Week 15 vs. Cleveland Browns
Sterling Shepard caught three of five targets last week against the Cardinals for 35 yards. It was a disappointing output in a nice matchup, and the entire Giants offense struggled. Shepard had at least six catches in all but one game before combining for just four over his last two. While’s he’s still averaging 6.8 targets per game, it’s hard to trust him outside of very deep PPR formats with how bad the offense has been. Be wary.
Week 14 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Sterling Shepard had just one catch for 22 yards last week in a surprise victory over the Seahawks, despite a nice matchup. Still, he was targeted six times, and has at least six targets in all but one game this season. He’s typically a steady PPR option with 5.25 receptions per game.
Shepard has a nice matchup this week against the Cardinals, who rank 25th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. It’s hard to put much stock into any of the Giants’ wide receivers, even if Daniel Jones is back, so it’s risky to trust him. Still, he has deep-league value in PPR formats as a low-end WR3 due to his volume of targets.
Week 13 at Seattle Seahawks
Sterling Shepard had a modest 64 yards on seven catches last week against the Bengals. He was targeted eight times, and he has at least six catches in six of the seven games he’s been active this year. That gives him a high floor in PPR leagues.
Shepard should produce this week in a fantastic matchup. The Seahawks rank dead last in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. Although the Seattle defense is getting healthier and may improve down the stretch, expect Shepard to rack up his usual targets and to be a solid, low-end WR3 option, particularly in PPR formats.
Week 12 at Cincinnati Bengals
Sterling Shepard caught all six balls thrown his way against the Eagles before the bye last week. He wound up with just 47 yards, and he’s averaging just 8.7 yards per catch this season, but the volume has made him a safe, low-end option in PPR leagues. Shepard has at least six targets in all but one game this season and is averaging seven targets per game.
This week, Shepard faces a Bengals defense that ranks 31st in the league in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. With the volume he’s getting in a great matchup, Shepard should be considered a high-floor WR3 option, particularly in PPR formats.
Week 10 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sterling Shepard caught six of the eight balls thrown his way for just 39 yards last week against Washington, adding in 18 yards on one rush attempt. Shepard hasn’t put up big numbers, but he’s had at least eight targets in each of his past three games, and he seems to be the volume target in New York.
The Eagles rank 17th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers this season, so there’s some upside if the volume continues for Shepard. Betting on the Giants’ offense is far from safe in any format, but Shepard has a nice floor in PPR formats, since he’s caught at least six passes in four of the five games he played in this year.
Week 9 at Washington Football Team
Sterling Shepard returned to action two games ago and he has 14 receptions on 18 targets since. Last week, he caught eight of 10 targets for 74 yards against the Buccaneers. Shepard should continue to gobble up targets, making him a viable spot-starter in PPR formats for as long as he’s healthy.
This week, Shepard has a tough matchup against a surprisingly stingy Washington defense that ranks number one in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. Downgrade Shepard a little for the matchup, but if you have bye week or injury issues, he’s worth considering as a low-end WR3 with a high floor in PPR or half-PPR leagues.
Week 8 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sterling Shepard had a nice return from injury against the Eagles last week, catching six of the eight balls thrown his way for 59 yards and a touchdown. Shepard is usually the target-leader when active, but he’s had a hard time staying on the field throughout his career.
This week, expect heavy targets for Shepard against the Bucs. However, Tampa Bay ranks ninth in aFPA to opposing wide receivers and it won’t be easy for him to produce. Expect heavy targets, but risky production in a tough matchup, with fringe WR2/WR3 potential in PPR formats.
Week 2 at Chicago Bears
Sterling Shepard caught all six balls thrown his way against the Steelers on Monday night, but gained just 47 yards and took a backseat to Darius Slayton, who was targeted nine times and scored a pair of touchdowns. Shepard should still be considered a reasonable option in good matchups, particularly if Golden Tate continues to miss time, but it’s going to be hard to trust him on a week-to-week basis until we see more of this offense under new offensive coordinator Jason Garrett.
The Bears allowed a combined seven catches and 98 yards to the outside receivers for the Lions last week, so Shepard may struggle to produce more than he did against a tough Steelers defense in Week 1. Shepard should be considered no better than a low-end WR3 option in PPR formats at best this week.
Week 1 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Sterling Shepard struggled with injuries last season and was held to just 10 games, but he averaged 5.7 catches on 8.3 targets and 57.6 yards per game while he was healthy. He had only three touchdowns, and has only nine in the last three years since scoring eight as a rookie in 2016. Shepard has upside as the likely target-leader in this offense, but this is a tough matchup against the Steelers, who ranked seventh in aFPA to opposing wide receivers last season, and Darius Slayton and Golden Tate will continue to be active parts of the passing game as well. He’s worth rostering, but is likely a better bye-week filler and depth guy than weekly starter. Look elsewhere if you can.
Fantasy Upside
Sterling Shepard was limited to just 10 games last year due to injuries, but he had some productive outings when he was on the field. He scored three touchdowns and had 100-yard games against the Bucs and the Dolphins. Shepard has shown flashes of ability throughout his four-year career, albeit inconsistently. He also showed some range last season, lining up out wide on 54% of his offensive snaps for the first time in his career. Until last season, he’s been mostly a slot receiver. If Shepard can stay on the field, he should get plenty of targets as well. The Giants were ninth last season in passing attempts and don’t figure to be leading in many games again this season.
Fantasy Downside
Shepard’s main issue is injuries, and specifically concussions. He had two last year, within three weeks of each other, and that kind of regularity is concerning for long-term health. The Giants will need to be careful with him, making it risky to count on him for a full season. Shepard also hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire when given the opportunity to be the top option. He had ample opportunity to produce in 2018 with Odell Beckham Jr. sidelined, but he wound up with just 872 yards and four touchdowns on 107 targets that season. His career catch rate is just 65%. Shepard will have to be better if he’s going to be worth taking a risk on his health in most fantasy leagues.
2020 Bottom Line
Shepard is being drafted just ahead of his teammate Golden Tate in the early-11th round of 12-team leagues. While that’s not a lot of draft capital to invest in a player who has the potential to lead his team in targets, it’s hard to overlook the significant risks associated with him, particularly when you could grab someone like Tate, Jamison Crowder or Mike Williams at the same ADP. Shepard has upside, but is probably better off as the last receiver on your roster in most league formats, and is too risky to count on as even a fringe WR3.
