DFS Wide Receiver Analysis: Week 7

Oct 19, 2017

Each week I break down the wide receiver position and explain how you should think about players in terms of tiers, their overall impact on lineup construction, and potential range of outcomes.

Below is an analysis of this week’s wide receivers on the main slate, including the upside and downside of each relevant player, and how you might adjust your approach to the position depending on the game type. The chalk and any referenced ownership percentages are derived from the 4for4 DFS Ownership Projections.

Chalk

Even the most casual DFS players recognize how important volume is for wide receivers, so it’s no surprise five of the chalk receivers rank in the top 13 at their position in targets per game while the sixth is in the game with the highest over/under of the week. One of the best ways to exploit this—especially with wide receivers, where Vegas lines offer little predictive value in terms of fantasy scoring—is to seek similar volume from less popular plays. The chalk this week has a decent range of salaries, allowing for a multitude of price pivots.

Dallas is expected to score over 25 points against a 49ers defense ranked 25th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to wide receivers, making Dez Bryant ($8,200 FD/$7,800 DK) one of the most coveted players of Week 7. Only one player has accounted for a larger percentage of their team’s targets in the red zone than Dez and no one has seen a larger share of targets inside the 10-yard line. Just eight teams run at a higher rate than the Cowboys in neutral situations, so if Dallas gets up big early via the run, there’s a chance Dez underwhelms in a great matchup.
High ownership often follows a big game and Larry Fitzgerald ($7,500/$7,300) posted a 10/138/1 line against Tampa Bay last week. Only three players are averaging more targets per game than Fitz and he leads the league in red zone targets. Arizona faces a Rams team ranked 11th in wide receiver aFPA, though.
With Emmanuel Sanders out this week, Demaryius Thomas ($7,100/$5,800) is expected to see a huge uptick in targets—with Sanders out for just a portion of the game last week, Thomas was targeted 14 times. The Chargers rank 24th in wide receiver aFPA, but they have yet to allow a 100-yard receiver and teams have thrown at the second-lowest rate in the red zone against them.
In the game with the highest over/under of the week, Julio Jones ($8,800) will be a popular FanDuel play (this game isn’t on DraftKings’ main slate). The matchup is spectacular—New England has allowed the most yards in the league to opposing wide receivers and ranks 28th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position. Bill Belichick usually schemes a successful game plan to limit an opponent’s primary target and Julio ranks just 22nd in targets per game with only a single red zone target on the season.
Facing a depleted Green Bay secondary, Michael Thomas ($7,700/$7,500) projects as one of the most popular DraftKings plays of the week. The Saints have the highest implied point total on DK’s main slate and the Packers rank 21st against wide receivers, allowing at least 15.1 PPR points to a receiver in 5-of-6 games. With a full complement of healthy receivers for the Saints last week, Thomas did see a target share below 20% for the first time all year.
No player in action this week has seen a higher target share than Jarvis Landry ($7,000/$6,800) and he’s expected to be a chalky play on DK, where volume is rewarded. Landry has been Jay Cutler’s favorite red zone target, as well, accounting for 36% of the looks inside the 20 and 43% inside the 10. With DeVante Parker listed as questionable, Landry could see the 40%+ target share that he saw last week, but his upside could be limited in a game with two teams that rank in the bottom three in the league in neutral pace.