AFC Championship vs. Pittsburgh
Dion Lewis was given 13 carries in which he accumulated 41 yards rushing, 23 yards receiving (and a touchdown on seven targets) and a 98-yard kickoff return touchdown in a 34-16 win against the Texans in the Division Round. Lewis, who had been sharing early-down work with LeGarrette Blount, emerged as the lead back against the Texans, handling 62.5-percent of the touches in the New England backfield. The Patriots stuck with Lewis despite two fumbles, even giving him the goal-line work, which normally would have gone to Blount. Lewis, now averaging 14.5 carries and 1.7 catches over the Pats' last four games, will almost certainly dominate RB touches against the Steelers Sunday. Pittsburgh ranks 19th at defending RBs out of the backfield per DVOA, but are one of the worst matchups overall in regards to RB aFPA.
Divisional Round vs Houston
Dion Lewis was given 11 carries in which he accumulated 48 yards and also had two receptions for four yards in a 35-14 win against the Dolphins in Week 17. Per Joe Holka’s Rushing Expectation, Dion Lewis performed above expectation in his 2015 sample by 6.3% in the run game and 13.8% in the passing game in 2015. There’s plenty of receiving work to go around, but as long as both White and Lewis are getting targets, his ceiling is a bit capped. This committee makes any backfield option volatile, even in a great matchup vs. Houston according to RB aFPA.
Week 17 at Miami
Dion Lewis was given 16 carries in which he accumulated 52 yards and also had one reception for five yards in a 41-3 win against the Jets in Week 16. Per Joe Holka’s Rushing Expectation, Dion Lewis performed above expectation in his 2015 sample by 6.3% in the run game and 13.8% in the passing game in 2015. There’s plenty of receiving work to go around, but as long as both White and Lewis are getting targets, his ceiling is a bit capped. It is a slightly below-average matchup in regards to RB aFPA, but Lewis will be a mid-ranged RB3 in Week 17 against the Dolphins.
Week 16 vs. New York Jets
Dion Lewis was given 18 carries on which he accumulated 95 yards (and also had two receptions for nine yards) in a 16-3 win against the Broncos in Week 15. There’s plenty of receiving work to go around, but as long as both White and Lewis are getting targets, his ceiling is a bit capped. It is a slightly above average matchup in regards to RB aFPA against the Jets, but Lewis will be a high-end RB3 in Week 16.
Week 15 at Denver
Dion Lewis was given three carries in which he accumulated 14 yards and also had one reception for five yards on a single target in a 30-23 win against the Ravens in Week 14. There’s plenty of receiving work to go around, but as long as both James White and Lewis are getting targets, neither one is likely to be dependable or productive enough to roster. Believe it or not, this is a good matchup for the running game against the Broncos, as they rank as one of the most favorable matchups in the league in regards to RB aFPA. Lewis will be a low-end option in this crowded backfield in Week 15.
Week 14 vs. Baltimore
Dion Lewis was given five carries in which he accumulated 27 yards and also had four receptions for 11 yards on fuve targets in a 26-10 win against the Rams in Week 13. Per Joe Holka’s Rushing Expectation, Dion Lewis performed above expectation in his 2015 sample by 6.3% in the run game and 13.8% in the passing game in 2015. This situation is hard to trust in fantasy, as Lewis and James White seem to be sharing the passing game role in this offense out of the backfield. New England is touchdown home favorite against the Ravens, who rank as one of the worst matchups in the league in regards to RB aFPA. Lewis will be a high-end RB4 in Week 14.
Week 13 vs. Los Angeles
Dion Lewis was given six carries in which he accumulated 24 yards and also had four receptions for 37 yards on seven targets in a 22-17 comeback win against the Jets in Week 12. Per Joe Holka’s Rushing Expectation, Dion Lewis performed above expectation in his 2015 sample by 6.3% in the run game and 13.8% in the passing game in 2015. His snap counts are still too low to feel confident in playing him, as he played just 23-of-73 last week. New England is heavy home favorite against the Rams, who rank slightly less favorable than the middle of the pack in RB aFPA. Lewis will be a mid-range RB3 against the Rams.
Week 12 at New York Jets
Dion Lewis was given five carries, in which he accumulated 23 yards and also had three receptions for 26 yards on five targets in a 30-17 win against the 49ers in Week 11. Per Joe Holka’s Rushing Expectation, Dion Lewis performed above expectation in his 2015 sample by 6.3% in the run game and 13.8% in the passing game in 2015. He played just 21 snaps last week and will continue to be eased into this offense. He is barely on the fantasy radar for Week 12.
Fantasy Upside{Dion Lewis is the best running back on this team, and was one of the best in the entire NFL last season through eight weeks. In PPR leagues he is an elite option but he can also do plenty of damage between the tackles. In the six games he was healthy Lewis averaged 12.8 touches for 95 yards and 0.67 touchdowns. Lewis received 13 red zone carries in just seven games last seasons and remains a significant touchdown threat regardless of his competition. According to Rushing Expectation, a running back methodology by Joe Holka, Lewis performed 6.3% better than his offensive line expectation in regards to success rate and 13.8 percent above expectation per target.
Fantasy Downside
Lewis is coming off of an ACL injury that ended his season in 2015. Injuries have plagued his career and has had issues with fumbling in the past. If this continues head coach Bill Belichick has shown no hesitation in sitting talented players in favor of reliability. The game plans of Belichick and McDaniel’s are very game specific and can favor of a big back like LeGarrette Blount in certain situations.
2016 Bottom Line
Lewis will be a stud regardless of game script as he is one of the most versatile weapons in the league. He is great in pass protection and will remain efficient between the tackles as well as a consistent option in the intermediate passing game. In PPR leagues, we like him much higher than his current ADP.
Week 9 vs Washington
Going into Week 8 with some question marks around his health, Lewis looked great en route to a combined 112 yards and TD, good for RB4 in standard leagues. His 6-93-1 line in the passing game aided in PPR leagues, where he finished as RB2. Lewis has established himself as a weekly fantasy starter, regardless of matchup.
This weekend, he faces a Washington defense ranked amongst the stingiest aFPA matchups to RBs, but we have no real matchup or gameflow concerns about Lewis or the Patriots. Owners nervous about limited usage in the case of a blowout would do well to recall Week 3. In a blowout versus Jacksonville, Lewis still managed to play 43 percent of the team's snaps and finish as a high-end RB2 on the weekend. This weekend, we have Lewis as a fringe RB1 to top RB2 in standard leagues, depending on your league size. He is a solid RB1 in PPR leagues.
