Wild Card Round at Houston
Michael Crabtree had five catches for 47 yards on eight targets in a 24-6 loss against the Broncos in Week 17. Crabtree has a top-20 target share in the league this year and is second in contested catch rate – 85.7 percent on 14 targets. He is averaging nearly ten targets per game over his last six and has a lot of TD equity on a weekly basis. On a team that may struggle to score, Crabtree is likely the strongest bet to get in the end zone as he has high-end touchdown equity week-to-week even with yet another downgrade at quarterback. However, it’s a very poor matchup against the Texans in regards WR aFPA.
Week 17 at Denver
Michael Crabtree had seven catches for 90 yards on ten targets in a 33-25 win against the Colts in Week 16. Crabtree has a top-20 target share in the league this year and is second in contested catch rate – 85.7 percent on 14 targets. His target share of 26.09 percent has dwarfed Amari Cooper’s 16.67 percent over the past four games. You know what you are getting from Crabtree at this point and he has high-end touchdown equity week-to-week. It’s a poor matchup against the Broncos in regards to WR aFPA, and Crabtree will be a mid-range WR2 in Week 17.
Week 16 vs. Indianapolis
Michael Crabtree had six catches for 60 yards and a touchdown on eight targets in a 19-16 win against the Chargers in Week 15. Crabtree he has a top-20 target share in the league this year and is second in contested catch rate (85.7 percent on 14 targets). His target share of 27.08 percent has dwarfed Amari Cooper’s 16.67 percent over the past four games. You know what you are getting from Crabtree at this point and he has high-end touchdown equity from week-to-week. It’s a slightly above average matchup against the Colts in regards WR aFPA, but Crabtree will be a mid-ranged WR1 in Week 16.
Week 15 at San Diego
Michael Crabtree had four catches for 21 yards on seven targets in a 21-13 loss against the Chiefs in Week 14. Crabtree was also limited in practice Wednesday and is battling an injury of his own, so be sure and keep an eye on his status (along with Amari Cooper’s) as the week goes on. Health aside, he has a top-20 target share in the league this year and is second in contested catch rate – 84.6 percent on 13 targets. You know what you are getting from Crabtree at this point and he has high-end touchdown equity every week. Crabtree is a low-end WR1 against the Chargers, who grade out as a below-average matchup in regards to WR aFPA.
Week 14 at Kansas City
Michael Crabtree is coming off another nice performance and stat line of 7-74-1 on 11 targets in a 38-24 win over the Bills in Week 13. Crabtree has a top-20 target share this year and is first in contested catch rate – 84.6 percent on 13 targets. You know what you are getting from Crabtree at this point and he has high-end touchdown equity from week-to-week. In a high-end matchup against the Chiefs in regards to WR aFPA, Crabtree is a low-end WR1 in Week 14.
Week 13 vs. Buffalo
Crabtree is coming off of a nice performance and stat line of 8-110-0 on 13 targets in a 35-32 win over the Panthers in Week 12. Crabtree has a top-12 target market share (26.92) over his last four games. In an above-average matchup against the Bills in regards to WR aFPA, Crabtree is a mid-range WR2 in Week 13.
Week 12 at Carolina
Crabtree is coming off of a tough three-catch, five-yard performance with a few egregious drops in a 27-20 win over the Texans on Monday Night Football. That said, Crabtree is still top-25 in target market share (23.2) and he gets an above average matchup against the Panthers in regards to WR aFPA. Cooper is a high-end WR2 in Week 12.
Week 11 vs. Houston
Crabtree is coming off a 2-27 line on six targets in a 30-20 win over the Broncos before their Week 10 bye. No one in this passing game is a great play by any means, but Crabtree is 15th in the league in target share of Air Yards (35.11 percent) and gets a much better matchup than Cooper. Crabtree will feast off of Jonathan Joseph in this one and is a mid-range WR2 against a team that is one of the least favorable in the league in WR aFPA.
Week 9 vs. Denver
Crabtree is coming off a 8-108-0 line on 16 targets in a 30-25 overtime win against the Bucs in Week 8. He is 18th in the league in target share of Air Yards (32.36 percent), ninth in targets (9.4 per game) and eight in red zone receptions (six). Crabtree has a tough matchup this week, as the Broncos have been great against WR2s this year. Crabtree is a high-end WR3 in Week 9.
Week 8 at Tampa Bay
Crabtree is coming off a 8-96-1 line on 11 targets in a 33-16 win against the Jaguars in Week 7. In a career resurgence, Crabtree finished 11th in the NFL in total targets (146), 18th in target share (24.3%) and 11th in total touchdowns (nine) in 2015. Crabtree also led the team in red zone targets (13). This week, he is in a great spot as a guy who scores touchdowns (leading the league with six) against the defense that has allowed the third-most touchdowns per game (1.5) to wide receivers this year and also defends WR1s much tougher. In an above average matchup against the Bills, Crabtree is a low-end WR1 in Week 8.
