DraftDay Week 8 Values & Top Plays
Surveying the scene this week on DraftDay, there are a bunch of great inexpensive options at every position but QB. I think this dictates that you spend up at QB; I want Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees as an anchor in all of my lineups.
At RB, in addition to the players I list below, there are many solid options under $10,000, including but not limited to Justin Forsett ($9,900), Joique Bell ($9,700), Ahmad Bradshaw ($9,650), and Anthony Dixon ($5,800).
At WR, there are sub-$10,000 options abound as well: Michael Floyd ($9,800), Emmanuel Sanders (Thursday, $9,700), Brandin Cooks ($8,800), Doug Baldwin ($8,450), Keenan Allen (Thursday, $8,250), to name a few.
At TE, there’s Zach Ertz versus the Cards sitting there at $8,100, and Travis Kelce at $7,750.
As has become a weekly tradition, here’s my stab at the Million Dollar Perfect Lineup:
- QB Aaron Rodgers: 13:0 TD:Int ratio in last four games; Saints 30th in QB aFPA.
- RB Matt Forte: On pace for 118 catches and 997 yards receiving before even taking into account rushing stats.
- RB Arian Foster: 100 yards rushing in every game he’s been healthy, already two multi-TD games and 25 targets in last four games.
- WR Jordy Nelson: Leads NFL in red zone targets and playing in highest over/under of the week.
- WR Antonio Brown: He’s really good at football every week.
- WR Golden Tate: The Saints defense is prone to coverage busts and Tate has been putting up Megatron numbers of late. Update: I may change this pick if Calvin Johnson (ankle), who returned to practice Thursday, plays. I'm thinking of doubling up on a Rodgers stack by going with Randall Cobb.
- TE Rob Gronkowski: Averages a TD every 5.8 career receptions and the Bears rank 29th in TE aFPA.
- K Adam Vinatieri: Multiple FG attempts in six straight games and the Steelers are dead last in K aFPA.
- DEF Philadelphia Eagles: Seemingly always find a way to score TDs.
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QB Aaron Rodgers @ NO $16,700
At $16.700, Rodgers is a “top play”, rather than a “value”, but his matchup is too good to ignore. The Saints are 30th in QB aFPA, allowing 277.5 passing yards per game and 7.74 yards per attempt.
Packers-Saints opened with an over/under of 51, and has since ballooned to 55.5, with some sportsbooks going as high as 56.5. The game is expected to be close with the Saints installed as 1.5 point favorites, which means there is a legitimate chance for a shootout. In four games since urging fans to “R-E-L-A-X”, A-Rod has thrown 13 TDs and 0 interceptions, with at least 3 TDs in each game. There’s no reason to think he’ll slow down versus the Saints poor pass defense.
QB Drew Brees vs. GB $15,200
Brees is in play for all the same reasons I mentioned above about Vegas’s outlook for the Packers-Saints game. In addition, he and the entire Saints offense historically tend to play much better at home. Brees has thrown for at least 340 yards and 2 TDs in his last three games, and will likely have to do even more than that to keep pace with Rodgers this weekend.
QB Tony Romo vs. WAS $12,700
Romo is a nice mid-priced option against the Redskins, who rank dead last in QB aFPA. The Redskins have allowed at least two passing TDs in every game since Week 3, when they starting playing without three members of their starting secondary. Romo has thrown at least two TD passes in five straight games, and thrown for at least 250 yards in four straight. Vegas likes the Cowboys to put up 29 points this week, which should give Romo a safe floor with some upside.
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