Week 1 at Minnesota Vikings
Ito Smith looked questionable at best during the preseason but was able to hang onto the second running back spot on the depth chart per ESPN and CBS. Smith is the clear backup the Devonta Freeman and has not performed well when given the opportunity. In 14 games last season, he failed to rush for more than 60 yards in a single game and only scored four rushing touchdowns.
4for4’s rankings expert John Paulsen has Smith as the PPR RB62 in Week 1 with a median projection of only 5.2 fantasy points. Fantasy owners should look elsewhere for starters.
Fantasy Upside
In 2018, Ito Smith and Tevin Coleman were the primary beneficiaries of Devonta Freeman’s knee, foot, and groin injuries. Coleman went to the San Francisco 49ers in the off-season, which makes Smith the second running back on the depth chart, per ESPN and CBS. Smith received a little bit of hype back in February when Head Coach Dan Quinn said he expects Smith to have a “significant increase” in offensive opportunities. The Falcons used both of their first-round draft picks on offensive linemen. They selected Chris Lindstrom with the 14th overall pick and Kaleb McGary with the 31st pick. Our offensive line expert, Justin Edwards, projects the offensive line to improve this season and ranked them as the 15th best offensive line in the NFL.
Fantasy Downside
Smith played 14 games last year but did not take full advantage of his opportunity. He failed to rush for more than 60 yards in a single game and only scored four rushing touchdowns. Similarly, he struggled in the receiving game, as he finished the season with 27 receptions, 152 receiving yards, and zero touchdowns. Smith suffered a knee injury in the fourth quarter of Week 15 against the Arizona Cardinals. Several days later, he had season-ending knee scope surgery to repair his meniscus injury.
2019 Bottom Line
The best-case scenario for Smith is the Falcons use him as frequently as they used Tevin Coleman when he was second on the depth chart to Devonta Freeman. Smith will need to prove his worth this year because the Falcons drafted Qadree Ollison in the fifth round of the NFL draft and added former Panther and Patriot, Kenjon Barner.
Week 15 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Ito Smith rushed 11 times for 60 yards and caught three-of-four targets for 14 yards in the Falcons’ Week 14 loss to the Packers. He has now out-touched Tevin Coleman in back-to-back weeks. Coleman is a free agent at the end of the season and with Devonta Freeman under contract for big money next season, there’s a good chance the Falcons will not re-sign Coleman. Thus, perhaps Smith will continue to out-touch Coleman moving forward as Atlanta gets a closer look at the rookie for next season. Coleman is still the safer play because he remains Atlanta’s starter, but Smith will be a sneaky start on Sunday when the Falcons host a Cardinals defense that ranks No. 25 against fantasy running backs. Ranked as our RB35 for Week 15, Smith is an option for desperate owners looking for an RB2.
Week 14 at Green Bay Packers
Ito Smith rushed seven times for 22 yards in the Falcons’ Week 13 loss to the Ravens and added one catch for zero yards. Baltimore’s defense completely shut down Atlanta’s offense, which continues to be handcuffed by horrendous play from its offensive line. For some reason, Smith out-touched Tevin Coleman 8-7 but neither back was effective. With no running game and no hope for the playoffs, we would avoid most of the Falcons’ skill position players when they travel to Green Bay on Sunday. Ranked as our RB51, leave Smith on your waiver wire.
Week 13 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Ito Smith rushed four times for zero yards in the Falcons’ Week 12 loss to the Saints. Both he and Tevin Coleman were shut down by a New Orleans front four that did whatever it wanted to Atlanta’s offensive line. The same thing is likely to happen on Sunday when the Falcons host the Ravens, who rank No. 1 against fantasy running backs this season. Ranked as our RB48 for Week 13, avoid Smith on Sunday.
Week 12 at New Orleans Saints
Ito Smith rushed six times for 10 yards and caught both of his targets for 12 yards in the Falcons’ Week 11 loss to the Cowboys. Smith has flashed at times this season but it doesn’t make sense why Tevin Coleman continues to concede touches to the rookie. While Smith has scored four touchdowns this season, it’s no longer feasible for desperate owners to play him as a RB2. Ranked as our RB42 for Week 12, avoid Smith on Thursday night when the Falcons visit the Saints.
Week 11 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Ito Smith rushed four times for 11 yards in the Falcons’ Week 10 loss to the Browns. He also caught four passes for an additional 15 yards but his 26 total yards were his fewest in four games. The problem was game flow, as Atlanta got behind early in the third quarter and once the floodgates opened in the second half, the Falcons were forced to put the ball in the air repeatedly. If you’ve been using Smith as a desperation RB2, there’s no reason to go away from him Sunday when the Falcons host the Cowboys. He’s still the No. 2 back behind Tevin Coleman and he’ll continue to receive touches. Basically, he’s still a risk as a RB2 but that was the case before his dud a week ago in Cleveland. Smith is our RB35 for Week 11.
Week 10 at Cleveland Browns
Ito Smith rushed 10 times for 60 yards and a touchdown while also catching 1-of-2 targets for four yards in the Falcons’ Week 9 win over the Redskins. He displayed great effort on his touchdown, leaping off a defender and keeping his legs moving while driving into the end zone. Tevin Coleman out-touched Smith 18 to 11 but Smith remains a viable FLEX option as Atlanta’s No. 2 back. Ranked as our RB35, Smith has a great matchup against a Browns defense that ranks 28th against fantasy running backs. Just understand Coleman is the team’s lead back.
Week 9 at Washington Redskins
Ito Smith rushed seven times for 16 yards in the Falcons’ Week 7 win over the Giants. Smith continues to be out-played and out-touched by starter Tevin Coleman but he remains Atlanta’s No. 2 back with Devonta Freeman shelved for the next month-plus. Ranked as our RB38 for Week 9, avoid Smith on Sunday when the Falcons travel to D.C. Washington owns the No. 5 defense against fantasy running backs this season.
Week 7 vs. New York Giants
Ito Smith rushed 11 times for 22 yards and a touchdown in the Falcons’ Week 6 win over the Bucs. Now that Devonta Freeman has been placed on injured reserve with various injuries, Smith is entrenched as Atlanta’s No. 2 back behind Tevin Coleman. A smaller, shifty back, Smith has some FLEX appeal having scored a touchdown in three straight games. He ranks as our RB33 for Week 7 against the Giants, who rank No. 22 against fantasy running backs. If you’re hurting at the RB position, you could do worse than the touchdown-dependent Smith.
