Week 3 at Detroit Lions
Latavius Murray split work with Ty’Son Williams last week, rushing nine times for 36 yards and a touchdown. Fumble aside, Ty’Son seems to be the main back – not counting Lamar Jackson – in Baltimore, making Murray tough to trust. Game script may favor Murray this week in what should be a pretty good route for the Ravens, but he’s risky to bank on with a limited workload. Consider him a low-end flex option in deep, standard leagues, but should be on the bench in most formats.
Week 2 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Latavius Murray had 10 carries for 28 yards and a touchdown on Monday night against the Raiders. While he definitely has the potential and ability to produce in this offense, he wasn’t getting a lot of work early in the game and it’s going to be difficult to estimate how carries will shake out between him and Ty’Son Williams – not to mention Le’Veon Bell and Devonta Freeman.
The Chiefs gave up big numbers to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt last week and ranked 26th in aFPA to opposing running backs last year, giving Murray upside this week. We have him ranked well outside starting range and fantasy managers should wait and see if he can snag the job from Williams.
Fantasy Upside
Even in limited action in 2020, Latavius Murray averaged 4.5 yards per carry. And in the short time Alvin Kamara had to miss, Murray stepped up, including rushing for 124 yards and two touchdowns in Week 12 against the Broncos. And with the possibility of New Orleans becoming more run-oriented, Murray may see more work even with a healthy Kamara in the lineup. That alone makes him a flex option in fantasy.
Fantasy Downside
The downside would be New Orleans becoming more run-based and Kamara seeing more than 200 carries (Kamara had 187 carries in 2020). The more work Kamara gets, the less productive Murray can be in fantasy, which is why he would just be a flex for now.
2021 Bottom Line
You have a good sense of what you'll get from Murray. Likely around 10-12 carries per game. He has flex appeal and if Kamara does miss time, Murray is a borderline RB1. He may also see more work early on with Michael Thomas out until possibly October with an injury. Murray is still very cheap in drafts, going in the 12th-13th round in 12-team leagues.
Week 17 vs Panthers
Even Latavius Murray got in on the act, even if just in a minor role, against the Vikings, with almost 100 total yards. The theme this season turned out to be Murray played second fiddle to Kamara. And with New Orleans playing for something this week, don’t expect that trend to change in the regular-season finale.
Update: Murray is now all of a sudden a very solid play now that Kamara is out with COVID-19. Murray has shown to still be a productive player when given enough opportunities, which he will now have both on Sunday and likely in the Wild Card playoff as well. Consider Murray a flex, possibly even an RB2.
Update 2: Murray is now out, along with the other Saints' running backs, as they were deemed close contact with Alvin Kamara and will not play Sunday.
Week 16 vs Vikings
Even with the Vikings not being that bad of a matchup against the running back position, Latavius Murray hardly touches the football (18 total touches in the last three weeks) and just seems too much of a risk for the fantasy championship.
Week 15 vs Chiefs
With Alvin Kamara back in full gear, Latavius Murray is back to being a spell back. He saw just five touches against the Eagles and seven against the Falcons in the last two weeks. He comes in just inside our top 40 running backs and is a risky play this deep in the fantasy season.
Week 14 vs Eagles
With Alvin Kamara back to his old self, Murray went back to being the spell back, getting just five carries for only 17 yards. Murray is just inside the top 26 in half-PPR, putting him right on the RB3/Flex line but making him a risk that you might be too cautious to take to start the playoffs,
Week 13 vs Falcons
With Alvin Kamara banged up, the Saints leaned more on Murray against the Broncos and he took 19 carries for 124 yards and two touchdowns. The Saints are likely to keep rolling with Murray in an attempt to limit Kamara with his foot injury. Murray sits inside our top 30 half-PPR backs for Week 13.
Week 12 vs Broncos
Murray continues to log about the same number of rushing attempts as Alvin Kamara, and actually posted a season-high in total yards in Week 11 with 85. Murray's ceiling continues to be limited due to his limited snap counts, lack of scoring chances (no touchdowns since Week 4), and now the added rushing of Taysom Hill.
Week 11 vs Falcons
Murray totaled 57 yards last week, his most since posting 57 in Week 5. With Alvin Kamara banged up, could Murray see more work? He's been fairly neck and neck in terms of rushing attempts lately with Kamara, but it's the lack of passing targets that set him back in fantasy. That would change if Kamara can't go, so keep a close eye during the weekend on what Kamara's status is.
