Week 1 at Los Angeles Chargers
Travis Kelce has been one of the very few reliable TE options over the past few years. He's had at least 800 yards in his past four seasons, including back-to-back 1,000-yard efforts. He's a TE1 option pretty much every single week due to the lack of fantasy-worthy players at the position.
However, this week he does draw a tough matchup against the Chargers, who were the No. 1 defense against tight ends a year ago. In his first game against them last year, he had just one reception. In the second game, he had only 46 yards.
We still view Kelce as a TE1 this week, but don't be surprised if this ends up being one of his worst games of the season.
Fantasy Upside
Travis Kelce has been one of the few reliable tight ends in recent years, holding the No. 1 spot for back-to-back seasons in PPR formats. While he had slightly fewer receptions and yards in 2017 than he did in 2016, he finished with more scores and more overall fantasy points last year. He’s in line for another successful season in 2018 and should be viewed as one of the top two options at his position.
Fantasy Downside
Matt Nagy is gone, there’s a change at quarterback and the Chiefs brought in a new weapon in Sammy Watkins. While one of those issues isn’t too much to worry about, the collection of all three might be a bit troubling. And fantasy owners will need to select Kelce high in drafts due to his ADP and may not feel like finding out if any of those changes will cause a problem with such a high draft pick.
2018 Bottom Line
Watkins’ arrival should impact Hill more than Kelce, and one could argue the change of Patrick Mahomes at QB over Alex Smith could actually help Kelce more. At the end of the day, we don’t anticipate these changes affecting Kelce too much. Even if his numbers drop a little bit, he should still be one of the more reliable options at this position and should be viewed as an elite TE.
Wild Card Round vs. Tennessee Titans
Travis Kelce led all tight ends in receptions (83) this season and joined Gronk as the only other TE to finish above 1,000 yards. He was also tied for second at the position in touchdown receptions (8). In a season where good tight ends were hard to come by (only eight had over 600 yards), Kelce was the gift that kept on giving.
Kelce gets a favorable matchup this week against the Titans and should be viewed as the best TE candidate in the opening week of the playoffs.
Week 17 at Denver Broncos
Travis Kelce finished with 47 yards and a score last week as he continues to be one of the best at his position. He'll face a Denver team this week he went off against earlier in the year when he had 133 yards and a score on 7 receptions.
If Kelce plays he'd be a no-brainer TE1 this week. But there's a strong chance the Chiefs rest him due to the fact they've locked up their playoff spot. He's a bit of a risk due to that, and that's why we have him ranked just outside the TE1 range this week.
Week 16 vs. Miami Dolphins
Travis Kelce caught 6 passes (seven targets) for 46 yards last week. It was a disappointing effort by one of the league's best tight ends, but he still finished as the 13th-highest scorer at the position that week (PPR scoring) in a tough matchup. So even when he has an off-game, he's still in the TE1 territory.
Things should get easier for him this week in a favorable matchup against Miami. Kelce has proved most weeks he's one of the best at his position, and he should be viewed as a must-start TE option in Week 16.
Week 15 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Travis Kelce continued his strong season last week, finishing with 74 yards on 7 receptions. He's had at least 70 yards in eight of his 13 starts this season and has been one of the very few tight ends to put up consistent production.
He gets a decent matchup against the Chargers this week, although he did have his worst game of the season when he played them earlier in the year, finishing with 1 yard on 1 catch. We doubt he does that again and he should be a trustworthy TE1 option this week.
Week 14 vs. Oakland Raiders
Travis Kelce made an immediate impact last week, catching 2 touchdown passes in the first quarter. His day didn't get much better after that, but who cares? He finished with 94 yards and 2 scores as he continues to be one of the very few tight ends worth trusting in fantasy.
He gets a favorable matchup against the Raiders this week, who just gave up 100+ yards to the TE position in Week 13. Kelce is a must-start TE on any given week, and the fact he has a good matchup just makes it easier to play him.
Week 13 at New York Jets
Travis Kelce didn't have a strong outing last week, catching just 3 passes for 39 yards. But Kelce has been one of the very few tight ends to put up consistent production this season, so owners shouldn't worry about one down game.
He gets a decent matchup this week against the Jets and should continue to be viewed as a strong TE1. He's going to have down games every now and then, but Kelce is almost always involved and will more than likely have a good game this week.
Week 12 vs. Buffalo Bills
Travis Kelce took advantage of the matchup against the Giants last week, catching 8 passes for 109 yards on an absurd 14 targets. He didn't score a touchdown, though, snapping the Giants' streak of allowing a TD to a TE in every game, but his numbers looked just fine without a score.
Kelce gets a decent matchup this week against the Bills, but honestly, he's so ahead of most players at this position his matchups don't mean much. Kelce is one of the few tight ends you can rely on every week, making him an easy must-start TE1.
Week 11 at New York Giants
Travis Kelce has been a hot streak lately, as he's currently riding a three-game touchdown streak. He's been pretty consistent this season, outside of a few performances. And coming off of a bye week, he'll get a dream matchup against the Giants.
Not only are the Giants allowing the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season, but the Giants are in that position because they've allowed a touchdown to a TE in every single game. It's a pretty remarkable statistic, and it proves Kelce should be in for a great game. Trust him as your TE1 this week.
