Week 7 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Washington and Dallas is a game that's expected to be low scoring, as it is the second-lowest total on the Week 7 slate. Even with Jamison Crowder out last week, Doctson only saw six targets. No Washington receiver is fantasy relevant, as none of them are averaging five targets per game.
Week 5 at New Orleans Saints
Washington comes off its early bye week and heads to New Orleans for a game that's tied for the second-highest over/under of Week 5's Sunday and Monday slate. The Saints rank dead last in aFPA to WRs. Target share is the issue here though. No Washington receiver is even averaging five targets per game. Chris Thompson and Jordan Reed are taking the lead in this offense with what appears to be pre-Tyreek Hill Alex Smith running the show at quarterback. Remember when Smith went an entire season without a touchdown to a wide receiver? Yeah, don't play a Washington receiver unless you're desperate. You just don't know which will pop in any given week.
Week 3 vs. Green Bay Packers
Our preseason fears have been realized for this group of Washington WRs with Alex Smith at quarterback and Jordan Reed healthy. Here are the target totals for Redskins pass-catchers this season: RB Chris Thompson-21, TE Jordan Reed-13, Paul Richardson-12, Josh Doctson-10, Jamison Crowder-8, RB Adrian Peterson-6, TE Vernon Davis-2. The ball is being spread around and no Washington wide receiver is fantasy relevant in Week 3. The production just isn't there through two weeks.
Week 2 vs. Indianapolis Colts
In Las Vegas this week, only the Steelers, Saints and Rams have a higher implied team total than the Redskins, illustrating confidence in this offense against a poor Colts defense (25th in aFPA to WRs last year). The Colts allowed two touchdowns to receivers last week. However, a healthy Jordan Reed makes it hard for Washington receivers to break out in fantasy. Only 13 of Alex Smith's 29 passes went to receivers last week—three to Doctson. Every Washington receiver averaged less than six targets per game in weeks Jordan Reed played a full game last year. For these reasons, Doctson is too risky to start.
Week 1 at Arizona Cardinals
If Washington's best receiver last year, Jamison Crowder, was only the WR51 in PPR leagues last year when TE Jordan Reed was healthy, how can you start any other receiver in this offense Week 1? This game is expected to be competitive but also low scoring. It has the sixth-lowest over/under in Vegas for Week 1. This adds up to Doctson being a dart not worth throwing in Week 1.
Fantasy Upside
Doctson should start in 3-WR sets in Washington with Paul Richardson also on the outside and Jamison Crowder manning the slot. Doctson saw double-digit fantasy points in four of the final seven games of the season last year.
Fantasy Downside
In those four double-digit fantasy games down the stretch, Doctson only averaged 2.8 receptions, making him very touchdown dependent. Plus, Jordan Reed appears to be healthy this preseason and when he's healthy the other receivers get far fewer targets in this offense. Doctson averaged six targets per game without Reed but only 2.4 with him on the field. Reed takes his red zone looks away too.
2018 Bottom Line
Docston is a wild card late-round pick that has boom-or-bust potential which is attractive for a best-ball pick at his ADP. In redraft leagues, however, he's likely to be a weekly headache. He's a deep sleeper in those formats.
Week 17 at New York Giants
Washington will look to finish the season on a high note, with most starters playing in Week 17, unless injured. The Giants defense is just 31st in aFPA to WRs. Doctson has played at least 90% of the snaps in five straight games, but the matchups have been brutal. That type of playing time should translate much better in this matchup. That makes him a FLEX option to close out the season.
Week 16 vs. Denver Broncos
The Broncos are the toughest defense in the league against WRs, based on aFPA. Plus, Josh Doctson has not gone over 40 yards in four straight weeks. Nope. Can't start him anywhere.
Week 15 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Josh Doctson is likely to draw shutdown shadow corner Patrick Peterson in this matchup, making him far too risky to start in Week 15 during the fantasy playoffs. Look elsewhere for WR help.
Week 14 at Los Angeles Chargers
Washington has a below average implied team total in Vegas this week of 20.25 points. The Chargers have also allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to receivers over the past four weeks, and Josh Doctson has a good chance of seeing Chargers shutdown corner Casey Hayward. Yes, Doctson has three straight weeks of double-digit PPR points, but two of those performances were because he found the end zone. How lucky do you feel against a tougher defense this week? You shouldn't feel lucky at all and should bench him in this win-or-go-home week.
