Week 9 versus Tennessee Titans
The unquestioned TE1 for the Rams flopped in a golden spot in Week 8 and now gets one of the better defenses against the tight end position. Tennessee limited Travis Kelce and Dawson Knox to a combined 90 yards receiving with zero scores and is only allowing 31 yards to the position per game. Higbee is in the middle talent-wise among the tight ends the Titans have faced, so do not expect him to be the exception to the rule Week 9.
Week 8 at Houston Texans
Higbee has back-to-back five-catch and 100% snap share weeks, a good sign that the Rams want him on the field as often as possible. Even better news for Higbee is the Texans are 31st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to the tight end position. Houston has allowed a tight end to score in each of the past four weeks, including one two-score game. Higbee is a TE1 with upside to be comfortably in the top 10 of scoring at the position Week 8.
Week 7 vs Lions
Despite being third on the Rams in target share, Tyler Higbee has been efficient with what comes his way. Higbee has caught 22 of 25 targets with the three only coming in two games. That gives him a safe, if low floor against the Detroit Lions. There are a lot of mouths to feed in the Rams offense, so to speak so anything more than his handful of targets should be considered a good week. Higbee a low-end TE1 Week 7.
Week 6 at Giants
A touchdown saved Higbee from having an awful fantasy week. He gets an opportunity to produce more against a similarly bad defense against tight ends in the New York Giants. New York has allowed at least 35 receiving yards or a touchdown to tight ends each week this season, a bar Higbee has crossed in four of five games.
Week 5 at Seahawks
Higbee goes from having one of the more difficult matchups in Week 4 to one of the best in Week 5. The Seahawks are 22 spots worse against tight ends than the Cardinals according to aFPA. Higbee still collected four receptions and 36 yards in a tough matchup and should find some soft spots between the Seahawks' secondary and linebackers. Higbee should finish as a top 12 tight end in Week 5.
Week 4 vs Cardinals
In a surprise few expected, the Arizona Cardinals are good against tight ends! Tyler Higbee will have the third-most difficult matchup based on aFPA as the Cardinals defense has not allowed a tight end to top 20 yards in a game this season. To be fair, Tyler Conklin, Anthony Firkser, Luke Farrell, and Jacob Hollister are not Higbee but the limitations to the position cannot be ignored. Higbee remains a TE1 at a weak position.
Week 3 vs Buccaneers
Week 2 was a reminder that Tyler Higbee has volatility compared to upper-tier tight-end options. His matchup is better on paper Week 3, facing the 24th ranked defense in schedule-adjusted points allowed to the tight end position. The Bucs returned their entire defense from 2020 and except for two injuries is still intact for this game. Higbee had four catches for 19 yards during their Week 11 win over Tampa Bay. The difference this time is no Gerald Everett and no competition from the current backups in L.A. Higbee is a TE2 heading into Week 3 with top 10 upside.
Week 2 vs Colts
Tyler Higbee was the only tight end targeted for the Rams Week 1 and heads into Week 2 against a defense that allowed five catches (five targets) for 57 yards and one touchdown to Gerald Everett and Will Dissly. Seattle is more comfortable with two tight end sets and both have a solid history of passing down work. Higbee has no competition for targets as of now and has top 10 fantasy upside with Matthew Stafford as his quarterback.
Week 1 vs Bears
Week 1 is our first look at Tyler Higbee without the shadow of Gerald Everett lurking (even if injured). His matchup against Chicago is tasty as their defense is ranked 31st in schedule-adjusted positional defensive rankings. Danny Trevathan will not play, but if Higbee gets one-on-one coverage from Trevathan’s replacement Alec Ogletree, he will eat. It is not known if Ogletree or Roquan Smith will take over Trevathan’s coverage duties, but Higbee should be looked at as a TE1 regardless.
In games without Everett in the Rams lineup, Higbee averaged 1.13 more targets, 0.56 more receptions, 3.67 more yards, 0.2 more touchdowns, and 2.04 more PPR points per game.
Fantasy Upside
Fantasy players are aware of Tyler Higbee’s league-winning end to the 2019 season. He did so as the lead tight end for the Rams with Gerald Everett hurt. Everett is now in Seattle and Higbee has the opportunity to play as the unquestioned TE1 in Los Angeles. In eight games since 2017 without Everett in the lineup, Higbee averaged 12.86 half PPR points compared to 4.7 points with Everett. Higbee also saw three more receptions, 0.50 touchdowns, 3.8 targets, and 35.5 more yards per game without Everett (courtesy RotoViz Splits App). Higbee also out-targeted and had more receptions and yards per game in 2020.
Did I mention Higbee gets a quarterback upgrade with Matthew Stafford? Higbee has the ability to stretch the field (8.0 Average Depth of Target) and should see an uptick in workload as Stafford utilizes the tight end position.
Fantasy Downside
The Rams drafted Brycen Hopkins in the fourth round in 2020 with the knowledge that Everett and/or Higbee would not be retained. Los Angeles ran two-tight end sets no fewer than 33% of offensive snaps in any given week last season. Everett averaged 3.8 targets and 2.6 receptions per game alongside Higbee. Those averages were 0.2 and 0.3 behind Higbee. I doubt every vacated target goes to Higbee, especially with Hopkins drafted to be a receiving tight end. Higbee is also 28-years old and is in the window for TE regression.
Higbee has seven games against top-10 defenses against the tight end position according to 4for4’s Schedule-Adjusted Positional Defensive Rankings.
2021 Bottom Line
The arrival of Stafford and the departure of Everett give Higbee the best opportunity at fantasy production of his career. Higbee’s toughest hurdles to being a top-end fantasy tight end are his schedule and offensive scheme’s use of two-tight end formations. Higbee is a TE1 ahead of Week 1 because of his talent and overall shallow positional depth.
