Week 2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Rex Burkhead is on the injury report with a concussion this week. His status may not be known until inactives come out Sunday. If he is active, he should be a reliable RB2, as the depth chart has thinned out to just James White, a still recovering Sony Michel, and Burkhead. His high usage last week was very encouraging and he's always a good bet to find the end zone—even against a Jaguars defense that surprisingly was not great against the run last season (19th in aFPA to RBs). They also got gashed by Saquon Barkley in Week 1. Monitor Burkhead's status, but if active, he has some upside in Week 2.
Week 1 vs. Houston Texans
According to ESPN's Mike Reiss, "Burkhead is cleared to play in the opener but expect him to be eased into the mix because there is an acclimation process that still needs to take place." However, even with just around 11 touches in our projections this week, Burkhead still checks in as an RB2 for Week 1, given his increased chances of scoring. There's some touchdown-or-bust risk here, but if you're going to to take that risk with an RB, it might as well be a Patriots RB.
Fantasy Upside
Burkhead is under contract with the Patriots for the next three seasons and should lead the Patriots in touches out of the gate with rookie Sony Michel undergoing a minor knee procedure that is keeping him out of the preseason. He also scored seven touchdowns in his six games after the bye last season, illustrating high red zone upside in the Patriots offense.
Fantasy Downside
The Patriots have been fickle in the past with their running back rotation. It's not out of the realm of possibility that Jeremy Hill could emerge as the goal-line back with Sony Michel injured to move Burkhead to the between-the-20s role in this offense, like Dion Lewis had last season. It's also possible that Michel, once healthy, could take a larger portion of the touches in the offense, given the first-round draft capital spent on him.
2018 Bottom Line
Burkhead is a strong RB2 value play in 2018. He proved to be reliable in this offense last season when given the opportunity in fantasy and his reasonable ADP means you could draft him a round early and still feel good about the value. This offense has ranked top-five in fantasy points from running backs over the past few seasons. The upside is there.
Super Bowl vs. Philadelphia Eagles
What matters in this different one-game format is not so much how many points we project each player for but how much each player costs per point. In FanDuel's half-point PPR format, here's how we value the running backs in terms of dollar/FanDuel point: Rex Burkhead>Jay Ajayi>Dion Lewis>LeGarrette Blount>Corey Clement>James Develin.
As for DraftKings' full PPR scoring, here's how we value the running backs in terms of dollar/DraftKings point: Jay Ajayi>Rex Burkhead>Dion Lewis>James White>LeGarrette Blount>Corey Clement>James Develin.
AFC Conference Championship vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
There is some mystery to how healthy Tom Brady is going into the conference championship game because of an apparent injury to his right hand. Reports out of New England range from Brady is okay to it will affect him slightly. Either way, running the ball is the best way to attack the Jaguars defense, as they rank just 24th in aFPA vs. RBs. Dion Lewis clearly will not get work near the goal line, and with Rex Burkhead back healthy this week, he is a better DFS value than Lewis due to his touchdown upside. He's worth the risk.
Divisional Round vs. Tennessee Titans
The Patriots have the highest implied team total as 14-point home favorites in Vegas this week, and that total is a fantasy juicy 31 points. This is also a pass funnel defense as the Titans run defense finished fourth in the NFL. However, Rex Burkhead (knee) was limited Wednesday and Thursday with reports indicating he was still favoring the injury. Monitor his status, but he feels far too risky to play this week. If active, he could take back his goal-line back role, which could be hugely valuable in DFS this week, given the very positive projected game script.
Week 15 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Despite the loss in Miami last week, the Patriots are still favored in Pittsburgh with the second-highest implied team total in Vegas this week at 28.25 points. Over the past four weeks, the Steelers have also allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the RB position, including 6 total touchdowns. Rex Burkhead didn't get much action last week in a very negative second-half game script, but he's still the goal-line back and getting enough work in the passing game to raise his floor each week. Burkhead is again an RB2 in Week 15.
Week 14 at Miami Dolphins
The Patriots have the highest implied team total for Week 14 with 29 points. Meanwhile, Rex Burkhead is the RB6 in PPR over the past four weeks, and the Dolphins have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points in that span. Overall, Miami is ranked just 17th in aFPA to RBs. Burkhead's usage near the goal line makes him even more valuable. Consider him no worse than a high-end RB2 in all formats for Week 14.
Week 13 at Buffalo Bills
The traditional Patriots backfield concerns have somewhat melted away with Mike Gillislee turning into a healthy scratch in recent weeks and James White getting no more than 5 touches each of the last three weeks. Meanwhile, the Bills have been horrendous against running backs, ranking 31st in aFPA against the position. The Patriots are favorites this week with the second-highest implied total. That's good news for the backfield. Rex Burkhead appears to be the goal-line back now, too. He's no worse than a FLEX play in Week 13.
Week 12 vs. Miami Dolphins
Patriots backfield touches over the past two games: Dion Lewis-28, Rex Burkhead-22, James White-10. The Dolphins are above-average in aFPA vs. RB rankings, but as a 17-point favorite with the highest implied total of 32 points, this is a good projected game script for Burkhead. Consider him an RB2 this week.
