Week 1 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Josh Gordon was traded to the Patriots in Week 3 of the 2018 season. He missed the final two weeks of the Patriots 2018 season and the entirety of the playoffs after again violating the NFL's substance abuse policy. From Week 6 through Week 13 as a starter, Gordon was the WR22, and he returned from suspension in late August to play in New England's final preseason game.
Gordon enters Week 1 with a full week of offseason practice, and a year of experience in the Patriots offensive system. He should see a full starter's workload as Tom Brady's primary outside wide receiver, seeing primary coverage from Steelers cornerback Steven Nelson. Nelson will have his hands full with a focused Gordon, who projects as a WR3.
Week 15 at Pittsburgh Steelers
As usual, there are a lot of reasons to like Patriots players in fantasy this week. New England has an implied team total of 27.5, among the highest in the league. Only Baltimore is averaging more offensive plays per game this season than New England, and only Baltimore and Dallas have more offensive plays over the past three weeks. Plus, this game has an over/under of 52, among the highest of Week 15. Pittsburgh ranks fifth in aFPA to WRs, but with Josh Gordon's play-making ability and the previously stated factors, he's again a boom-or-bust WR2 option.
Week 14 at Miami Dolphins
The New England Patriots head to Miami with a top five implied team total, facing a defense that ranks just 29th in total defense this season. New England struggled at Hard Rock Stadium surprisingly, but this Dolphins defensive unit doesn't have the pieces it had last year. Miami ranks just 21st in aFPA to WRs, and that was before top cornerback Xavien Howard was ruled out of this game. However, Josh Gordon will likely be matched up with rising corner talent Minkah Fitzpatrick. That makes him a less attractive play than Julian Edelman but still no worse than a FLEX in Week 14.
Week 13 vs. Minnesota Vikings
The New England Patriots have a healthy implied team total of 27 points this week in a game hovering around an over/under of 50. Minnesota ranks top five in aFPA to WRs. Rob Gronkowski's return last week put a dent into Gordon's targets, only getting five of them, his lowest total since Week 5. That decrease in targets moves him down our rankings this week to a FLEX option with so many options now back in this offense, instead of the WR2 he was before. The tough match-up is also a factor for Week 13.
Week 12 at New York Jets
The Patriots come off the bye week motivated to not lose consecutive games, and their implied team total reflects that. New England is tied for the second most expected points on the Sunday-Monday slate at 28.5 points. Plus, the Jets are just 24th in aFPA to WRs. Plus, Josh Gordon has 22 targets in his past two games. He's a full member of this offense at this point. He may draw the tougher CB match-up than Julian Edelman though, as Trumaine Johnson is likely to cover him. Johnson has had a much better season than slot corner Buster Skrine. Nevertheless, this offense is in a position to again return at least WR2 numbers for Josh Gordon, and Gordon is athletic enough to beat any CB matched against him.
Week 10 at Green Bay Packers
The Patriots only have the eighth-highest implied team total of the Sunday slate at 26.5 points, a departure from their usual spot near the top of that weekly list. Perhaps some respect from the oddsmakers against this Titans defense, but Tennessee is only 28th in aFPA to WRs. And hello, Josh Gordon! His role continues to grow, with ten targets last week. He's playing full starter snaps now as well, and expect Bill Belichick to scheme Gordon to see coverage against former Patriots corner and now weekly receiver doormat Malcolm Butler. Gordon is a solid WR2 for Week 10.
Week 8 vs. Green Bay Packers
In a showdown between Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers in Week 9, expect a lot of points. New England has a monster implied team total of 31.5 points, highest of the week. Josh Gordon had a disappointing Week 8, but it was against tough outside cornerbacks in Buffalo. He still saw 16 targets in the previous two weeks and gets a much better match-up against Green Bay, ranked just 27th in aFPA to WRs. Gordon should be a considered in the FLEX/low-end WR2 range, who is always a threat for the big play in what should be a high scoring game. It also doesn't hurt that the Patriots did not add another receiver at the trade deadline.
Week 8 at Buffalo Bills
The Patriots head to Buffalo Monday night to face a Bills team they've averaged 33.7 points against in their last three meetings. New England has also scored at least 38 points in each of its last four games and has a Week 8 implied team total of 29 points. Sony Michel will not play this week, which means the Patriots could be even more pass happy. These are all good signs for Josh Gordon, as was his full-time starter usage last week, turning 95 percent snaps and seven targets into 100 yards. He will face tough coverage in Buffalo, but Gordon should be a FLEX option with upside in Week 8.
Week 6 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Patriots have the highest implied team total of Week 6 at 31.5 points. The Chiefs are bottom half in the league in aFPA to WRs. However, Josh Gordon has yet to play more than 30 percent of snaps in a Patriots uniform. Until he gets to 60 percent or more of snaps and a relevant target share, he's too risky to play in re-draft leagues. You're just blindly hoping for a touchdown by playing him.
Week 5 vs. Indianapolis Colts (TNF)
The Patriots have the highest implied team total for Week 5 at 31 points, coming off a dominant performance against the Dolphins. Indy ranks just 13th in aFPA against WRs, but the Colts offense may have trouble moving the ball with a banged up O-Line and down its best pass-catcher in T.Y. Hilton. That could lead to even more possessions for the Patriots offense. However, with Julian Edelman back from suspension, it's best to keep stashing Josh Gordon on your bench until we see his role in the offense reach a point where he's seeing consistently high snaps week to week.
