Fantasy Upside
As SI.com's Grant Cohn put it, "Tevin Coleman should have played well last season for the 49ers, but didn't. ..." Cohn conceded it was Coleman's first season on the team, but having played for HC Kyle Shanahan from 2015 to 2016 in Atlanta, Coleman knew the offense -- one of the most running-back-friendly offenses in the NFL. Plus, he had one of the league's best blockers in George Kittle paving the way for him. The 49ers averaged 5.0 yards per carry whenever Kittle was on the field last season. And yet, somehow Coleman averaged only 4.0 yards per carry in 2019, despite all the advantages the 49ers provided him.
Fantasy Downside
Maybe Coleman never was 100% healthy (he injured his ankle during the season opener). Maybe he wasn't comfortable on a new team. Maybe he will improve this season.
2020 Bottom Line
As of today, however, Coleman is the No. 2 behind Raheem Mostert, who closed the door during Week 13 against the Ravens. After that game, Coleman never had more than five carries from Weeks 14-17. Then, when Mostert suffered a calf injury against the Vikings in the playoffs, Coleman looked like the player the Niners were hoping for when they signed him in free agency. Remember: Jerick McKinnon, who hopes to return from a knee injury this season, and Jeff Wilson both remain on the roster although Matt Breida was traded to the Dolphins.
Week 17 at Seattle Seahawks
Tevin Coleman saw 42% of the team’s offensive snaps last week, but he still had only five carries for 33 yards. He’s taken a backseat behind Raheem Mostert and with Matt Breida still around as well, it’s hard to trust Coleman to return to fantasy relevance in the final week of the season. The Seahawks have been about average against the run this year, but the matchup really doesn’t matter if Coleman can’t get touches. There’s no indication things will change this week, and fantasy owners should sit him or leave him on waivers.
Week 14 at New Orleans Saints
Tevin Coleman was held to just six yards on five carries last week against the Ravens while Raheem Mostert had 19 carries for 146 yards and a touchdown. While it’s likely the 49ers will run with the hot hand and Coleman could very well step up in any given game, the reduction in touches last week makes it hard to trust any of the 49er running backs. Plus, Matt Breida may be back in the lineup this week, further muddying the waters. Against the Saints – fifth in aFPA to opposing running backs this season – it might be best to sit Coleman and the rest of the San Francisco backfield until we get more clarity and a better matchup.
Week 13 at Baltimore Ravens
Tevin Coleman had a touchdown last week but he wound up with only 49 total yards on 13 touches, and averaged just 3.5 yards on 11 carries. Coleman is averaging just 3.9 yards per carry this season and has been largely ineffective outside of a monster performance against the Panthers in late October. He’s still averaging 14.9 total touches per game though, giving him a high floor each game.
This week, Coleman faces a Ravens defense that has been stellar for much of the season but actually ranks 18th in aFPA to opposing running backs. If the 49ers are going to have success against the Baltimore defense, they’ll likely need Coleman to be productive. With his touches and opportunity, he has RB2 upside in any given week, though we have him ranked on the lower end of that tier against the Ravens after they shut down the Rams on Monday night.
Week 12 vs. Green Bay Packers
Tevin Coleman has struggled the past three games after a huge outing against the Panthers when he scored four touchdowns. Since then, he’s gained a total of 77 yards on the ground and hasn’t found the end zone. However, he’s still active in the passing game, catching nine balls for another 93 yards during that stretch. That production helps compensate for a lack of yards on the ground, and he should improve with his workload. He’s averaging 15.1 touches per game, and that’s hard not to like.
The Packers rank 23rd in aFPA to opposing running backs, so there should be some upside for Coleman to get back on track this week. With Matt Breida likely still out, he should get another fairly full workload, giving him what should be a high floor in a pretty good matchup. We have him ranked in RB2 territory this week and he’s worth gambling on in most leagues, hoping he’ll get back on track after a few disappointing games.
Week 11 vs. Arizona Cardinals
After a monster game against Carolina, Tevin Coleman has been quiet in his last two outings, including just 40 yards on nine carries last week against the Seahawks. He added four catches and 32 receiving yards, but he’s failed to find the end zone since scoring four times against the Panthers. Coleman is averaging 15 touches in his seven games this season, so he remains a high-floor option due to workload.
This week, Coleman should be active in all leagues against the Cardinals. He was held to just 36 total yards against them two weeks ago, but Arizona has struggled defensively and he should be able to find some space this week. Coleman is ranked just outside our top 10 this week, with borderline RB1 upside in a great matchup.
Week 10 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Tevin Coleman came crashing back to earth last week after a huge game against the Panthers in Week 8. He had only 36 yards from scrimmage against what should’ve been an easy matchup in the Cardinals, despite getting 14 touches, including a pair of receptions. Coleman’s production is likely to be inconsistent as he shares time in the 49ers backfield, but he should still be considered a solid weekly starter since he’s averaging 15.5 touches in that role.
This week, Coleman has some upside against a Seahawks defense that ranks 18th in aFPA to opposing running backs, and gave up 82 total yards and a touchdown to Ronald Jones last week. Coleman should be considered a quality RB2 option in most leagues this week.
Week 9 at Arizona Cardinals
Tevin Coleman exploded last week in a blowout victory over the Panthers, rushing for 105 yards and three touchdowns on just 11 carries, while adding 13 yards and a fourth touchdown on a pair of receptions. The 49ers dominated the game from start to finish, and Coleman was a key cog in the offense, averaging an astounding 9.5 yards per carry on the day.
While it’s hard to imagine Coleman duplicating his incredible numbers from last week, he still stands to be effective in a great matchup. The Cardinals defense ranks 24th in aFPA to opposing running backs and if the 49ers get up early, they may just lean on the running game the rest of the way. He’s a must-start and a borderline RB1 in a great matchup this week.
Week 8 vs. Carolina Panthers
Tevin Coleman only had 62 rushing yards last week against Washington, but he carried the ball 20 times and was clearly the primary ball-carrier for the 49ers for the third consecutive game. The Washington game featured terrible field conditions, so it’s hard to hold much against him, though he’s averaged a mere 2.8 yards per carry over the last two weeks. Still, his workload gives him a high floor in most weeks.
This week, Coleman should put up low-end RB2 numbers against a Panthers defense that has been fantastic against the pass this season, but vulnerable against the run. Carolina is tied with the Cardinals, ranked 19th in the league in aFPA to opposing running backs, so Coleman should find some room to run in what could be a defensive affair.
Week 7 at Washington Redskins
After 16 carries in Week 5 after returning from injury, Tevin Coleman had 18 carries against the Rams last week in a big win for the 49ers. Coleman added two receptions and finished the day with 61 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. He was also on the field for 55% of the team’s offensive snaps, encouraging for a member of a crowded backfield.
Coleman should thrive this week against a Washington defense that ranks 28th in aFPA to opposing running backs this season. If the 49ers get off to an early lead, expect them to rely on Coleman to eat up clock and he could easily 20 total touches again. He’s a quality RB2 option in all league formats in what should be a good matchup.
