.