Week 2 at Pittsburgh
First thing you look at with Jeremy Hill's fantasy performance is snaps, as Giovanni Bernard is always in the picture. Week 1 was split pretty much down the middle, although neither player was a big part of the offense.
Hill ran the ball nine times for 31 yards, but did get his team in the end zone to give him a decent fantasy afternoon. He will face Pittsburgh, who did not let Washington run the ball very well and is expected to be even better up front.
The trend all season will be split time with the two backs. So for Week 2, Hill rates a WR3 or flex if you want to play him.
Week 1 at New York Jets
Jeremy Hill started 15 games last season and was the leading rusher for Cincinnati. However, his rushing yardage total dropped over 300 yards as he continues to share the running back duties with Gio Bernard. Hill played less snaps, but did carry the ball more. Bernard was a better receiver and averaged more yards per carry.
The Jets are the Week 1 opponent and were 2nd in aFPA to running backs, so it will probably be tough for the Bengals to consistently run the ball. The running back duo factor along with the matchup hurts Hill's fantasy value.
The third year back ranks as a high-end RB3 or flex for Week 1. So depending on your starting lineup, there could be a spot for him if you can flex a third running back.
Fantasy Upside
Jeremy Hill has shown he can be a very capable NFL back. He ran for 100-plus yards five times his rookie season, plus he was carrying the ball a minimum 20 times for most of the second half of the season. He also managed to score 20 rushing touchdowns through his first two NFL seasons, 11 of those coming last year.
Fantasy Downside
With the exception of touchdowns, his numbers slipped last year. Total yardage, yards per carry and offensive snaps were all way down because even though he started 15 games, Giovani Bernard seemed to get more action and put up better results. Hill also had fumbling issues and is not as good as a receiver as Bernard.
2016 Bottom Line
Hill shares the backfield with Bernard which lessens his fantasy value. Hill still should be the goal line back which means he should still get touchdowns, but he could easily only see the field again with 43 percent of the snaps like he did in 2015. Hill is being drafted around the 5th or 6th round which is exactly where you should take him. Just remember, you are getting a time-share back and probably the backup from a numbers standpoint.
Week 18 vs Pittsburgh
Jeremy Hill continues to be the primary ball carrier for the Bengals. He rushed 16 times for 96 yards in the regular season finale and also scored his 11th rushing touchdown. In two appearances against Pittsburgh, Hill has rushed 22 times for 76 yards and zero touchdowns.
The Steelers are ranked 6th in aFPA to running backs and most teams in the playoffs have very good run defenses. Despite the matchup, Hill is still a good play on Saturday as there just aren't very many highly ranked players. Consider Hill a top fantasy running back for WIld Card weekend, but don't expect big numbers from him.
Week 17 vs Baltimore
Jeremy Hill continues to be the primary ball carrier for Cincy with his second straight game with 19 carries. Although the snaps are fairly even between him and Gio Bernard, Hill is still the No. 1 running back. Last week, he managed 63 yards but was kept out of the end zone after scoring two touchdowns the previous week.
The running game matchup is not favorable as Baltimore is 3rd in aFPA to running backs. Even though Hill is the primary back, we have seen too many games where Bernard has gotten more touches and even snaps. As it has been the second half of the season, Hill rates a high-end RB3 or flex.
Week 16 vs Denver
Jeremy Hill received less snaps than Gio Bernard, but he carried the ball 19 times which tied for his second biggest workload of the season. More important, Hill received the goal line touches and the result was two rushing touchdowns. With QB Andy Dalton out, the Bengals will rely more on the running game.
Cincy will face Denver, who is 10th in aFPA to running backs. The workload should still be good, but like every week, Hill is splitting stats with Bernard. Start Hill as a high-end RB3 or flex for Week 16.
Week 15 at San Francisco
Ok, we give up. Giovani Bernard played 66 percent of the snaps compared to 33 percent for Jeremy Hill. This is exactly the opposite of last week. Hill only had nine touches for 24 yards. Now, this makes sense considering the Bengals got down and went to the passing game where Bernard is used more. You just don't know what direction the game will go.
The matchup for Cincy is great this week as the Niners are 31st in aFPA to running backs. We will read this as the running game should be used plenty and that favors Hill. Start Hill as a solid RB2 for Week 15 against San Francisco.
Week 14 vs Pittsburgh
It's now Jeremy Hill's advantage in the ongoing running back shuffle in Cincinnati. Hill had almost twice as many snaps and 16 more touches than Giovani Bernard. He carried the ball 22 times for 98 yards and a touchdown. For the season, Bernard still has the overall snap advantage, so it has become very hard to predict.
The Bengals face Pittsburgh who is 5th in aFPA to running backs. Hill had 16 touches for 68 yards in the first meeting, but has had some success running the football against the Steelers, averaging 4.5 yards per carry. With the uncertainty of touches and a good Steelers defense against the run, Hill is a risky play for Week 14. Start him only has a high-end RB3 or flex.
Week 13 vs Browns
Jeremy Hill did split the snaps with Giovani Bernard last week, but he did have his highest rushing total of the season (86 yards). It has not been easy to predict Bernard and Hill's playing time and involvement in the offense which leaves owners in a tough spot. Hill is listed as questionable with an ankle injury but is expected to play.
Hill has a good matchup this week against Cleveland who is 26th in aFPA to running backs. He rushed for 52 yards in the first meeting with the Browns earlier this season. However, the lack of consistency in touches for Hill leads us to a ranking of a high-end RB3 or flex for Week 13.
Week 12 vs St. Louis
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eremy Hill was the leading rusher for the Bengals last week with 13 carries for 45 yards. However, he did fumble and only played 32 percent of the snaps. The running back situation has been very unpredictable for Cincy, so it's been hard to predict what kind of volume Hill and his teammate Gio Bernard are going to get.
The matchup is favorable this week, as the Rams are 24th in aFPA to running backs, but the snap count worries us. Hill is an RB3 or flex as best for Week 12.
