Week 6 vs. Seattle Seahawks
This is what you want to see from Joe Mixon - 25 carries and 29 touches. He ended up with only 92 total yards which you would take from any running back, but he didn't get in the end zone so it was a slightly above average day for him.
Mixon faces the Seahawks who are ranked 22nd in aFPA to running backs. It's all about the touches and we expect him to get 20+ again.
Start Mixon as a low-end RB1 for Week 6. The Bengals offense is starting to get back in form and that is good news for Mixon managers as touches usually mean fantasy production.
Week 5 at Arizona Cardinals
Joe Mixon had 15 touches last Sunday which means he has a minimum of 15 every game this season. The results were limited as the Cincy offense has struggled. He did ended up with 76 total yards and has been consistent so far in 2023 without any big games.
Mixon faces the Cardinals who are ranked 29th in aFPA to running backs. The favorable matchup might open the door for that big game that the Bengals offense is looking for, and for Mixon as well.
Start Mixon as a solid RB1 for Week 5. Expect him to get the touches again and his biggest fantasy numbers of the season.
Week 4 at Tennessee Titans
Joe Mixon had his highest touches total of the season hitting the 20 mark and that's usually good news for his managers. He had 70 total yards and also his first touchdown of the season. As long as he gets touches, Mixon always has good fantasy results.
The Bengals faces the Titans who are ranked 6th in aFPA to running backs. Mixon didn't play in last season's meeting, and has only faced them once in his career where he rushed for 37 yards
We expect a healthy does of Mixon this Sunday even with an unfavorable matchup. Start him as a low-end RB1 for Week 4. The Bengals offense should be able to put up some good fantasy numbers.
Week 3 vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Bengals offense has struggled with QB Joe Burrow's injury and Joe Mixon's numbers have been affected. He has less than 20 touches in both games but more important, his fantasy numbers are lower than expected although he did increase to 95 total yards last week.
Whether Burrow plays or not, Mixon is still the workhorse for Cincy. It's just the overall offensive ineptness that is limiting everyone and that revolves around Burrow's health.
Start Mixon in all leagues and formats as a low-end RB1 for Week 3 against the Rams. We expect him to start getting 20+ touches which will push those fantasy numbers to the place you expect.
Week 2 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Joe Mixon was about the only Bengal with a respectable fantasy day in the opener. He ended up with 16 touches for 73 yards which is still lower than you would expect from him, but good enough to justify his ranking from earlier in the week,
Mixon is most effective when he has 20+ touches and the Bengals offense doesn't stink like it did against Cleveland. The Ravens are up and that means another tough division matchup. Mixon faced Baltimore three times last year with one quality outing. He received 14-17 touches in each of the three games, but he had 88 total yards in the first meeting and 114 in the next two.
Mixon should be in your starting lineup despite some negatives. He ranks a solid RB1 for Week 2. Expect him to get his minimum 15 touches and similar production from Week 1 with the hope the Bengals put the ball in the end zone.
Week 1 at Cleveland Browns
Joe Mixon will be the workhorse again for the Bengals. He had been a top fantasy option until last year when he fell off slightly. We expect him to be back into form and be consistently an RB1.
Mixon faces Cleveland and had mixed results last season. He rushed for only 27 yards in the first meeting while running for 98 yards in the second. His receiving numbers are a factor and he had seven receptions in the first game which helped managers who were in PPR leagues. He ended up with two in the second meeting.
Start Mixon in all leagues and formats as a solid RB1 for Week 1. Cleveland poses a challenge for the Bengals, but Mixon should get a minimum of 20 touches and has had success against the Browns throughout his career.
Fantasy Upside
After a slow start, Joe Mixon was a very reliable fantasy running back as the season went on. A new offensive line might have been one of the reasons for the slow start, but he was getting 16.7 fantasy points per game once things settled in. Mixon is the clear-cut No. 1 back in Cincy and will be used three downs a majority of the time. He is projected to catch 50+ passes this season and that increases his value even more in PPR leagues.
Fantasy Downside
The Cincinnati offense continues to revolve around the passing game which can limit the running game. Mixon's rushing numbers will be pedestrian because of the team's offensive game plans. He averaged over 75 yards per game just two years ago, but that number dropped to 58 yards per game last season and we expect that number to trend down.
2023 Bottom Line
Mixon's ranking for 2023 is more a reflection of where the Bengals offense is then his ability. He still will be pretty good in PPR leagues and average in standard leagues. He is the 17th-ranked running back this season and has an ADP in the 4th or 5th round. But that actually is too high for him this season and he is getting drafted there because of reputation. There are several better fantasy running backs being drafted a round or two later that are better value.
Week 17 vs. Buffalo Bills
For the first time in over a month, Joe Mixon had 20+ touches. It produced 108 total yards as Cincinnati continued to use him in both phases of the game. It was good to see him bounce back after a sub-par game the week before. Mixon has been inconsistent at times this season, as he has 27 or less rushing yards three times over his last six games.
Mixon faces the Bills who are ranked 21st in aFPA to running backs. This is a favorable matchup for him and pushes him to a low-end RB1 ranking for Week 17.
Start Mixon even though the trend says he will have down game on Monday. A shootout is possible and we do expect him to get close to 20 touches, which should produce enough to warrant the ranking.
Week 16 at New England Patriots
Joe Mixon continues to get in the 15-touch range which has taken away some fantasy value from him. Some of that is due to injuries and the usage of Samaje Perine. Mixon only rushed for 21 yards last week although he did add five receptions for 33 receiving yards. He always seems to deliver when he gets 20+ touches, but he hasn't gotten those touches during the second half of the season.
Mixon faces the Patriots who are ranked 3rd in aFPA to running backs. The Bengals will have to stick with the run to get him involved as New England is much better against the run this season.
Start Mixon as a high-end RB2 for Week 16. The touches are the key stat to watch and in recent weeks, he has not been getting the ball as much as he probably should.
Week 15 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After missing two weeks, Joe Mixon returned to action with 16 touches for 106 yards which included 96 yards rushing. It was good numbers coming back from the concussion and that was only playing 58% of the snaps. Expect that number to go back up.
Mixon faces the Buccaneers who are ranked 15th in aFPA to running backs. We know that when he gets the touches, he performs for his fantasy teams. Start Mixon as a solid RB1 for Week 15. Should be another good offensive game for the Bengals and Mixon will be almost back to his full workload, which should justify his ranking.
