Week 2 vs Cowboys
It was yet another dominating start to the season for Julio Jones, but we really didn't expect much less. He didn't find the end zone but still had 157 yards on nine catches as Atlanta's passing offense soared, despite the loss, The last time Atlanta faced Dallas, Jones posted a line of 6-118-1 on nine targets and also has a 12-164-2 line (20 targets) in 2015 under his belt. He's WR3 this week. No need to think this one.
Julio Jones is dominant no matter who he faces. It's why he's regarded as arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL. And Seattle is no exception. Despite not finding the end zone, Jones posted ten catches for 152 yards when these teams got together last season. And after having a dry spell of touchdowns last season, Jones is dying to find paydirt here in Week 1, as he did in last year's opener against the Vikings.
Fantasy Upside
There probably isn't much that needs to be said regarding Julio Jones. He is still one of the best, arguably the best, wide receiver in the NFL. With Matt Ryan still slinging the ball the offense basically the same from 2019, an important caveat this season, Jones will continue to dominate in 2020.
Fantasy Downside
Maybe the only worry with Jones is the chance he doesn't find the end zone often, as was the case in 2019. After scoring four touchdowns in the first three games, he went without until a touchdown until finding the end zone twice against the 49ers in Week 15. That output is almost certain to go up in 2020.
2020 Bottom Line
Even with a projected 6.5 touchdowns this season, Jones is going to gobble up catches (projected 102 catches, 1,434 yards) and currently sits as our WR3 in early rankings, behind only Michael Thomas and Davante Adams. In what's going to be a strange 2020 season, Jones is one of the safest bets among all fantasy players.
Week 17 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Julio was not able to find the end zone in Week 16 but his usage was off the charts for the second straight week. Since Ridley was ruled out with a season-ending abdominal injury, the Falcons are targeting Julio early and often. In Week 16, he finished with 33% of the team targets and 57% of the team air yards. He had 222 air yards, while the next closest receiving option, Austin Hooper, had 78 air yards. Jones finished with 10 receptions on 15 targets for 166 yards. In the last two weeks, Julio has 23 receptions on 35 targets, 300 yards, 375 air yards, two touchdowns, 42% of the team targets and 62% of the team air yards. There is no reason to believe this usage will slow down against the Buccaneers because Ridley’s season is officially over and the Buccaneers have the third-worst defense against wide receivers, per our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. 4for4’s rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Jones ranked as a high-end half PPR WR1.
The Falcons are out of the playoff picture but they were essentially out of the picture after a 1-7 start to their season. Monitor Week 17 news closely, but the Falcons are planning on playing their starters at the time of writing this blurb. It is unknown how long the starters will play but the starters could play the majority of the game if it stays competitive. This matchup has one of the highest over/unders (48) of the week.
Week 16 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Mount Saint Julio erupted in Week 15 against San Francisco. He took full advantage of Calvin Ridley’s season-ending abdominal injury and Richard Sherman’s absence due to a hamstring injury. The Falcons game plan was to get Julio involved often. He finished with 51% of the team targets and an unworldly 72% of the team air yards. Jones had 152 air yards, while the next closest receiving option, Austin Hooper, had 23 air yards. Jones finished with 13 receptions on 20 targets for 134 yards and two touchdowns.
Jones is unlikely to match his team target and air yard percentages from last week but it is reasonable to think the Falcons could continue to pepper him with targets. Jacksonville’s defense is eighth-best against wide receivers, per our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. 4for4’s rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Jones ranked as a high-end half PPR WR1. He is a must-start in fantasy championships.
Week 15 at San Francisco 49ers
In Week 14, Julio finished with five receptions on eight targets for 66 scoreless yards, led the team with 113 air yards, 24% of the team targets, 35% of the team air yards, and finished as the half PPR WR43.
Jones has been limited in practice this week but appears to be on track to play in a difficult matchup on the road against the 49ers. San Francisco’s defense is seventh-best against wide receivers, per our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. 4for4’s rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Jones ranked as a low-end half PPR WR1. Jones has been held under 100 yards in his last four games and hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 3. He scored four touchdowns in the first three games but hasn’t found the end zone since then. Jones could see an uptick in usage because teammate, Calvin Ridley, has been ruled out for the rest of the season and 49ers’ CB Richard Sherman has also been ruled out. Jones might need a significant increase in target share to hit pay dirt against a stingy secondary.
Week 14 vs. Carolina Panthers
Julio missed last week due to a shoulder injury. Jones practiced on Wednesday and Thursday and is on track to play in Week 14. The Panthers are 16th against wide receivers, per our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. Jones draws a difficult matchup against cornerback James Bradberry but is always a threat to produce great fantasy numbers. 4for4’s rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Jones ranked as a low end half PPR WR1.
Week 13 vs. New Orleans Saints
Update:
Jones is inactive for Week 13.
In Week 12, Julio finished with five receptions on nine targets for 68 scoreless yards, 104 air yards, 16% of the team targets, and 20% of the team air yards. Julio was projected as a consensus top-five wide receiver and was a popular play in daily fantasy football but he sadly finished as the half PPR WR35.
Jones did not practice on Monday or Tuesday (shoulder) and his playing status should be monitored closely heading into the Thanksgiving night game against the Saints. The Saints are third-best against wide receivers, per our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. 4for4’s rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Jones ranked as a mid-range PPR WR2.
Week 12 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
In Week 11, Julio finished with six receptions on eight targets for 91 scoreless yards, 116 air yards, 25% of the team targets, and 40% of the team air yards.
Every fantasy manager with Julio on their roster should be starting him this week. Austin Hooper and Devonta Freeman are still out, which should result in more opportunities for Jones and Ridley. The Falcons are playing at home with the highest over/under (51) of the week. Tampa Bay is dead last against wide receivers, per our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. 4for4’s rankings expert John Paulsen has Jones ranked as the half PPR WR2.
Week 11 at Carolina Panthers
In Week 10, Jones finished with three receptions on nine targets for 79 scoreless yards, 118 air yards, 26% of the team targets, and 45% of the team air yards.
Monitor cornerback, James Bradberry’s health closely because he is likely to provide shadow coverage against Julio. Bradberry missed Week 10 with a groin injury but resumed practicing on Wednesday. The Panthers are 10th-best against wide receivers, per our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. The matchup is tough but Julio is a matchup-proof starting receiver in every fantasy format. 4for4’s rankings expert John Paulsen has Jones ranked as a middle of the pack half PPR WR1.
