Week 6 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Just 129 passing yards and an interception was not how you wanted to see Marcus Mariota follow up his best game of the season. But that's what you got against the Bills. Expecting him to be better than that against a Baltimore defense that has been one of the best in the league against opposing quarterbacks would be an extreme reach. Mariota shouldn't be anywhere near your lineup this week.
Week 5 at Buffalo Bills
Marcus Mariota threw for 344 yards and two scores and added 46 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries. His passing yards were the most he's had since his rookie season. Now, he gets a Buffalo defense that has given up at least 256 yards with eight touchdown passes this season. But let's see Mariota do it a little more consistently before we go throwing him into our lineup. There's a track record of more bad games than good ones.
Week 4 at Philadelphia Eagles
Marcus Mariota didn't start last week against Jacksonville but he entered the game after Blaine Gabbert exited it with a concussion. He finished with 100 yards passing and 51 yards rushing. He's still dealing with an elbow injury that is affecting the feeling he has in his fingers. That's not good, especially against a Philadelphia defense that just limited Andrew Luck to 164 passing yards and one touchdown. Mariota is not someone who should be in your lineup.
Week 3 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Marcus Mariota was held out of last week's game with an elbow injury, giving Blaine Gabbert a chance to start against Houston. There's a good chance Mariota is back in the saddle this week, though it will be against Jacksonville. Even if Mariota does play, he shouldn't be anywhere near your lineup.
Week 2 vs. Houston Texans
Marcus Mariota left last week's opener in Miami in the middle of the third quarter after completing just 9-of-16 passes for 103 yards with two interceptions. The excuse was an elbow injury, but it could have just as easily been ineffectiveness. Mariota will be back in the saddle this week and faces a Houston defense that allowed three TD passes and 277 yards through the air last week. Of course, that was to New England. This offense is not nearly that explosive and has injuries all over, most notably a season-ending injury to tight end Delanie Walker—Mariota's security blanket. He should not be in your lineup.
Week 1 at Miami Dolphins
The one game Marcus Mariota missed fully last season was against Miami, which didn't do an especially good job of pressuring the passer last season -- even with the now departed Ndamukong Suh. Mariota should have time to throw, and if the running game gets going, use play-action. Mariota is going to be looking to put a poor 2017 behind him and this would be a good game to start. He's a sneaky good start this week.
Fantasy Upside
The expected break out in his third year just didn't happen for Marcus Mariota, as he saw his TD production cut in half, going from 26 in 2016 to 13 in 2017. But much of that was because of inconsistencies in his receivers and an offensive philosophy that, quite frankly, didn't always seem to make a lot of sense. He still threw for 3,200 yards and rushed for another 312 with five touchdowns, so there's plenty to like with the young QB now that the offense should change to be built more around his skill set.
Fantasy Downside
Injuries always seem to crop up with Mariota. Last season, it was a hamstring injury that kept him sidelined for one game and hampered him in several others, limiting his running ability. He also saw his interceptions rise to a career-high 15 last season. He has yet to play a fully healthy season in three NFL campaigns. And the receiving corps is largely the same as it was last season, minus veteran Eric Decker gone.
2018 Bottom Line
Mariota won't be going nearly as high in drafts this year as he did in 2017, when he was coming off a 26-TD pass season. But he should be closer to that guy than the one who had just 13 TD passes last season. It will be interesting to see how new offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur incorporates Mariota's mobility into the offense. But with second-year targets Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith, and Taywan Taylor now all having a year's experience under their belts, they should be ready to contribute more. Mariota's ADP currently places him in Rounds 11-13, which offers good value as a backup with some upside, especially if he can shake the injury issues that have plagued him.
Divisional Round at New England Patriots
If you started Marcus Mariota last week, you not only got 205 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns out of him, you also got the rare quarterback touchdown catch from himself. Don't count on that again, but Mariota is going to have to throw the ball around a bit to keep the Titans in this if the Patriots post their normal kind of game. But New England's pass defense will be a tough matchup for him. There are far better QB options.
Wild Card Round at Kansas City Chiefs
Marcus Mariota might have the best matchup of the opening week of the playoffs versus the 23rd-ranked Kansas City pass defense, but can he take advantage of it? He had just five games this season with more than 250 passing yards and threw multiple TD passes just three times this season. None of those multiple TD-pass games came in a contest in which he topped 250 yards, making him one of the biggest fantasy busts of the season. Don't make the mistake of counting on him this week.
Week 17 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Marcus Mariota threw for 275 yards last week but failed to throw a touchdown pass for the sixth time this season. It's been a forgettable season for the supposed-breakout candidate and Week 17 figures to cap that off against the pass defense that has been the most stingy in the league this season. Mariota should not be in your lineup.
