Fantasy Upside
The Bengals are committed to running the football. Offensive coordinator Hue Jackson put his stamp on the franchise his first year as Cincy was ranked 6th in the NFL in rushing yards in 2014. Jeremy Hill is now No. 1 on the depth chart and deserves it. Once he was inserted as the starter last season, he exploded. He rushed for 100+ yards in five of those eight starts including four over 147 yards. Hill also averaged 5.1 yards per carry and scored six touchdowns the second half of the season.
Fantasy Downside
Giovanni Bernard is a darn good back and will have Hill looking over his shoulder. Bernard is a different type of back which will help the Bengals give defenses different looks. He also is capable of stepping in should Hill underachieve or get hurt. Hill has a very short track record with only one year under his belt. We are not sure what you will get in goal line situations or in the passing game (he only caught 11 passes last season).
Bottom Line
Hill is just on the outside of our top 10 running backs for 2015, but it doesn't mean he won't end up there as the season progresses. He is a very powerful back who will be featured by Cincy. He will get the majority of the touches, even with Bernard on the roster. His ADP is 18, but he might be a better target even higher than that considering what we saw from him last season. No doubt he is a second round pick, and if the Bengals can get him involved in the passing game, he will return first round value.
Week 18: Hill vs Colts
Jeremy Hill recorded his third straight 100+ yard game and there is little doubt the offense goes through him, especially with star wide receiver A.J. Green struggling with health problems. He has averaged 23 carries over that three week stretch and should get those carries this week in Indy.
He did not get them in the first meeting back in October as he had only four rushing attempts, but that was before he took a prominent role in the back field. The Colts rank 24th in aFPA to running backs plus the Bengals have really tried to play ball control on the road to limit QB Andy Dalton's mistakes.
Hill is a great play this week against Indianapolis although his long-term playoff impact could be limited because the Bengals have been very good at one and outs during the Dalton era. Still, start Hill as one of the best fantasy running backs this weekend.
Week 17: Hill vs Steelers
Jeremy Hill has become the running back of choice here at the end of the season in Cincinnati. He has rushed for 295 yards over the past two games while adding three touchdowns. Hill also was in on 39 offensive snaps compared to 24 for Giovani Bernard.
Hill did not have that type of success against Pittsburgh three weeks ago. He only had 11 touches for 67 yards. The Steelers are 3rd in aFPA to running backs, but even with a bad matchup, Hill has been the primary offensive weapon for Cincy, so expect a lot more touches this time around. Start him as a solid RB1 for Week 17.
Week 16: Hill vs Broncos
Jeremy Hill had his best game since Giovani Bernard returned to the lineup and it could be an indication of where the Bengals are going with their RB rotation. Hill had a snap advantage of 46 to 28 and broke the 100-yard barrier for the third time this season. He also had two touchdowns in a game for the second time this season.
It won't be easy this Monday when Cincy faces Denver who is 2nd in aFPA to running backs. The tough matchup and the fact that Bernard is still a factor should limit Hill's production. He still has value as a solid RB2, but don't expect a repeat of last week's numbers against the Broncos.
Week 15: Hill vs Browns
The split in snaps between Jeremy Hill and Giovanni Bernard is hurting both players' fantasy value. They can make plays but have less opportunities to do so. Hill only had 11 touches last week so you would like to see more production from your starting running back.
You might see that this week as the Bengals hit the road against division-rival Cleveland. Cincy will emphasize the running game on the road so we expect Hill to have better numbers even with a tough matchup (Browns are 8th in aFPA to running backs. Start him as a high-end RB2 for Week 15.
Week 14: Hill vs Steelers
Jeremy Hill split carries with Giovani Bernard last week and that will be the trend moving forward. He had 17 touches, but not a lot of success numbers-wise. Hill is still providing quality rookie numbers overall, but the time sharing with Bernard will limit him the rest of the season.
The Steelers are the next opponent and are 15th in aFPA to running backs. They struggled against Mark Ingram last week and Hill is a similar back. Start Hill as an RB2 for Week 14.
Week 13: Hill vs Buccaneers
The return of Giovani Bernard will definitely affect Jeremy Hill's workload, but not eliminate his fantasy viability. Expect the two to split snaps and carries evenly. Bernard has a slight edge over the Hill when it comes to PPR leagues, but they both will be good options overall.
The matchup definitely helps Hill as the Bucs are 25th in aFPA to running backs. Even with the split touches, Hill is good fantasy play for Week 13. Start him as a low-end RB2 against Tampa.
Week 12: Hill vs Texans
Even though Giovanni Bernard is expected to play this week, we expect a healthy dose of both running backs against Houston. Jeremy Hill has earned that playing time and offensive coordinator Hue Jackson has stated both backs will get the ball although Hill will be the starter while Bernard gets back in game shape.
The Texans are 22nd in aFPA to running backs so the matchup favors the Bengals running game. Hill's ranking comes down a little this week, but he still had plenty of value. Start him as a low-end RB2 for Week 12.
Week 11: Hill vs Saints
With Giovanni Bernard still on the mend, Jeremy Hill will continue to get the bulk of the carries. He did not put up the numbers last week against Cleveland like he did the previous week against Jacksonville, but the Bengals offense was atrocious overall last week.
New Orleans is 23rd in aFPA to running backs this season so Hill has a favorable matchup. Hill should be pretty good this week so start him as a high-end RB2 and hope QB Andy Dalton doesn't stink up the joint again as that brings down the whole Cincy offense.
Week 10: Hill vs Browns
With Giovani Bernard out last week, Jeremy Hill exploded with some impressive fantasy stats. He rushed for 154 yards and two touchdowns. These numbers will help Hill get more touches when Bernard returns, but that might not happen this week. Bernard did not practice on Tuesday and with the short week, Bengals coaches might decide to give him some more time to heal.
Hill should have a big game again as Cleveland is ranked 26th in aFPA to running backs. No doubt the Bengals want to focus on the run considering Andy Dalton has struggled at times this season.
If Bernard doesn't play, Hill ranks an RB1 for Week 10. If Bernard is active, expect Hill to still get the bulk of the workload and he will definitely be able to help your team.
