2016 Fantasy Outlook
Mariota got beaten up a little in his rookie season but managed to stay on the field long enough to throw for 2,800 yards and 19 scores and rush for another 252 yards and two scores. That's not bad considering the cast with which he was working. The trouble was that 14 of his TD passes came in four games. Like many rookies, he was up and down. The additions of DeMarco Murray and WR Rishard Matthews could help. And remember, Mariota is just 22. The offensive line, however, remains an issue. It's bad and Mariota could spend a lot of time running for his life again. He's going 21st among quarterbacks with an ADP of 162. He's not a bad backup option with the potential for some big games. But until he finds the consistency, he's not starting material.
Week 15 at New England
Mariota threw for 274 yards last week and caught a 41-yard touchdown pass at New York, but the Jets largely bottled up Tennessee's offense. Things won't be any easier this week at New England, which will get after the rookie. The Patriots have allowed three passing touchdowns in the past four games and has the 10th-rated fantasy defense against opposing quarterbacks. There are better options this week.
Week 14 at New York Jets
Mariota continued his strong rookie season last week by throwing for 268 yards and three scores and running nine times for 112 yards and another score. He's been especially proficient since Mike Mularkey took over as head coach, accounting for 12 TDs in five games. The Jets are 14th in the league in points allowed to opposing QBs, but Mariota's scrambling ability gives him a bit of an edge. He has at least five carries in three of the past four games. There are better options this week, but Mariota is a decent sleeper start.
Week 13 vs. Jacksonville
Mariota had 218 yards and three touchdowns passing last week but did throw two costly interceptions. The three TD passes gave him six in five home games compared to 10 on the road. Two weeks ago at Jacksonville, he failed to throw a TD pass but did rush for a score in a 19-13 loss. He threw for 231 yards in that game against a Jacksonville pass defense that ranks 20th against opposing fantasy QBs. Be careful of your expectations here.
Week 12 vs. Oakland
Mariota managed just 185 passing yards and added five carries for 29 yards and a touchdown last week at Jacksonville. But it wasn't quite the success he had been having on the road. He has just three touchdown passes in four home starts this season, so for whatever reason, he hasn't been as effective as he has been on the road. Oakland is 26th in points allowed to the QB position, so there is a solid chance Mariota builds on his home numbers. He's a decent sleeper option this week.
Week 10 at Jacksonville
Mariota had just 185 passing yards and failed to throw a TD pass last week. He did run five times for 24 yards, but that wasn't enough to salvage the day. He has, however, thrown 10 TD passes in his three road games this season and Jacksonville's pass defense has allowed 10 TD passes in its past four games after a decent start to the season. The Jags also have given up at least 272 passing yards in seven of nine games this season. Mariota could be primed for a decent game.
Week 10 vs. Carolina
Mariota returned with a bang last week against the Saints matching his season high with four TD passes while putting up a season-best 371 passing yards. He also scrambled once for five yards, so the knee is apparently OK. But that was against New Orleans. This week, he faces a Carolina defense that is allowing just 5.9 yards per pass play. The Panthers have given up 6 TD passes in their past six quarters, but much of that has come in the second half of those two games. This will be a tough task for Mariota to solve a solid pass defense.
Week 9 at New Orleans
Mariota is expected to be back this week after missing the past two games with a sprained knee, and he faces a New Orleans defense that is dead last in points allowed to quarterbacks -- including allowing 350 yards and 6 TD passes last week. He'll be limited in his mobility this week, however, and without top receiver Kendall Wright. Keep the expectations in check.
Week 8 at Houston
Mariota is practicing on a limited basis this week and there's no guarantee he'll be back after sitting out last week with a sprained knee. Keep an eye on the situation. Houston's pass defense is terrible. If Mariota can play, he could put up decent numbers.
Week 6 vs. Miami
That crash you heard last week was the Mariota train coming off the rails a bit. After throwing at least two TD passes in each of his first three games, Buffalo shut the rookie QB out and limited him to 187 passing yards. He did scramble a season-high five times for 47 yards, but it didn't match his previous production. The Dolphins have been middle of the pack in terms of pass defense and have given up seven passing touchdowns. Mariota should have some success given the Dolphins don't necessarily rush the passer well, but he's a middling fantasy start this week.
