Week 6 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Julio Jones was targeted nine times in the Falcons’ Week 5 loss to the Steelers, catching five passes for 62 yards. He was actually held off the stat sheet until the fourth quarter because quarterback Matt Ryan was constantly under siege by Pittsburgh’s pass rush. Ryan chose to check down to tight end Austin Hooper for much of the second half because Jones got involved in the fourth quarter. Predictably, Jones was held without a touchdown again but he has a great matchup versus Tampa Bay on Sunday so he should rebound. (The Bucs own fantasy’s No. 32 defense against opposing wide receivers.) Ranked as our WR1, make sure Jones is in your lineup for Sunday. Maybe he’ll score three touchdowns to help make up for the lack of scoring over the past year-and-a-half.
Week 5 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Julio Jones caught nine-of-12 targets for 173 yards in the Falcons’ Week 4 loss to the Bengals. He nearly scored a touchdown late in the fourth quarter but he would have needed to drag about three Cincinnati defenders with him into the end zone. That’s seemingly what it’ll take for Jones to score a touchdown, although fantasy owners can’t complain about the targets or yardage. Ranked as our WR3 for Week 5, make sure Jones is in your lineup for a potential shootout between the Falcons and Steelers in Pittsburgh.
Week 4 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Julio Jones caught five passes for 96 yards on six targets in the Falcons’ Week 3 loss to the Saints. He should have had a touchdown, but Matt Ryan underthrew Jones on a 58-yard pass in the fourth quarter. Rookie Calvin Ridley led Falcons receivers in targets with eight but that usually won’t be the case. Now that Atlanta has to out-pace its own banged-up defense every week, the Falcons will be in plenty more shootouts. Jones is our No. 4 ranked WR for Week 4 and is a must-start against the visiting Bengals on Sunday.
Week 3 vs. New Orleans Saints
Julio Jones turned nine targets into five catches and 64 yards in the Falcons’ Week 2 win over the Panthers. It was a quiet fantasy day for Jones but he did make a couple of highlight reel catches in the crucial, early-season win for Atlanta. The frustrating part for fantasy owners is that Matt Ryan’s two touchdowns went to rookie Calvin Ridley and tight end Austin Hooper, respectively, but then again, owners are used to Jones not reaching the end zone. Even without the touchdowns, Jones is a WR1 and ranks as our No. 3 WR for Week 3. Start him versus the Saints.
Week 2 vs. Carolina Panthers
Julio Jones caught 10-of-19 targets for 169 yards in the Falcons’ Week 1 loss to the Eagles. Naturally, none of those 10 catches came inside the end zone. In fact, Jones wasn’t even in the game when the Falcons went for it on fourth-and-goal on their opening possession of the game. OC Steve Sarkisian was a problem last year and his issues have seemingly returned again this season. Nevertheless, Jones remains a must-start every week. Even when he’s not scoring touchdowns he sees a ton of targets. He ranks as our No. 3 WR for Week 2.
Week 1 at Philadelphia Eagles
Julio Jones is fully healthy heading into Week 1 of the regular season but was held out of preseason play in efforts to avoid injury. He enters the season as Matt Ryan’s go-to target in the passing game again and should improve upon the three touchdowns he scored a year ago. Hopefully, with better playcalling (Steve Sarkisian should be more comfortable in Year 2 in Atlanta), Jones finds the pay dirt more frequently and emerges as one of the top fantasy receivers in 2018. Ranked as our No. 3 WR for Week 1, Jones is a must-start against the Eagles Thursday night.
Fantasy Upside
The Falcons took a step back last season after transitioning from former offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan to new playcaller Steve Sarkisian. That said, Julio Jones was actually targeted more under Sarkisian (148) than Shanahan (129), caught more passes (88 to 83), and racked up more yardage (1,444 to 1,409) as well. Despite scoring just three touchdowns last season (compared to eight in 2015 and six in 2016 under Shanahan), Jones still finished as fantasy's WR6, same as the year before.
Now that Sarkisian is in his second year, he should have a better grasp on how to maximize Atlanta's offensive talent. Remember, Shanahan was criticized mightily in his first year before he helped turn Matt Ryan into an MVP winner and the Falcons into an NFC champion. Despite adding Calvin Ridley in the first round of the draft, Jones remains far-and-away the Falcons' No. 1 receiver and Ryan's primary go-to guy.
Fantasy Downside
Jones produced from a yardage and reception standpoint last year but his touchdown output was his lowest since 2013. There was a narrative that Sarkisian failed to generate targets for Jones in the red zone but that actually wasn't the case. In 2016 under Shanahan, Jones was targeted just four times on third-down red zone plays but he scored six total touchdowns. In 2017, Julio saw eight such targets but scored just three total touchdowns. If both Sarkisian and Ryan don't improve their success rate inside the red zone then the entire Atlanta offense wills suffer, not just Jones. And with a current ADP of 2.03 in 10-team leagues, fantasy owners will once again pay a premium for a guy who doesn't score many touchdowns. Selecting Ridley in the first round only serves to add another mouth to feed in this offense, too.
2018 Bottom Line
Jones proved to be immune to Sarkisian's questionable playcalling a year ago, producing a top-10 fantasy ranking for the fourth consecutive season. In fairness to Sarkisian, he did improve in the second half of the season once he started to get more aggressive on early downs and he should be more confident in year two in Atlanta. Even if Sark falters as a playcaller, Jones will still produce. You'll pay a premium for him in your draft but now that his mini-holdout is officially over, Jones takes his place among the elite fantasy options at the WR position. He's a bona fide WR1.
Divisional Round at Philadelphia Eagles
Julio Jones caught 9-of-10 targets for 94 yards and a touchdown in the Falcons’ Wild Card win over the Rams. Jones was the only Atlanta player to catch more than four passes as he routinely found openings in L.A.’s secondary. His touchdown was on a pop-up from Matt Ryan, who threw the pass while his back foot was sliding backward.
In seven postseason games, Jones has 52 receptions on 65 targets for 733 yards and 6 touchdowns. He’s a big-time performer as it is, but he really shows up in the playoffs. Jones was dealing with an ankle injury but Dan Quinn confirmed on Thursday that his star receiver will play Saturday when the Falcons travel to Philadelphia to take on an Eagles defense ranked 23rd against fantasy receivers. Ranked as our No. 2 WR for the Divisional Round, Jones in a bona fide WR1 for this weekend.
Wild Card Round at Los Angeles Rams
Julio Jones caught 5-of-11 targets for 80 yards in the Falcons' Week 17 win over the Panthers. He finished the regular season with just 3 touchdowns in 16 games, with two of those scores coming in one Week 12 matchup with Tampa Bay. After stating he wants to get Jones more involved in the red zone during the offseason, Steve Sarkisian never designed ways to utilize his best receiving target this season. Jones didn't help himself with drops and Matt Ryan's regression was also a factor. Still, Jones remained productive this year, posting 1,444 receiving yards, which ranked second in the league behind only Antonio Brown.
Ranked as our No. 2 WR for Wild Card weekend, you'll pay a premium for Jones in DFS but he's worth it. The Falcons will visit the Rams on Saturday night and L.A. ranks as fantasy's No. 20 defense against receivers. They've had issues with bigger wide receivers this season, including DeAndre Hopkins (7-111-0), Adam Thielen (6-123-0), and Larry Fitzgerald (10-98-1).
Week 17 vs. Carolina Panthers
Julio Jones caught 7-of-11 targets for 149 yards in the Falcons’ Week 16 loss to the Saints. Jones was seen “wincing” and playing with his injured left thumb during pregame warmups but it clearly didn’t affect his performance. He should have had a touchdown but replay wasn’t conclusive after he caught the ball just shy of the goal line. Devonta Freeman was stuffed from the 1 on 4th-and-goal the following play to add insult to injury.
On top of the thumb injury, Jones is also dealing with a bad ankle. If the Falcons beat the Panthers on Sunday they will secure a playoff spot so there’s little chance Jones is in street clothes this weekend but monitor the situation anyway. Jones has disappointed from a fantasy standpoint but remains a top 3 receiver. Ranked as our WR3 for Week 17, get him in your lineup if you’re playing this week.
