Fantasy Upside
Michael Thomas finally looks healthy again. That in itself is an upside. If he can stay healthy, Thomas has a chance to be a nice PPR receiver again, like the old days. Thomas is still a talented receiver and also doesn't have to worry about being the focal point of defenses. That will be Chris Olave. He certainly won't have 150 targets, but 75 is definitely realistic.
Fantasy Downside
Will he stay healthy? That's the biggest question. We're talking about a player that played three games last season, missed the entire 2021 season and played only seven games in 2020. His last full season was 2019, which feels like it was forever ago. Chris Olave is also a star in the making and will command most of the targets from Derek Carr. Rashid Shaheed is an up-and-coming receiver in his own right, so Thomas will have to share the wealth a bit.
2023 Bottom Line
Thomas is certainly worth the roll of the dice based on his current ADP. He's barely cracking the top 50 WRs being drafted on Underdog. Even half a season of Thomas should help him outproduce that spot. Closer to a full season and Thomas could be one of the steals of drafts. If he's still on the board getting into the double-digit rounds, take him as an excellent lottery ticket option.
Week 3 at Carolina Panthers
Michael Thomas has returned to being a reliable fantasy option again. At least five catches, 50 yards, and a touchdown in both games so far, with 17 total targets and averaging 20 fantasy points. Jameis Winston is going to look for Thomas. Given his usage and opportunities, Thomas looks to be back as a weekly WR2. He has a decent matchup this week against the Panthers, who are middle of the road in DVOA against the pass.
Week 2 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It was definitely nice to see Michael Thomas back in action after missing all of last season due to injury and he was a key piece in New Orleans' comeback victory over the Falcons. He caught both touchdown passes in the fourth quarter as the Saints rallied from down 16. He was second on the team with eight targets (Jarvis Landry had 9). Jameis Winston certainly trusts Thomas plenty. He's nowhere near the PPR monster he once was, but he is going to catch a good amount of passes, putting him solidly in flex/low-end WR2 territory even in a tough matchup against the Buccaneers.
Week 1 at Atlanta Falcons
Michael Thomas is still a bit banged up, but all signs point to him playing his first game in about a year and a half after he missed all of 2021 due to injury. It's possible he may not be the PPR monster he once was, but if he's in the lineup, Jameis Winston will look his way. Check the Sunday inactives, but if Thomas goes, you should consider him for your flex spot against the Falcons. By the way, in his two games against the Falcons in 2020, he broke 100 yards both times.
2022 Fantasy Upside
Michael Thomas has reportedly been doing well in his recovery from the ankle injury that wiped out his 2021 season. In three seasons from 2017-19, where Thomas played all 16 games, he caught over 100 passes with at least 1,200 receiving yards, including his 149-1725-9 line in 2019. A healthy Thomas is a PPR machine.
2022 Fantasy Downside
But how healthy will Thomas really be? And how long will it take him to get back to game speed? His last game was Week 14 of 2020. And he only played seven games in 2020. It’s fair to wonder if he’ll play all 17 games. There's also an unknown with the Saints' offense, as the last time Thomas was a prominent fixture in the lineup, Drew Brees and Sean Payton were still around.
2022 Bottom Line
Thomas is still 29 years old, so he’s certainly not over the hill by any means. And he has plenty of help to take some pressure off him with the arrivals of Jarvis Landry and Chris Olave. We currently have him as a WR3 with plenty of upside, as long as that ankle (and the rest of his body) stays well.
Fantasy Upside
Even with a new quarterback under center, Michael Thomas should still see a ton of targets as he gets acquainted with a new quarterback. He even managed 100 receiving yards in two of the four games Taysom Hill started in 2020, so he should still see production in the new-look Saints offense. When he's on the field that is.
Fantasy Downside
The being on the field note is now significant as news just recently came out that Thomas underwent ankle surgery in June to help with the issues he was dealing with in 2020. Because of the surgery, Thomas may be out until October. The Saints' bye is in Week 6, so it's possible we may not see Thomas until Week 7. There is also a definite concern of injury even after Thomas returns to the lineup.
2021 Bottom Line
Thomas was potentially a borderline WR1 going into the season. After the injury news, we have him ranked as WR73. Proceed with caution on Thomas if you are willing to roll the dice on him.
Week 15 vs Chiefs
Michael Thomas is getting the catches, he's just missing the touchdowns. He has 17 catches in the last two games and at least 80 yards in three of the last four games. Now he's looking for that elusive touchdown in 2020. What better time than against the defending Super Bowl champions?
Week 14 vs Eagles
At least Taysom Hill knows to throw to Michael Thomas. In two of the last three weeks (both Atlanta games), Thomas saw at least 11 targets, had nine catches and topped 100 yards. This week, Thomas faces the Eagles and likely Darius Slay, who has struggled this season and got torched by Davante Adams last week. It should be a very interesting matchup. Thomas checks in at No. 13 in half-PPR this week.
Week 13 vs Saints
The Saints' passing game was almost non-existent last week against the Broncos. So we can almost cross off last week's performance. But in a way, we can't, because this is almost what the Saints' offense is with Hill at quarterback. Thomas still sits as a WR2 for this week but his upside is capped a bit with Hill.
Week 12 vs Broncos
Michael Thomas looks pretty much all the way back. Week 11 was his first double-digit target game (12). In fact, Thomas has more targets than every other Saints player combined last week. Taysom Hill has quickly connected with Thomas and now Thomas is back among some of the top options, coming in at No. 13 this week in half-PPR.
