Fantasy Upside
The “decline” of Aaron Rodgers saw the 36-year-old QB throw for 4,000 yards, 26 touchdowns and four interceptions to yet another top-10 QB finish in fantasy football. Yet again plagued by injuries to himself and his receiving group all the while calling the plays under new head coach Matt LaFleur led to a drop in touchdowns, but most notably the Green Bay running game was one of the most impressive in the NFL. Behind Aaron Jones league-leading 19 rushing touchdowns and one of the best defensives in the NFL, an oft-positive game script did not require Rodgers’ usual late-game theatrics and typical passing attempts. The expectation is a serious regression in rushing touchdowns and step back for the defense, allowing Rodgers to throw the ball more and a closer return to his former self.
Fantasy Downside
The elephant in the room when addressing Aaron Rodgers is Green Bay’s refusal to surround him with an adequate supporting cast this offseason. Their “biggest” offensive free agent was WR Devin Funchess who has recently opted to sit out the season due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Their first-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft was developmental QB Jordan Love and they spent a second-round pick on a plodding RB in A.J. Dillon. With an accumulation of injuries coupled with his age and a lack of receiving depth behind All-Pro WR Davante Adams, Rodgers might have his work cut out for him.
2020 Bottom Line
The upcoming season looks like it might Aaron Rodgers’ last as a Green Bay Packer. The refusal to add talent at the receiver position while adding Love is a clear indicator that Rodgers' days are numbered—however, that might make for one last hurrah. With an expected decline in rushing production and defensive effectiveness, Rodgers can easily find himself in shootouts throwing the ball to one of the best WRs in the league with Adams. We have Rodgers ranked 13th amongst quarterbacks and his current ADP has him going early in the eighth round. While it seems like the fantasy community does not think Rodgers is a QB1 in fantasy anymore, it would be unwise to bet against the future Hall of Famer who has serious low-end QB1 upside.
Week 17 at Detroit Lions
Aaron Rodgers threw for 216 yards and no touchdowns with an interception last week against the Vikings. It marked his seventh consecutive games under 243 yards and was his third game this season without a touchdown pass. It's well past time to no longer consider Rodgers a QB1 from week to week. This week, however, he does get a cushy matchup against the Lions. And with a No. 2 playoff seed on the line, the Packers will be very motivated to win this one. The problem is they could get up early and Rodgers could spend most of the afternoon handing off, or worse, watching from the sideline. He should be a QB1 play this week, but be careful.
Week 16 at Minnesota Vikings
Perhaps it's time to hang up the thought of Aaron Rodgers being a consistent top-tier fantasy quarterback. Last week against the Bears, he threw for just 203 yards, completing less than 50 percent of his passes with one touchdown. It was a winning effort on the field, but probably not for your fantasy team. Rodgers has now thrown for 243 yards or less in six straight starts, though he did have one four-touchdown game mixed in there. The Vikings aren't impenetrable as a pass defense, but their pass rush will make things tough on Rodgers. He threw for 209 yards and two scores back in Week 2 against the Vikings. He's a low-end QB1 this week.
Week 15 vs. Chicago Bears
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers relied more on the running game last week, as he attempted just 28 passes -- a season-low -- and threw for 195 yards and a touchdown against the Redskins. He did add 16 yards rushing, but that's not what you were counting on when you selected Rodgers. He has a much tougher matchup this week against the Bears. Rodgers threw for just 203 yards and a touchdown in the regular-season opener against the Bears. He's a low-end QB1 play this week.
Week 14 vs. Washington Redskins
Aaron Rodgers didn't throw the ball a lot last week, but he didn't have to against the Giants, throwing for 243 yards and four touchdowns. He's at home this week against the Redskins, who, while not as bad as the Giants against the pass, are still middle of the pack. The game script should set up well for Rodgers to have another very efficient game. He's a solid QB1 start this week.
Week 13 vs. New York Giants
Aaron Rodgers managed just 104 passing yards and a touchdown in a forgettable loss last week at San Francisco. He did scramble for 38 yards, but it was hardly the kind of effort anyone would expect from Rodgers. There should be no better way to bounce back than a game against the Giants, even on the road. Games on different coasts back to back is tough, but Rodgers should have his way with the Giants secondary, which ranks 21st against opposing quarterbacks.
Week 12 at San Francisco 49ers
After a week off to regain some health and continue to work out some of the kinks in the passing game, Aaron Rodgers should be good to go this week, right? Not so fast. The 49ers have been tough to move the ball on through the air. The pass rush is fierce, allowing the corners to play things close to the vets. Rodgers being Rodgers, he's still a QB1 this week, but just temper the expectations.
Week 10 vs. Carolina Panthers
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers had a week to forget in Los Angeles against the Chargers last week, as he was held to a season-low 161 passing yards with just one TD and 22 rushing yards. He won't find life any easier this week, as the Panthers rush the passer well and have allowed just 11 TD passes with 10 interceptions. Rodgers being Rodgers, you expect him to bounce back from the sub-par week, but there are only a handful of better options than Rodgers at home.
Week 9 at L.A. Chargers
Aaron Rodgers followed up his big Week 7 game with another stellar performance last week, throwing for 305 yards and three scores against the Chiefs while also scrambling for 49 yards. He's settled in throwing to the running backs while working without Davante Adams. Adams is expected to be back this week against the Chargers, but Rogers should still continue to get the ball to Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams. He's a solid start again this week as he seems to be settling into the new offense and the Chargers defense is less than stellar.
Week 8 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
How good was Aaron Rodgers last week? His production was one of the best in fantasy football since 2001. Rodgers threw for 429 yards and five touchdowns, while also running for a score in a monumental game. It was easily his best game of the season. Now, he gets to face the Chiefs. The game is in Arrowhead Stadium and Kansas City's defense is getting healthy, but Rodgers should be a very solid start again this week.
