Week 3 at Green Bay Packers
Joe Mixon's rushing numbers were a little better last Thursday as he averaged four yards a carry, but the crowded Bengals backfield is causing some issues for Mixon's owners. He is listed No. 1 on the depth chart, but only played 25% of the snaps in Week 2—half as much as Giovani Bernard. This created only 10 touches last week and a two-week total of 21. However, this was still the most of any of the Bengals backs.
The Bengals offense has struggled overall and now heads to Green Bay to take on an average run defense. With a combination of a struggling offense and low usage through two weeks, Mixon's fantasy value has taken a dip, although the consensus is he will eventually take snaps away from Bernard. The question is when.
Mixon rates a low-end RB3 or flex option, at best, for Week 3.
Week 2 vs. Houston Texans
Joe Mixon made his NFL debut last week and it's not what fantasy owners were hoping for. He had 11 touches for 24 yards. While other rookie backs flourished in Week 1, Mixon was held in check by an ineffective offense and a lack of playing time (played only 36% of the snaps). Of course, this could be an ongoing problem with veterans Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard still receiving playing time.
Mixon has a decent matchup this week against the Texans. However, until we see the snap count rise, it will limit his fantasy value week-to-week.
We have a feeling the Bengals offense will bounce back, but there are plenty of question marks and a cluttered backfield. Keep Mixon on your bench and seek better options.
Week 1 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Despite two veterans who have carried the load the past several seasons, Joe Mixon is the No. 1 running back to start the season for the Bengals. No doubt he is the running back of the future. But you have to think that Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard will still be involved in the offense.
The Ravens had were 10th in aFPA to running backs in 2016 and shut down the Bengals running game down in the two meetings last season.
We expect Mixon to get the most touches of all the Bengals backs and is the highest rated Cincinnati back for fantasy in Week 1. Start Mixon as a high-end RB3 or flex against Baltimore.
Fantasy Upside
Rookie running backs can be successful in NFL, as has been proven over the years. However, they need opportunities. Luckily for Joe Mixon, he should get plenty of opportunities in 2017, after Cincinnati drafted him in the second round. Mixon was a dynamic player at Oklahoma, rushing for 1,274 yards and 10 touchdowns, and catching 37 passes for 538 yards last season. In college, he was known for making defenders miss tackles, and elusive was a word used plenty of times to describe Mixon's running style.
Fantasy Downside
It's a very crowded backfield in Cincinnati. Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard return, having been Cincinnati's 1-2 punch the past two seasons. We aren't exactly sure where Mixon will fit in. Bernard might not be healthy to start the season and Hill is considered more of a power back. Preseason could be where a decision might be made. There's also concern about Mixon's off-the-field issues at Oklahoma. The spotlight will be on him to behave like a model citizen this season.
2017 Bottom Line
The distribution of touches will be the biggest concern for all Cincinnati running backs. The Bengals love Mixon, as he gives the team what Hill and Bernard do in one complete package. Mixon's ADP is 52 overall, making him the 20th running back off the board. This is about where he ranks going into the 2017 season. He would be higher if we knew he was the feature back.
