Week 15 at Baltimore Ravens
Age, drama, injury, illness: none of it seems to stop the General Sherman-like approach that Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers continues to take on his march through the 2021 fantasy football season. Rodgers missed Week 9 with COVID-19, then had a single down week as he shook off the rust in Week 10. From that time forward, only a bye week has temporarily halted the carnage emitted from the right arm of Chico's favorite son. Rodgers has averaged 29.8 fantasy points per game over his last three, and doesn't appear to be stopping any time soon.
Week 15 finds him traveling to the Baltimore Ravens, who rank seventh-highest by schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to quarterbacks. After summarily destroying two other top-10 defenses by this metric, it's fair to assume that Rodgers' mid-range QB1 status by our projection models may end up more floor than ceiling. He has incredible upside in this contest.
Week 14 vs. Chicago Bears
If playing on a broken pinkie toe is any real limitation to the Green Bay Packers star quarterback, his play while dealing with it hasn't indicated as much at all. Since first suffering the injury a month ago, Aaron Rodgers has completed 74 of 115 passing attempts (64.3%), averaging over 325 yards and two touchdowns per game. He has also tossed just one interception in that time. Rodgers surpassed 25 fantasy points twice in those three games.
In Week 14, Rodgers and the Pack will host the Chicago Bears in a game where Green Bay is favored by more than two possessions, albeit with a dangerously low projected scoring environment. Still, based on the Bears' defense allowing the fourth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points (aFPA) to quarterbacks, Rodgers is an elite fantasy option this week. Start him with confidence in Week 14, even if he misses another full week of practice.
Week 12 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Even a dubiously-injured toe and the recent COVID-19 diagnosis couldn't stop Green Bay Packers star quarterback Aaron Rodgers from lighting up their border rivals, the Minnesota Vikings, in Week 11. In a full-on shootout, Rodgers passed for nearly 400 yards and four touchdowns on just 33 attempts, and he ended up the fantasy QB2 overall on the week.
Week 12should present a larger challenge for AR12 and company, however: the Los Angeles Rams will visit town and bring with them a more middle-of-the-league ranking by schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to quarterbacks. Our models still project Rodgers as a mid-range fantasy QB1 in this matchup, though the injuries to the Green Bay offensive line make hopes even wobblier in this spot for a successful passing game.
Week 11 at Minnesota Vikings
Aaron Rodgers came out of a missed Week 9 and engineered a slow-paced, grindy win for the Green Bay Packers in Week 10. His return to the field saw him post nearly 300 yards passing, but with no touchdowns and one interception: a hollow-feeling 10.48 standard scoring fantasy points. His typical pinpoint accuracy was missing, but he did increase his yards per attempt slightly in this contest, so you have to hope that this is just rust and not the after-effects of illness.
In Week 11, Rodgers and company will travel to Minnesota and take on a defense allowing the 12th-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points (aFPA) to quarterbacks. Our models project Rodgers as a mid-range QB1 this week in spite of the Packers' status as visitors against moderate-to-good passing defense.
Week 10 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Aaron Rodgers will be eligible to come off the COVID-19 injury list on Saturday of this week, which should give advance notice to fantasy managers on whether or not he'll play in Week 10. Reports from the Green Bay Packers quarterback and the coaching staff indicate that they expect this to be the case, but he'll have to pass tests to make sure he is healthy enough to play.
That said, if he is active, the Packers' veteran quarterback projects very well against the Seattle Seahawks' 16th-ranked defense by schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to quarterbacks. Our models project Rodgers as a mid-range QB1 for fantasy this week if he's healthy enough to make his return.
Week 9 at Kansas City
Aaron Rodgers is currently on the COVID-19 injured reserve and will miss Week 9's game.
Week 8 at Arizona Cardinals
Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is currently eighth among quarterbacks in total fantasy points this season, but he hasn't attempted more than 36 passes in a game and has passed for more than two touchdowns just twice in seven games. How is he doing this? A ridiculous 68.3% completion rate and a 17-to-3 touchdown-to-turnover ratio are buoying Rodgers' fantasy value; his hallmark is precision. Rodgers is a classic fantasy game manager in 2021; it's highly unlikely that he'll be below a QB1 in any given week, but it's just as unlikely that he'll be a top-three option and win your week for you.
Fantasy managers should take their high floor and managed expectations into Week 8 for Rodgers, who faces an Arizona Cardinals defense running one of the fastest paces in the league, but allows the fourth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points (aFPA) to quarterbacks. Rodgers comes in by our models as the QB12 this week; a low-end starting option, despite the lack of Davante Adams and Allen Lazard.
Week 7 vs. Washington Football Team
As reliable as ever, quarterback Aaron Rodgers didn't throw a ton last week, but when he did he made it count. Rodgers completed over 70% of his passes, tossing at least two touchdowns for the fifth game in a row in 2021. His seven carries for 19 yards and one touchdown gallop boosted him into the top-10 of passers this week, as he remains a strong low-end QB1 in any given week.
Week 7 sees Rodgers and company return to Green Bay, where the Packers will play host to the Washington Football Team. Washington is allowing the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing passers, which provides a strong matchup floor for Rodgers this week. Our models project him as fantasy's QB6 here.
Week 6 at Bears
The Green Bay Packers' quarterback will someday surely enter the Hall of Fame, but at this point in his fantasy career, he's more in the Hall of Consistently Pretty Good. Aaron Rodgers capped off another performance in Week 5 with a more than 69% completion rate, over 300 passing yards, and multiple passing touchdowns – and, yet, he still ranked just QB13 in scoring on the week. You're rostering the King of the Discount Double Check at this point because of his high floor, not his illustrious ceiling.
Week 6 sees the Packers head to the Windy City to take on the Chicago Bears, a defense allowing just the sixth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. The Bears get about an average pressure rate on the quarterback, but Rodgers is one of the least-pressured passers in the league, so the question is more if the precise Rodgers can fit a pass in against a secondary allowing a below-average passer rating. Our models like Rodgers as fantasy's QB10 in Week 6, a low-end starter due to tough contexts.
Week 5 at Cincinnati Bengals
Aaron Rodgers remains one of the NFL's most stable fantasy quarterbacks, outside of the Week 1 stinker the Green Bay Packers posted across the board. After three weeks of 19.0 fantasy points or more, Rodgers should be considered a low-end QB1 with upside. He won't run like he used to, and – more often than not – these days precision takes precedence over prolificness in his profile. That said, he still has the potential to put up top-tier numbers in any given week.
Things line up that way for Rodgers in Week 5, as the Pack head to face the Cincinnati Bengals. Cincy is allowing the seventh-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and the 13th-most to opposing receivers. With a 50.5-point total and two bad defenses in play, this contest has sneaky shootout potential. Start Rodgers with confidence here; he comes in as our QB10 by our projection models.
