Week 2 vs. Buffalo Bills
Sterling Shepard caught six balls for 42 yards against the Cowboys last week. He was targeted seven times, which is a good sign, but suffered a concussion and his status next week is up in the air. Even if he does play, he’ll be facing a very good Bills defense that features one of the best young corners in the league in Tre’Davious White. Fantasy owners should keep him on the bench this week in a bad matchup coming off an injury.
Update: Looks like Shepard will be out Sunday due to the concussion. He was a bad option anyway, but be sure to get him out of your lineup.
Week 1 at Dallas Cowboys
Sterling Shepard has shown flashes of ability over the course of his first three years in the league, but he enters 2019 as the unquestioned WR1 for a team that desperately needs him to take a step forward. He caught 66 balls for 872 yards and four touchdowns last season, but the Giants will need him to do a lot more than that if he’s going to replace Odell Beckham Jr., who ate up 124 targets last year.
Shepard starts the season against a strong Cowboys defense that allowed the sixth-least fantasy points per game to opposing receivers, including only 12 touchdowns to the position. Still, Shepard has WR3 upside despite a tough matchup given the dearth of receiving options in New York. He struggled against Dallas last season, but should get double-digit targets, giving him value.
Fantasy Upside
Sterling Shepard had a modest season last year, catching 66 passes on 107 targets for 872 yards and four touchdowns. He also averaged 13.2 yards per catch, not bad for a slot receiver with that many catches, and more than Alshon Jeffery and Calvin Ridley. Shepard should benefit from the departure of Odell Beckham Jr., as he averaged 7.6 targets per game in 2017 when Beckham Jr. missed 12 games.
Fantasy Downside
Shepard hasn’t really lived up to expectations the past two seasons, despite getting significant opportunities to distinguish himself. Beckham Jr. has played in only half of his last 32 games and Shepard has still provided only modest production. After eight touchdowns his rookie season, he’s scored only six since, and the quarterback play isn’t likely to improve this year with Eli Manning back under center. Even if rookie first-round pick Daniel Jones takes over for Manning, there’s likely to be a learning curve. Shepard's injury in early camp may take time to heal, though he's unlikely to miss much time during the regular season.
2019 Bottom Line
For the price of an eighth-rounder, there should be a little more upside available than Shepard provides. His teammate Golden Tate is going a round later and should put up similar production. With a struggling offense and most of the fantasy hype going to Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram, Shepard seems like late-round value rather than mid-round production. His injury status should be monitored as well.
Week 17 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Sterling Shepard had a nice game last week against the Colts, catching six balls for 113 yards as Odell Beckham Jr. (OBJ) missed another game. It was Shepard’s second 100-yard game of the year and while he didn’t find the end zone, it was good to see him be productive after weeks of disappointing totals.
This week, with OBJ set to miss another game, Shepard has a good chance to replicate his totals from last week. He’s been targeted at least six times in each of his past five games and is the primary receiver with OBJ out. The Cowboys defense has been good this year, allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, but Shepard’s additional targets should make him a low-end WR2 option with upside in most leagues.
Week 16 at Indianapolis Colts
Sterling Shepard has had additional opportunities the past couple of weeks with Odell Beckham Jr. (OBJ) shelved. In that time, he’s been targeted 15 times, but has caught a mere four passes for 54 yards. While he did score a touchdown against Washington two weeks ago, those are abysmal numbers for a player getting WR1 targets.
Shepard will face a Colts defense this week that has allowed the fifth-least fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this year. They completely shut down the Cowboys offense last week, and it’ll be hard for Shepard to improve over his recent totals in a tough matchup. Fantasy owners should consider him a very risky, low-end WR2 if OBJ sits, and should probably look elsewhere if OBJ starts.
Week 15 vs. Tennessee Titans
Sterling Shepard led the team in targets with six last week while Odell Beckham Jr. (OBJ) was sidelined with an injury, but he only caught two balls for 17 yards. He did score a touchdown, which was encouraging, but the Giants have definitely become a running team behind their star rookie back Saquon Barkley.
OBJ is inactive again this week, so fantasy owners should consider Shepard a low-end WR2 option. While he’s struggled for much of the season, an increase in targets should give him additional value. The Titans allow the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this year, giving him some upside.
Week 14 at Washington Redskins
Sterling Shepard continued his run of disappointing performances last week against the Bears, catching four passes for a mere 28 yards. Shepard has failed to gain more than 37 yards in any of his past five games and has only found the end zone once during that span. The Giants offense seems unable to support more than one wide receiver anymore, and with Odell Beckham Jr. fifth in the league in targets, there’s no room for Shepard. He’s droppable in most formats.
Update:
With OBJ out this week, Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram both get a bump with additional targets available. Shepard is now a potential WR2 option for needy fantasy owners.
Week 13 vs. Chicago Bears
Outside of a short touchdown against the 49ers, Sterling Shepard hasn’t done much over his past four games, averaging only three catches and 25.5 receiving yard during that span. He had only four catches for 37 yards against the Eagles last week in what should’ve been a pretty good matchup, although his six targets were the most he’s had this month.
This week, Shepard faces a Bears defense that has been great all season, but has allowed some points to opposing wide receivers – 12th-most in the league. Still, Shepard has been so disappointing lately. He’s too risky to count on in most leagues, but has some WR3 upside in larger leagues if he can get another six targets this week.
Week 12 at Philadelphia Eagles
Sterling Shepard struggled last week in what should’ve been a great matchup, catching only two passes for 22 yards as the Giants used the ground game to edge out their third victory of the season. Shepard has struggled the past few weeks – save a short touchdown against the 49ers – and he stands to lose targets as Evan Engram gets re-assimilated into the offense.
This week, Shepard faces an Eagles defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season. Shepard has some upside, as the Eagles just gave up 10 catches, 157 yards and a touchdown to Tre’Quan Smith of the Saints last week, after focusing most of their secondary coverage on Michael Thomas. Shepard is risky, but he could be worth considering in large leagues as a WR3 option given the matchup.
Week 11 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sterling Shepard scored a touchdown last week against the 49ers, but he only gained nine yards on a pair of receptions and was targeted only three times. With the health of Evan Engram and the emergence of Saquon Barkley in the passing game, someone’s targets will suffer in any given week, and it’s unlikely to be star receiver Odell Beckham Jr. Still, Shepard has upside every week, and has shown the ability to produce in the right matchups.
This week should be the right matchup. The Buccaneers have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season, including 15 touchdowns to the position. Shepard may be the odd man out in the passing game with all the weapons, but that should still be enough to produce against the struggling Tampa Bay defense. He’s a borderline WR2 option this week.
