Week 7 vs. Seattle
John Brown has been hard to trust this year. He struggled the first few games of the season, then had 16 targets in Week 4 against the Rams, but has been quiet again since then. He had only 54 yards last week, although he did catch five passes. He’s a talented player, but hasn’t shown enough consistency to give him legit fantasy value.
Brown is fighting a hamstring issue this week also, so keep an eye on his status for the game before starting him. Against Seattle this week, it might be a better idea to look away from him anyway. Seattle is tied for second in the league in touchdown passes allowed – only four all year – and Brown may struggle to find room. He’s a low-end WR3 option at best in most leagues.
Update:
Brown was diagnosed with sickle-cell causing pain in his leg. He's doubtful and fantasy owners should make sure he's not in their lineups.
Week 6 vs. New York Jets
John Brown has been a bigger part of the offense over the past couple of games. After only seeing the field for around half the snaps the first three weeks of the season, he’s been on the field for more than 90% of the team’s offensive snaps the last two weeks, and was targeted 16 times in Week 4. Last week, he only had one catch for 11 yards, but was targeted five times and suffered from Drew Stanton playing QB and the Cardinals running a more conservative game plan.
With Carson Palmer reportedly ready to return to action Monday night, and the Cardinals going up against a Jets secondary that has really struggled defending the deep ball this season, Brown has WR2 upside. He should be targeted heavily and is arguably the best deep threat in the starting rotation for the Cardinals, giving him some interesting upside. The Jets gave up four touchdowns to Ben Roethlisberger last week and Brown should benefit from the matchup.
Week 5 at San Francisco
After not doing much in the first two games of the season, John Brown has had double-digit targets the past two weeks. He finished last week’s loss to the Rams with 10 catches on 16 targets for 144 yards. Brown is a talented playmaker who should be a solid WR3 option in most weeks, as he sees the field for over 50 percent of the offensive snaps in most games.
This week, Brown faces a 49ers defense that has allowed eight touchdown passes so far this season and should be a reasonable matchup for the Cardinals offense. However, QB Carson Palmer is in the concussion protocol. If Palmer starts, then Brown can be in your lineup. If Palmer is out, be ready for a last minute lineup change, because Brown becomes a risky WR3 option in most leagues with Drew Stanton at the helm.
Update:
With Palmer out Thursday night, Brown still has potential for targets, but he's a much riskier option and should be considered a low-end WR3 option in most leagues.
Week 4 vs. Los Angeles
John Brown finally had a decent outing on Sunday against the Bills, putting up 70 yards on six receptions. Most importantly, he was targeted 11 times after only seven total targets his first two games this year. He’s only been on the field for a little more than half the team’s snaps so far this season though, which isn’t a good sign for fantasy owners.
Brown is worth keeping an eye on, as he was a quality fantasy starter at times last year. He’s too risky to start this week while he’s still sharing targets and losing snaps to Michael Floyd, who is clearly in the starting role opposite Larry Fitzgerald. Fantasy owners should view him as a desperation play only.
Week 2 vs. Tampa Bay
John Brown has more big play ability than the other WRs in Arizona, but playing out of the slot most of the time, he’s also the most volatile player in the rotation. He had only one catch for eight yards against the Patriots last week, but he was targeted four times. Brown should be better than he was last week, but he has some inconsistency in his production due to the other talented players on the roster.
The Bucs gave up 334 yards and a pair of touchdown passes to Matt Ryan last week, and the Cardinals should continue to throw the ball regularly with Carson Palmer under center. This gives Brown a fair amount of upside, but he’s too risky to count on. He’s a low-end WR3 this week in most leagues.
Week 1 vs. New England
John Brown was second on the team last year with 65 receptions and he recorded his first 1,000-plus yards season in just his second season in the league. Brown also scored seven touchdowns and showed a tremendous rapport with QB Carson Palmer. He should be entering his prime right now at age 26, although he’ll continue to share targets with Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd.
This week, Brown will face an average New England pass defense that ranked 17th in passing yards allowed last season. He should be productive, but there’s always risk using a guy that’s part of a three-headed passing attack. Brown is going to likely be a steady low-end WR2 upside in most leagues with high upside in any given week.
Fantasy Upside
John Brown shouldn't be overlooked in an offense chock full of weapons; he was second on the team with 65 catches last season, topping the 1,000-yard mark (1,003) and scoring seven touchdowns while averaging 15.4 yards per reception. One of the quickest receivers in the league, he thrives on beating overmatched nickel backs off the line and taking advantage of defenses focusing on the other weapons around him. It's worth noting Brown's progression during his first two years. He had 48 catches for 696 yards and five touchdowns as a rookie in 2014 before picking up the pace last year. Most significantly, his targets were about the same each season (103 and 101), so hopefully Carson Palmer continues to look his way even more in 2016.
Fantasy Downside
The main issue with Brown's value is his tendency to be a lightning-in-a-bottle proposition -- three games with 99-plus yards last season, but nine with fewer than 70.
2016 Bottom Line
As mentioned above, there is competition for targets with Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald. One could argue Brown would have been more productive if it weren't for a hamstring injury that kept him from playing against Cleveland and kept him catch-less in Seattle. Whatever the case, all three Arizona receivers will be drafted in most formats and you're going to have to pay a similar price for any of the three. All of them -- including Brown -- seem like solid values despite the crowded depth chart.
NFC Championship at Carolina
John Brown had a nice enough game against the Packers last week, catching five balls for 82 yards. While the touchdowns went to Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd, Brown was tied for second on the team with nine targets on the day and he continues to be a fairly steady option in the Arizona receiving corps.
The Cardinals face a tough Carolina defense this week that was tied for seventh in the league this year with only 21 touchdown passes allowed all year. However, the Panthers are down their second and third best corners, making Brown an intriguing option for fantasy owners. We have him as one of the better non-WR1 options available this weekend, and he has nice high-floor value with some upside as well.
Week 19 vs. Green Bay
John Brown had a nice sophomore year, finishing the season with 65 catches for 1,003 yards and seven touchdowns. As part of a trio of talented pass catchers in Arizona, Brown represents the speedy, playmaking receivers that can line up anywhere and turn any catch into a big play. He had three touchdowns over the final four games of the season and was heavily-targeted all year.
This week, Brown will face a tough Green Bay pass defense, but should still be solid as part of the prolific Arizona passing game. Brown has some risk because of the multiple receiving options the Cardinals have, but he is still a nice WR2 type of option for fantasy owners looking for a high upside value pick.
Week 17 vs. Seattle
John Brown had three catches for only 25 yards last week, but he caught a touchdown, salvaging what would’ve been a disappointing fantasy outing. Part of his lack of production was the fact that the Cardinals destroyed the Packers on the scoreboard and didn’t need to throw the ball as much during the second half. Still, Brown is one of three very good options in the Cardinal receiving corps, which can make his production a little inconsistent.
This week, Brown has a tough matchup against the league’s best pass defense. Seattle has given up only 13 touchdown passes all year and the Cardinals will have to step up to continue their dominance on offense. Carson Palmer is playing like an MVP, and Brown has scored a touchdown in three straight games, so he remains fantasy relevant, but he’s borderline WR2 in this matchup.
