Week 7 at New York Jets
Rex Burkhead missed the Patriots' Week 6 matchup against the Giants with a foot injury, and he's currently questionable for Week 7 against the Jets. He did practice on a limited basis on Thursday 10/17, but if he were to return from injury, he'd be no more than a low-floor, low-ceiling option as an RB3.
Week 6 vs New York Giants
Rex Burkhead was limited in practice on Tuesday, October 8th, and with a short week of practice before their Thursday night game, it seems unlikely that Burkhead will be active against the Giants.
Week 5 at Washington Redskins
Rex Burkhead played in the Patriots' Week 4 matchup with the Bills, despite being limited all week and ultimately a game-time decision. Burkhead saw just 18% of New England's offensive snaps, and his usage indicates he was clearly not 100%. Burkhead played 74% of the snaps the week prior, but that was due to James White missing the game for the birth of his son. Burkhead is certainly capable of starter-worthy performances, but they are exceedingly difficult to forecast.
Burkhead has been limited in practice so far this week, making him questionable for Week 5. If he does play, he'll share the backfield with both James White and Sony Michel, limiting his fantasy upside. Starting him will require monitoring beat reporting from New England up until the start of the game, and if he's active, he's best used as a low-floor RB3.
**UPDATE 10/5 @ 12:00pm: Rex Burkhead was listed as out today for this game, so make sure you replace him in your lineups!**
Week 4 at Buffalo Bills
Rex Burkhead has been and will continue to be a difficult running back to project on a week-to-week basis. The same could be said about all of New England's running backs, but Burkhead has both a limited historic sample size and a Week 3 that skews his total snap share due to a one-game absence from James White. The Patriots' leaned heavily on the run in their Week 2 matchup with Miami, and it resulted in Burkhead seeing just 24% of the offensive snaps, his lowest volume of the year.
As long as he remains healthy, Burkhead will retain a role in the New England backfield, as his versatility is valuable to the Patriots. He's a strong pass-blocker, and his usage as one opens up short passes into open space after presenting as a blocker or chip-blocking. Buffalo's struggles against the run through three games make this Week 3 matchup a run-heavy affair for the Patriots, and Burkhead's best chances for fantasy-viable volume is in games in which the Patriots establish a large and early lead, which tend to come from pass-heavy game scripts. Burkhead is a low-end RB3 for Week 3.
Week 3 vs New York Jets
Rex Burkhead is healthy, Rex Burkhead is efficient, and Rex Burkhead has forced his way into a Patriots running back corps that's become a three-headed monster. Snap distribution has varied through two games, but overall, Burkhead has seen 35% of Patriots offensive snaps, Michel 41%, and White 39%.
Burkhead's versatility is his most valuable asset, as he's nearly as efficient a rusher as he is a receiver, and his 1.12 fantasy points per touch are tied for 20th among all running backs. With a projected game script that should result in both a heavy reliance on the run as well as lower aDOT passes, Burkhead could see an increased role. He's a decent bet as an RB3 or FLEX play on Sunday.
Week 2 at Miami Dolphins
Rex Burkhead surprised in Week 1, more with his usage by the Patriots than his efficiency with his opportunity, which he's displayed before. Burkhead was the fantasy RB20 on eight rushing attempts and eight targets for 85 total yards, despite facing a Pittsburgh defense that was adept at defending running backs in both roles in 2018.
Burkhead is very difficult to project for the Patriots' Week 2 matchup with the Dolphins. It seems unlikely that he will receive more opportunity than running mate Sony Michel again, but if any team were to throw such a curveball to fantasy owners, the Patriots are among the most likely. Burkhead projects as more of an RB4 in Week 2, with potentially increased value if the Patriots match the lopsided game script that Vegas projects. He should be an ideal cheap high-ceiling option in DFS GPP contests as a result.
Week 1 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Rex Burkhead had real-life value to the Patriots in 2018 as a dual-threat running back, as his presence in the backfield didn't tip the hand of the New England offense. Injuries cost him half of last season, and he was rarely a viable fantasy option when he did play. With an expected increase in Sony Michel's usage as a receiver, and New England's decision to draft Damien Harris in the third round of the 2019 draft, there was speculation that Burkhead might not make the final roster. Burkhead's inclusion on the final 53 gives him potential handcuff value if one of the running backs ahead of him on the depth chart is injured, but he's not a viable play in Week 1.
Fantasy Upside
Rex Burkhead returned from an early-season injury for the final five weeks of the regular season, and defined his role as a running and receiving option that wouldn't tip the hand of the offense before the snap. He caught 11 of his 14 targets in that timeframe for 100 yards and a touchdown, to go along with 110 rushing yards on 33 attempts.
Fantasy Downside
Burkhead's neck injury that cost him half the season was preceded by a knee injury in the preseason and a concussion in Week 1. If he can manage to stay healthy, he still faces competition from rookie third-round pick Damien Harris. If Harris outperforms Burkhead in the preseason, it would potentially limit Burkhead to purely a depth option and special teams contributor, or even put his roster spot in jeopardy.
2019 Bottom Line
Burkhead is currently the cheapest member of the Patriots' backfield by ADP, and he's established ability as both a runner and a receiver in the New England offense. Our projections make him the RB50, while his ADP makes him the RB60. He is often available as a final-round pick in bestball drafts or deeper redraft leagues, and as a late dart-throw, one could do far worse. New England returns an excellent run-blocking offensive line, and any combination of injury or rookie underperformance could result in opportunity for Burkhead if he can avoid injury himself.
Week 14 at Miami Dolphins
The New England Patriots head to Miami with a top five implied team total, facing a defense that ranks just 29th in total defense this season. New England struggled at Hard Rock Stadium surprisingly, but this Dolphins defensive unit doesn't have the pieces it had last year. Miami ranks just 29th in aFPA to RBs. Sony Michel continues to dominate early-down and goalline snaps in this backfield and already had a successful day against the Dolphins earlier this year. Even with Rex Burkhead mixing in, there's still room for James White, evidenced by White's game against this team earlier this season. That doesn't leave enough volume for Burkhead in Week 14.
Week 3 at Detroit Lions
The Patriots have the second-highest implied team total of 30 points for Week 3. The Lions are also 28th in PPR points allowed to RBs this season after getting gashed by Matt Breida last week and Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell in Week 1. Rex Burkhead was both limited in practice last week with a concussion and limited in the game as New England's game plan for RB usage against Jacksonville largely matched its AFC Championship game blueprint. That meant far less work for Burkhead than James White. That could change this week, with far more positive game script likely. It's risky, but Burkhead should have flex appeal again this week in 12-team leagues or larger.
