Week 4 vs. Steelers
Despite a solid performance as an NFL quarterback against a tough defense in Week 3, Aaron Rodgers was just the QB15 in fantasy football. His 19.0 points (261 passing yards, two touchdowns) were about the expectation for last week, but there's little upside for a passer attempting under 30 throws and just over one rush per game.
Week 4 sees Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers host the Pittsburgh Steelers, who currently rank just outside the top-10 toughest units in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Two of the Steelers' top edge rushers are banged up, which could allow Rodgers to sustain his high floor in this game. Still, the Packers are 7.5-point Vegas favorites here and there's little reason to expect Rodgers will rise above our models' Week 4 QB11 projection.
Week 3 at 49ers
The reigning MVP bounced back from a horrendous Week 1 start by annihilating the hapless Detroit Lions in Week 2. Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers remains extremely efficient; through two games, he has a 67.3% completion rate and 7.3% touchdown rate.
The only problem for his fantasy profile going forward is that his passing volume is way down. Over the last four years, Rodgers has averaged a 17-game pace of 596 pass attempts; this season, he's on pace for just 468. In addition, he offers little to no rushing upside at this point, currently pacing for 34 attempts for 51 yards while he had previously given fantasy managers a 17-game average of 47 attempts for 224 yards and a few scores.
Week 3 also sees a hugely troublesome matchup for Rodgers, as they go to visit the San Francisco 49ers. The Niners allow the fourth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this year, and fill-in left tackle Elgton Jenkins has been downgraded to "doubtful" for this contest. There's upside for Rodgers of course, but there's also a reason our models project him as just the QB11 for fantasy this week. If you have a better option available, it's worth considering benching A-Rod for Week 3.
Week 2 vs. Lions
It's the first rivalry week for the Green Bay Packers in 2021, and it couldn't come at a better time for quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Week 1 saw the reigning MVP get rocked and post just 1.3 fantasy points. The Packers' offensive line held up, in spite of the absence of All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari, allowing just the 18th-most pressures for Week 1 quarterbacks. The Packers simply got too far behind too early and never were able to catch up.
Week 2, however, features a much more forgiving opponent in the bottom-of-the-barrel Detroit Lions. Detroit so far has given up a league-average amount of fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Our matchups tool has them as the easiest fantasy matchup for the position this week, however, which lines up with a 30-point implied total. That puts Rodgers in line for the eighth-best fantasy value for Week 2, as we project him for 289.1 passing yards, 2.4 touchdowns, and 0.4 interceptions on 36.3 attempts, adding 3.2 rushes for 12.0 yards and 0.2 scores on the ground.
Week 1 at New Orleans
After an offseason of drama, it will be interesting to see if Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers misses a beat with his team coming into Week 1. A trip to visit the New Orleans Saints should be no cakewalk for a mere mortal – they project as the fifth-hardest fantasy quarterback matchup – but Rodgers is no mere mortal on a football field. Our models project Rodgers as the fifth-best fantasy passer in 2021's inaugural slate, with 283.9 passing yards, 2.2 passing touchdowns, and 0.3 interceptions. In addition, having to play at a neutral site in Jacksonville may allow Green Bay and Rodgers to avoid some of the environmental disadvantages of playing on the road.
Fantasy Upside
Despite turning 37 during the 2020 season, Aaron Rodgers staved off the grasping hands of the NFL career Grim Reaper to win his third MVP award. He compiled 24.2 points per game on the way to finishing the season as the QB3 in fantasy football. Rodgers set career-highs in touchdown passes (48) and completion rate (70.7%) without sacrificing passing efficiency (8.2 yards per attempt) or becoming reckless (5 interceptions). The Packers’ offensive line also allowed Rodgers to be sacked just 20 times – the fewest total of his career.
Fantasy Downside
Prior to his 2020 tour of destruction, Rodgers had seen his passing totals and many of his peripherals slip steadily downward since his age-33 2016 season. His 9.1% passing touchdown and 1.0% interception rates will almost certainly regress to the average (career 6.3% touchdown and 1.4% interception rates) in 2021 since the only help the Packers’ paper-thin receiving corps added this offseason was third-round slot man Amari Rodgers. While still mobile in the pocket, Rodgers is no longer a dynamic rusher; instead, he’s more likely to scramble 25 to 30 times a year for about 150 yards.
Bottom Line
If he plays, Aaron Rodgers will likely remain one of fantasy football’s most effective quarterbacks and a solid QB1, despite his advancing age. Our models project the disgruntled All-Pro to finish as the QB10 in 2021, but an ADP in the late sixth to middle seventh rounds as the QB8 is a bit rich for my tastes. I’d rather wait another round for Jalen Hurts, another two for Ryan Tannehill, or stream the position than pass up on the skill position players available in the middle rounds.
Week 17 at Chicago
Rodgers had an excellent game last week against the Tennessee Titans as he completed 21-of-25 passes for 231 yards, four touchdowns and an interception. Looking to finish the NFL regular offseason strong, Rodgers will take on the Chicago Bears in Week 17. Last time out against Chicago in Week 12, Rodgers threw four touchdowns, so he will be looking for a repeat performance. Expect Rodgers to take another leap into the MVP conversation as an upside QB1.
Week 16 vs Tennessee
Rodgers had a down game last week against the Carolina Panthers as he completed 20-of-29 passes for a season-low 143 yards and one touchdown. Rodgers also had a rushing touchdown, but the Panthers' defense hounded Rodgers all game, very reminiscent of his terrible game earlier this season against Tampa Bay. A blip on Rodgers' incredible season, however, he still leads the league with 40 touchdowns and has a very promising Week 16 matchup.
Green Bay faces the Tennessee Titans this week who currently rank 31st in aFPA to QBs this season, the lowest-ranked team Rodgers has faced this season. For those who survived last week, expect Rodgers to come out guns blazing and put up a gem as he should be counted on for elite QB1 production this week.
Week 15 vs Carolina
Rodgers had his best fantasy game of the season last week against the Detroit Lions, as he completed 36-of-33 passes for 290 yards, three touchdowns and also had 19 rushing yards for a touchdown. This now makes seven games in a row in which Rodgers has thrown for at least three touchdowns, and his 39 passing scores lead the league.
Week 15 brings on the Carolina Panthers who currently rank 29th in aFPA to QBs this season. Rodgers has been excellent all season, and a matchup against the lowly Panthers defense makes him an elite QB1 option for the managers who have made it to the semifinals of their playoff bracket.
Week 14 at Detroit
Rodgers kept his excellent season rolling last week against the Philadelphia Eagles as he completed 35-of-34 passes for 295 yards and three touchdowns. This was too easy for Rodgers and the Pack as they were clearly too much for the lowly Philly defense. Rodgers is not getting nearly enough credit for his play this year as even though he leads the NFL with 36 passing touchdowns, he is on course to surpass his career-high of 45 passing touchdowns from his 2011 MVP season.
Week 14 brings on the Detroit Lions who currently rank 17th in aFPA to QBs this season. Rodgers had a relatively tame performance against the Lions in Week 2 only throwing for two touchdowns and 240 yards. However, this game heavily featured Aaron Jones and his nuclear performance going for over 200 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns, so it is fair to assume that he will not have a duplicate performance. Rodgers is a matchup-proof QB and should have elite QB1 production for the opening week of the fantasy playoffs.
Week 13 vs Philadelphia
Rodgers lit up a tough Chicago defense last week as he finished the game completing 21-of-29 passes for 211 yards and four touchdowns. Rodgers looked all the bit an MVP candidate in this one as he scored at-will against the division rival. For all the talk Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson are getting for MVP (real and Fantasy), Rodgers is firmly in the conversation as his 33 passing touchdowns lead the NFL and his 3,100 passing yards rank fourth.
Week 13 brings one of Rodgers’ easier matchups this season as the Philadelphia Eagles are ranked 21st in aFPA to QBs this season. Rodgers has not shown any signs of slowing down and his incredible efficiency this season has made him virtually matchup proof. Expect high-end QB1 numbers from Rodgers in the fantasy regular-season finale.
