Week 3 vs. Denver Broncos
Michael Crabtree only caught five balls for 56 yards last week against the Bengals as quarterback Joe Flacco spread the wealth around the receiving corps. Seven different players were targeted at least four times. Crabtree did tie with John Brown for the team lead with 10 targets, and he seemed to be the primary option on intermediate routes, with Brown getting targeted deep on multiple occasions.
This week, Crabtree will likely continue to get consistent targets, but against a tough Broncos secondary that still features Chris Harris and Bradley Roby at the cornerback positions, it’s hard to bank on him in any league formats. Sit him for this week and keep him as a viable long-term depth option moving forward.
Week 2 at Cincinnati Bengals
In a bad-weather blowout last week over the Bills, Michael Crabtree caught only three passes for 38 yards, but he scored a touchdown. The Ravens spread the ball around fairly evenly, with Crabtree and Willie Snead each getting six targets and John Brown getting four. Expect that to continue, but for Crabtree to remain the best red zone threat with his physical style of play.
Against the Bengals this week, Crabtree should be more engaged throughout the entire game, as another blowout is less likely. T.Y. Hilton and Ryan Grant combined for 13 catches against Cincinnati last week. Crabtree should continue to be targeted heavily. He’s a low-end WR2 in most formats, especially leagues that prioritize touchdowns.
Week 1 vs. Buffalo Bills
After 1,003 yards in 2016, Michael Crabtree gained only 618 yards last year for a struggling Raiders offense. Crabtree was still productive in spurts, though, and showed a propensity to find the end zone, scoring 25 touchdowns in three years in Oakland. The Ravens are looking for someone to emerge as their top receiver and 92 targets to the primary receiver position in Baltimore were vacated by Mike Wallace, who signed with the Eagles in the offseason.
Crabtree may have his hands full to start the season against emerging cornerback Tre’Davious White. However, the number of targets he’s likely to get should make him a high-floor option every week this season with borderline WR2/WR3 potential.
Fantasy Upside
Michael Crabtree only caught 58 passes for 618 yards last season with the Raiders, but he still caught eight touchdowns. And he’s only a year removed from a 1,003-yard season. Crabtree will step into the No. 1 WR role for the Ravens this year, a team that was 11th in pass attempts and ninth in completion percentage in 2017. Crabtree is more talented than the injury-plagued and inconsistent receiving corps from a year ago, giving him considerable upside in a new uniform.
Fantasy Downside
Crabtree will turn 31 in September and he only has two 1,000-plus-yard seasons over his entire career. The Ravens have traditionally been hard to trust for consistent fantasy production through the air, and with Joe Flacco still under center, it’s hard to imagine a dramatic change. Crabtree was healthy from 2014-2016, but he missed two games last season and suffered injuries early in his career.
2018 Bottom Line
Crabtree should be a nice low-end WR2 in most fantasy leagues this year. He’s more talented than Mike Wallace at this stage of their careers, and Wallace saw 92 targets for the Ravens last year in an uneven season. Crabtree’s ability to produce in the red zone gives him added value, and he should be worth his seventh-round price tag in most leagues.
Week 17 at Los Angeles Chargers
Oakland ends its season in Los Angeles, facing a Chargers defense revved up to try and make the postseason. That's not a good combination for Michael Crabtree, facing a motivated Chargers defense ranked second in aFPA to WRs. Consider him a FLEX option with a low floor with Amari Cooper back healthy for this offense.
Week 16 at Philadelphia Eagles
The Raiders go cross-country for a Christmas night battle with the Eagles. Amari Cooper may be back this week, but Crabtree should still see double-digit targets in a machup that should produce negative game script. The Eagles are only around league average in aFPA against WRs. Consider Crabtree a WR2, at worst, for Week 16.
Week 15 vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Raiders face the Cowboys in a must-win game for their playoff hopes. Oakland has an implied team total in Vegas below the top half of teams for Week 15. However, Amari Cooper is out again this week, which meant 13 targets in this same situation for Michael Crabtree last week. With that kind of volume, Crabtree is no worse than a WR2 this week against a very beatable Dallas secondary (25th in aFPA vs. WRs).
Week 14 at Kansas City Chiefs
Do you like targets? Well, Amari Cooper is likely out this week, and Michael Crabtree is back from suspension against the No. 31 ranked defense in aFPA versus WRs. How do you like them targets? The Chiefs-Raiders game also has the second-highest over/under in Vegas for Week 14. All signs point to a heavy workload for Crabtree, who also won't have to face CB Marcus Peters (team suspension). He's no worse than a top-15 play this week.
Week 12 vs. Denver Broncos
The Broncos are fourth in fantasy points allowed to receivers this season at just 26.1 per game; however, that number has ballooned to 32 fantasy points per game over the past three games. Denver is still second in our aFPA vs. WR rankings, but they have been vulnerable of late. Crabtree has struggled against the Broncos, averaging just 31 yards without a score in his last three games versus Denver. All of this adds up to Crabtree being a risky FLEX option/low-WR2 in deeper leagues.
Week 11 vs. New England Patriots (game in Mexico City)
Michael Crabtree has been out-targeted by Amari Cooper 38 to 21 over the past three games, which is concerning, but the Week 11 matchup in Mexico is too good to ignore. The Patriots are just 29th in our aFPA vs. WR rankings and, overall, have allowed the third-most PPR points to the position. Crabtree is a solid start this week due to the matchup and his red zone usage.
