Week 5 at Tennessee
John Brown is off to a good start for a guy who really wasn't on anyone's fantasy radar. He is averaging just under six catches for 79 yards per game. Brown is the No. 1 target in a limited Buffalo passing game, but has done well through the first quarter of the season.
Brown will face the Titans who rank fifth in aFPA to wide receivers. It won't be easy for the Buffalo offense and even though Brown is their best option, we don't expect much from him in Week 5. Keep him on the bench on Sunday.
Week 4 vs New England
After a fast start to the season, John Brown took a step back Week 3 with only five targets that produced four receptions for 51 yards. The Bills passing game is a work in progress. But Brown will be a part of it as the veteran has the trust of QB Josh Allen.
It will be a tough matchup for Brown against the Patriots who are 10th in aFPA to wide receivers. This should be a defensive battle so expect similar numbers for Brown as last week.
Keep him on the bench although he is close to being fantasy relevant for Week 4. He's just on the outside looking in.
Week 3 vs Cincinnati
His numbers weren't as good as Week 1, but John Brown still had a solid game last Sunday. He was targeted eight times and caught seven passes for 72 yards but was held out of the end zone Week 2.
Brown faces the Bengals who were 11th in aFPA to wide receivers in 2018. We expect his numbers to stay consistent most of the season and occasionally have a big game here and there. He remains the No. 1 target for QB Josh Allen and that carries some fantasy weight,
Start Brown as a solid WR3 for Week 3 in standard leagues and his ranking for PPR is closer to a WR2. He should have good numbers this week in the home debut for Buffalo.
Week 2 at New York Giants
It was a great start for veteran John Brown who caught seven passes for 123 yards and a touchdown. The Bills were hoping Brown could be a reliable receiver for QB Josh Allen and it was evident they had chemistry last week.
Brown will face a Giants defense that is ranked 24th in aFPA to wide receivers. The Bills know their offense is better this season and should be a confident unit against a defense that has struggled in recent years.
There is no doubt Brown's stock has risen after one game and if he continues, he will be the steal of your draft. If he is available, pick him up and start him as a low-end WR2 in New York.
Week 1 at New York Jets
John Brown moves to Buffalo after spending 2018 in Baltimore where he had 42 receptions for 715 yards and five touchdowns. He is the elder statesman of the 2019 Buffalo receiving corp. His success with the Bills will depend more on second-year QB Josh Allen as we are aware of Brown's track record.
The Bills face division rival New York to open the season. The Jets were dead last in aFPA to wide receivers in 2018, but did make improvements in the secondary. Still, it's a good matchup for Brown. The issue is how good will the Buffalo passing game be early in the season. Brown is a good bench player to start the 2019 season and depth for Week 1.
Fantasy Upside
After one season in Baltimore, John Brown moves to the Bills. The veteran receiver averaged 17 yards per catch last year and Buffalo is hoping he can give QB Josh Allen a deep threat. Brown could end up being the most productive receiver in this offense so there is a high ceiling for him.
Fantasy Downside
Buffalo’s passing game was a mess last year as Allen struggled his rookie season. Brown has only had more than 50 catches in the season once back in 2015 where he also eclipsed the 1,000 receiving yard mark. But Brown has never been a No. 1 receiver in an offense in the NFL.
2019 Bottom Line
Brown has the most potential of all the Bills’ wide receivers, but the passing offense as a whole is shaky and how much Buffalo improves is a huge question mark. Brown’s ADP is 186 right now, and that is about right based on his ranking. His numbers should be the same as last year. He is depth at best although someone is going to emerge as Allen’s main target and if that happens, Brown’s numbers could be a surprise.
Wildcard Round vs. Los Angeles Chargers
John Brown was a viable fantasy option when Joe Flacco was slinging it early in the season, but since Lamar Jackson took over, he’s had only eight receptions in seven starts. He’s not alone, the rest of the starting trio of receivers in Baltimore have only combined for 30 receptions total, as the Ravens have gone to a run-heavy attack. This renders Baltimore receivers nearly worthless. The Chargers allow the fifth-least fantasy points to the wide receiver position this year, further decreasing Brown’s potential. Fantasy owners should look elsewhere.
Week 12 vs. Oakland Raiders
With Lamar Jackson at quarterback, John Brown caught his only target of the day, finishing the game with a mere 23 yards. Brown now has failed to eclipse 30 yards in four of his past five games, making it hard to trust him moving forward, especially with Jackson behind center. If Joe Flacco returns this week against a vulnerable Raiders defense, Brown has a chance to get back to his early-season ways, but he’s risky regardless due to his recent struggles. Fantasy owners may be able to consider dropping him.
Week 11 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
After scoring a touchdown in three of his first four games as a Raven, John Brown has cooled off since. He’s had only one touchdown since, and has been under 30 yards in three of his past four games. It’s hard to continue to trust him in an inconsistent offense with a historically frustrating quarterback after he continues to deliver subpar performances.
This week, look for Brown to bounce back against the Bengals. Only the Saints and Buccaneers have allowed more fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season, and Brown should have every opportunity to produce. He has some risk due to his lack of recent production and the potential for Joe Flacco to miss the game, but he has low-end WR2 potential in a great matchup.
Week 9 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
John Brown caught only three passes for 28 yards last week against the Panthers after a big game against the Saints in Week 7. Brown got off to a strong start to the season, but he’s now struggled in three of his last four games. He’s still getting targets, however, – 6.75 per game – so his upside remains high.
This week, Brown will try to do some damage against a Steelers defense that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season. Brown is a little risky because he’s been so volatile this season, but with the targets he’s getting and a nice matchup this week, he should be considered a fringe WR2 option and worth gambling on in most leagues.
