Week 5 vs. Cleveland Browns
Matt Breida has yet to find the end zone this season, but he’s averaging 5.5 yards on 41 carries through three games. Against the Steelers before the bye last week, Breida finished with 88 yards on 14 carries and two receptions, after gaining for 132 yards the week before. Breida’s value should remain fairly high even if Tevin Coleman returns to the lineup soon, as it appears Kyle Shanahan wants to have a committee approach regardless of who’s healthy. Breida’s average of 14.7 touches per game likely won’t increase much as the season goes on, but it looks like it won’t go down much either. He’s a key part of the 49ers offense.
This week, Breida faces a Browns defense that ranks 12th in aFPA to opposing running backs this season but allowed 5.35 yards per carry to Ravens running backs a week ago. Breida is in a timeshare but he has big-play ability and should get enough touches to put up decent fantasy points. We have him ranked in RB3 or low-end flex territory in most leagues.
Week 3 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Matt Breida had 12 carries for 121 yards against the Bengals last week and added an 11-yard reception. He had some ankle-breaking moves in a 34-yard scamper, leaving defenders in his wake. Breida has talent, but has struggled to stay on the field over the course of his short career. While he’s healthy though, he should be considered a steady option with RB2 upside in most leagues.
This week, Breida faces a Steelers defense that held Patriots running backs to a mere 3.1 yards per carry in Week 1, but then gave up 4.8 against the Seahawks’ backfield. The truth probably lies somewhere in between, and Breida should find some room to run. The 49ers will continue to split his workload with Raheem Mostert, but if he hits his 14-touch average through two games, he’ll be worth considering as a low-end RB2.
Week 2 at Cincinnati Bengals
Matt Breida shared time as expected in the season-opener, but the 49ers ran the ball 30 times, so he wound up with 15 carries. He was only targeted once in the passing game, which is concerning, but his status as the starter in the backfield and his touches are encouraging for fantasy owners looking for production long-term from him. With Tevin Coleman injured, Breida could benefit from additional work, although the 49ers seem content allowing Raheem Mostert to take on the complementary role. He had nine carries after Coleman went down.
This should be a good matchup for Breida. The Bengals allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game last season and they gave up two touchdowns – including one receiving – to Chris Carson in Week 1. Expect the team to use Breida extensively and for him to put up borderline RB2 numbers. Start him.
Week 1 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Matt Breida was hobbled for much of last year but was productive while in the lineup. He averaged 5.3 yards on 153 carries, caught 27 balls, and wound up with a total of 1,075 yards from scrimmage to go with five touchdowns. Breida won’t be a feature back with Tevin Coleman in the fold, but that’s not really his game anyway. Head coach Kyle Shanahan has shown in the past what he can do with a two-back system, and Breida and Coleman look like they’ll keep each other fresh in a committee approach.
To start the season, Breida faces a Buccaneers defense that gave up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the running back position. Game script may not be on the Breida’s side if the Buccaneers get up early, but if the 49ers can keep it close, the opportunity is there for Breida to thrive. We have him as a borderline RB2/RB3 option this week and he’s a risk/reward start.
Fantasy Upside
With Jerick McKinnon sidelined by a torn ACL suffered last August, Matt Breida emerged as the top running back for San Francisco. As CBSSports.com notes, Breida scored at least 12 PPR points in seven of 14 games while handling the lead role.
Fantasy Downside
The 49ers head into training camp with five RBs on the roster and a decision to make on who will get the bulk of the time in the backfield. The team signed free agent Tevin Coleman to a two-year deal worth $8.5 million. The team also expects McKinnon to be ready for the start of the regular season, but they won't rush him back as he recovers from his ACL injury. Breida, Jeff Wilson and special teams standout Raheem Mostert round out the group which is not at a loss for speed. So, while Breida, who missed the bulk of the team's off-season program recovering from a torn pectoral muscle (that didn't require surgery), isn't automatically ruled out of the starting conversation here, the more likely outcome is that he plays a secondary or even tertiary role in this offense.
2019 Bottom Line
A three-man rotation makes it hard to predict or identify a true handcuff, but if injury or attrition strike, Breida proved last season he is more than capable of holding down the starting assignment.
Week 16 vs. Chicago Bears
Matt Breida ended up being active last week despite being limited most of the days prior. He wound up with 96 yards from scrimmage on 17 carries and five receptions. Breida has been a primary cog in the 49ers offense when he’s been active and healthy. He aggravated his ankle towards the end of the game last week, so fantasy owners should keep an eye on his status.
Should Breida be active, he’ll face a Bears defense that has allowed the third-least fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, including allowing only five rushing touchdowns all season. If Breida starts, his volume of work makes him a low-end RB2 in the right situations, but fantasy owners would probably be better off just avoiding the San Francisco running game this week.
Week 15 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Matt Breida has been nicked up lately, allowing Jeff Wilson to shine in his absence. Breida is iffy to play this week, but even if he does, fantasy owners should be hesitant with him if possible. You can run on Seattle, but Breida has often been rushed back into action only to suffer as a result this year. A wait-and-see approach would make the most sense with Breida, especially with playoffs and championships on the line.
Week 13 at Seattle Seahawks
Matt Breida was one of the few bright spots for the 49ers last week against the Buccaneers. He ran for 106 yards on 14 carries and added 34 yards on three receptions. Breida looks healthy and has at least 100 yards on the ground in two straight games. He also seems to be fully in control of the depth chart in the 49ers backfield, making it likely he finishes the season with consistent touches.
Against the Seahawks this week, Breida should be a solid fantasy option. Seattle is just below average against running backs this year, and they’ve allowed four receiving touchdowns and 63 receptions to the position. Breida should be able to make use of a full workload and put up solid RB2 numbers in all leagues.
Week 12 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Matt Breida had a great game against the Giants before the bye last week, gaining 101 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries and adding another 31 yards and a touchdown on three receptions. Breida is probably the second-most talented healthy player on the 49ers offense after George Kittle, and as long as he stays on the field, he should get a full workload each week.
Expect big things from Breida against the Buccaneers this week. Saquon Barkley just scored three touchdowns against Tampa Bay, and they’ve given up 17 touchdowns to the running back position so far this season. We have him as a strong RB2 option in all league formats.
Week 10 vs. New York Giants
Matt Breida struggled in limited action last week against the Raiders, rushing for only 44 yards on 12 carries. He also was only targeted once in the passing game, surprising considering the youth at the quarterback position. Breida is still the most reliable fantasy option in San Francisco not named George Kittle, so he has value in all league formats, assuming he can stay healthy.
This week, Breida will face a Giants defense that is tough to figure out. They’ve allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season, but they recently traded away arguably their best run stopper in Damon Harrison. Expect Breida to put up modest RB2 numbers in most leagues based solely on his likely workload, but he’s far from a sure thing.
