Week 2 at New Orleans Saints
The Patriots have the highest implied total in Vegas for Week 2, despite playing on the road, with an absurd implied total of 31 points. You're going to want to start most Patriots in Week 2. That includes Gillislee who converted three short-yardage touchdowns in Week 1. James White did play 43 snaps to Gillislee's 24, but the Patriots were behind much of the second half. In what is projected to be a much more positive game script, Gillislee is shaping up to be a safe RB2 this week.
Week 1 vs. Chiefs
Mike Gillislee is the likely goal-line back for the Patriots offense, a role that has generated 36 touchdowns over the past three years among Pats running backs with similar roles. We may not know yet going into Week 1 how many total touches to expect from Gillislee, but that valuable role alone puts him in the RB2/FLEX conversation immediately. However, expectations for a high Week 1 ceiling should be kept in check against a Chiefs defense that was top-10 last year in our aFPA vs. RBs.
Fantasy Upside
The Patriots not only signed Mike Gillislee as a restricted free agent from Buffalo, but because he was not an unrestricted free agent, New England had to send a draft pick to the Bills. Bill Belichick really isn't in the business of giving up draft picks for players he does not like. That means Gillislee is the favorite to inherit the team's early-down/goal-line back role that produced a league-high 18 rushing touchdowns from the now departed LeGarrette Blount. Blount finished as a top-10 PPR RB in this offense a year ago, and Gillislee was No. 1 in the NFL in TD rate a year ago at 8.2 percent.
Fantasy Downside
#Belitricks. You just never know for sure who will start at RB or if the Patriots will lean more on the passing down back week-to-week. So drafting Gillislee (whose ADP has risen into the fifth/sixth round in early August) still requires a leap of faith. Per 4for4's Chris Raybon, it should also be noted Blount's 17.6 rushes per game were the most by a Patriots power back since Steven Ridley's 18.1 in 2012. So some regression in volume could be in order for Gillislee in this role.
2017 Bottom Line
Blount was eighth in standard fantasy points per week in 2017 and 13th in PPR. Considering Gillislee is being drafted as a low-end RB2 or flex player, the reward outweighs the risk. Gillislee has RB1 upside at a reasonable ADP.
Week 16 vs Miami
Mike Gillislee scored his third touchdown in the last three games and appears to have that role now for Buffalo, which lends him some fantasy value. He did only get 9 touches so there is probably not enough there to start him, but he should be on your radar considering the scoring in recent games.
Week 15 vs Cleveland
After scoring two touchdowns the previous week, Mike Gillislee had only two carries against Pittsburgh. The problem with him from a fantasy standpoint is you might have to depend him to score TDs to have value and that is always hit or miss.
The matchup is great this week, as the Browns are 31st in aFPA to running backs. But it would probably be best to keep Gillislee on the bench this week, as he just outside the starting flex or RB3s for Week 15.
Week 14 vs Pittsburgh
It wasn't even known if Mike Gillislee would play last Sunday, but he ended up making a major fantasy impact. He carried the ball just eight times for 49 yards, but cashed in with two rushing touchdowns. The scores alone make Gillislee fantasy relevant, but will his role be the goal line back moving forward?
The Bills running backs have a good matchup this week against the Steelers, who are 25th in aFPA to the position. However, the amount of touches Gillislee had is an issue. Yes, touchdowns are great, but it's hard to start a back based on the fact he might score touchdowns. For that reason, we recommend Gillislee stay on the bench for Week 14.
Week 9 at Seattle
Mike Gillislee had his best game of the season with 12 carries for 85 yards and a touchdown last week. Keep an eye on the injury report to see if LeSean McCoy can go. If he can't, Gillislee will be the featured back and should get anywhere from 10 to 15 touches. However, if McCoy does play, Gillislee loses almost all his fantasy value.
For now, we will assume he is playing and it won't be easy on the road in Seattle. The Seahawks are No. 1 in aFPA to running backs and are outstanding at home. Gillislee still rates a low-end RB 2 for Week 9 as he still will get touches, but don't expect numbers like last week.
Week 8 vs. New England
LeSean McCoy surprised everyone last week by playing, but it might have been a mistake as he had to leave in the second half with an aggravated hamstring injury. Since McCoy still was in the linuep, Mike Gillislee's impact was limited. It doesn't appear the Bills will try to push McCoy in the lineup again, so Gillislee should benefit this week.
The Patriots have been very good against the run ranked fourth in aFPA to running backs. However, Gillislee should get enough touches to still pile up some fantasy points.
Start Gillslee as a low-end RB2 for Buffalo, as long as Shady doesn't make another surprising start.
Week 7 at Miami
With LeSean McCoy out, Mike Gillislee will get the start for Buffalo. He has shown some positives in his limited action this season, but the biggest question is how will Buffalo use him? McCoy had been the focus of the running game and a weapon in the passing game. Will Gillislee get 20 touches? There is a very good chance he will.
Miami is sixth in aFPA to running backs, so the matchup favors the defense, but the touches that Gillislee will get gives him high value for Week 7. Start Gillislee as a high-end RB2 for Week 7.
Fantasy Upside
Mike Gillislee was able to get some playing time in his first season with Buffalo due to injuries on the running back depth chart. He showed enough to remain in the Bills plan and with Karlos Williams suspended for four games, he moves in to LeSean McCoy's backup role to start the 2016 season. He did average 5.7 yards per carry.
Fantasy Downside
Most likely when Williams returns Week 5,Gillislee's role will be diminshed so his draft value is for four games. It's potluck after that.
2016 Bottom Line
Gillislee has some value for those first four games, but after that, it will probably be Karlos Williams as the backup again. Drafting Gillislee, but having him ready off the waiver wire is a good idea as he has some value in deep leagues for the first four games.
